вторник, 31 июля 2018 г.
понедельник, 30 июля 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 30/07: Copper prices fail to rise on Escondida labor development
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were broadly weaker on the morning of Monday July 30, with zinc (-0.9%), copper (-0.7%), lead (-0.2%) and nickel (-0.1%) all down, while aluminium and tin prices were up by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.
The weakness in copper – at $6,202 per tonne as at 06.15am London time – comes despite the union at Chile’s Escondida copper mine, the world’s largest, rejecting BHP’s final contract offer and agreeing to vote on whether to go on strike.
Volume has been below average with 4,495 lots traded across the complex as at 6.15am London time.
Precious metals were for the most part weaker this morning with spot gold, silver and platinum down by 0.3%, 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, while palladium prices were up 0.6%. Spot gold was recently quoted at $1,220.03 per oz.
In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed, but with more of an upside bias. Lead prices led on the downside with a 2% drop, while the most-actively traded September copper contract was off by 0.2% at 49,920 yuan ($7,327) per tonne. The rest were up between 0.3% for zinc prices and 1.7% for tin prices.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 0.2% at 49,740-49,910 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has climbed to 8.04.
In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 0.4% at 487.50 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was up by 1.6%, while the December gold and silver contracts were unchanged.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were down by 0.1% at $74.25 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was easier at 2.9607%, while the German 10-year bund yield was also weaker at 0.4019%.
Asian equity markets were weaker on Monday: Nikkei (-0.68%), Hang Seng (-0.78%), CSI 300 (-0.50%), ASX200 (-0.43%) and the Kospi (-0.16%). This follows a mixed performance in western markets on Friday; in the US, the Dow Jones closed down by 0.3% at 25,451.06, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.51% at 3,527.18.
The dollar index at 94.66 is firmer within its recent 93.71-95.66 range. On the chart, it looks like the dollar is building the right shoulder of a large inverse head-and-shoulder formation. The other major currencies we follow are consolidating in what is going to be a heavy week for central bank decisions with the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, all setting policy this week: sterling (1.3113), the euro (1.1664), the yen (111.06) and the Australian dollar (0.7397).
The yuan remains on a back footing and was recently quoted at 6.8280. The other emerging market currencies we follow are slightly firmer, which may well indicate a gradual return to risk-on.
On the economic agenda, data out already shows a 1.8% gain in Japan’s retail sales, after a previous rise of 0.6%. Data out later includes German and Spanish consumer price indices (CPI), a variety of UK lending and money supply data, as well as US data that includes pending home sales and a loan officer survey. Tuesday and Wednesday are going to be very data-heavy days, which should help provide an update on the start of the global economy.
The base metals, after having seen some improvement in recent weeks, are looking weaker again, which suggests that although some support had been found there was limited follow-through buying. The fact that copper prices are down this morning despite an increased risk of a strike at Escondida, suggests that sentiment remains weak.
As mentioned above, given all the data and central bank meetings this week, traders should get a clearer view on how the global economy is operating in the face of the trade wars. So we expect choppy trading to continue – that said, we would not be surprised to see a positive, albeit delayed, reaction to the Escondida development.
The precious metals are performing in a similar way to the base metals, the show of some strength in recent weeks has faded and prices are slipping again. For now, at these price levels, we are neither bullish, nor bearish on gold and expect the precious metals to follow the lead of the metals complex as a whole.
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воскресенье, 29 июля 2018 г.
суббота, 28 июля 2018 г.
пятница, 27 июля 2018 г.
четверг, 26 июля 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 26/07: Metals consolidate recent gains; markets likely to get nervous ahead of key events
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mixed on the morning of Thursday July 26, with lead leading on the upside with a 0.7% gain to $2,168 per tonne, while tin was the worst performer with a decline of 0.4% to $19,765 per tonne.
Copper was up by 0.2% at $6,316 per tonne – the high earlier this morning being $6,378 per tonne.
Volume has, however, been above average – some 8,746 lots had traded across the complex as at 6.55am London time.
Some progress on United States/European Union trade talks has provided some cheer in the market, but it is not all plain sailing with the trade rift between China and the US still wide open.
Precious metals were in consolidation mode on Thursday – spot gold, silver and platinum prices were all off by 0.2%, with gold at $1,229.58 per oz, while palladium prices were down by 0.4%.
This follows a firmer day on Wednesday that saw prices gain by an average of 1.3% – led by increases in the platinum group metals (PGMs).
In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were similarly mixed; zinc was the main mover, with the metal’s most-actively traded September contract down by 1.4%, while the September aluminium contract fell by 0.5%. The rest were up between 0.1% and 0.2%, with the most-actively traded September copper contract up by 0.1% at 50,060 yuan ($7,386) per tonne.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 0.2% at 49,860-49,980 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has eased to 7.92, from 7.94 on Wednesday.
In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by 0.3% at 475 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was down by 0.2%, the December gold was little changed and the December silver was up by 0.1%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were down by 0.16% at $74.27 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was firmer at 2.9653%, while the German 10-year bund yield was also stronger at 0.4170%.
Asian equity markets were for the most part weaker on Thursday: Nikkei (-0.17%), Hang Seng (-0.64%), CSI 300 (-0.91%), ASX200 (-0.04%), while the Kospi climbed 0.64%. This follows a mixed performance in western markets on Wednesday; in the US, the Dow Jones closed up by 0.68% at 25,414.10, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.43% at 3,468.45, as the market prepared for the US/EU trade talks.
The dollar index at 94.14 is drifting again within its recent 93.71-95.66 range. On the chart, it looks like the dollar is building the right shoulder of a large inverse head-and-shoulder formation. Sterling (1.3199) and the yen (110.65) continue their rebounds, while the euro (1.1734) and the Australian dollar (0.7437) are firmer, albeit within recent ranges.
The yuan set a low at 6.8245 on Tuesday – it started to rebound on Wednesday, but was weakening again on Thursday and was recently quoted at 6.7804. The other emerging market currencies we follow were firmer, which may well indicate a return to risk-on.
On the economic agenda, data out already shows a 1.2% gain in Japan’s services producer price index (PPI), while Germany’s GfK consumer climate reading eased to 10.6 from 10.7. Data out later includes the Spanish unemployment rate, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and press conference, along with US data includes initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and natural gas storage. There is also data on China’s leading indicators later this afternoon.
Most of the base metals have found some support off their recent lows, but it is too early to say with confidence that the bases are in place as there are some fairly large overhead tails on recent candlesticks that suggest scale-up selling pressure.
Copper has been one of the bigger movers of late, but traders are likely to now wait for a decision from the labor union vote at the Escondida copper mine on July 28. In a number of the other metals, sideways trading within previous days’ ranges – which is most noticeable in zinc – suggests energy is building up for a directional move.
Given the extent of the sell-off since the June highs, we feel the metals have been looking oversold and the better flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data, combined with China’s move to support its economy in this tricky trade war environment, as well as some progress on US/EU trade talks, bodes well. Some of the key points over the next week will be the Escondida vote and China’s PMI data out on July 31.
The sell-off in gold prices has abated for now and prices are consolidating; silver is following gold’s lead, while the PGMs’ rebounds look stronger. For now we are neither bullish, nor bearish on gold and expect the precious metals to follow the lead of the metals complex as a whole.
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среда, 25 июля 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 25/07: Metals generally firmer following Tuesday’s gains
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were for the most part firmer on the morning of Wednesday July 25, with the complex up by an average of 0.4%. Tin (-0.2%) was the only metal showing a loss. Lead prices (+1%) led the advance, while copper prices rose by 0.4% to $6,290 per tonne.
Volume has, however, been average – some 5,259 lots had traded across the complex as at 6.41am London time.
The combination of some fresh stimulus from China with better flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data out of Europe and the United States boosted sentiment on Tuesday, and that led to a rebound that saw the complex close up by an average of 1.4% – led by a 2.2% rebound in copper, that had at one stage been up by 3.3%.
The precious metals prices were also firmer on Wednesday morning with bullion prices up by 0.2% and the platinum group metal prices up by 0.6%. This follows gains in silver and platinum prices of 0.6% and 0.2% respectively on Tuesday.
In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were up across the board with gains averaging 0.9%. As on the LME, lead was the outperformer with a 1.6% gain, while the most-actively traded September copper contract price increased by 1.4% to 49,880 yuan ($7,348) per tonne.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 1.3% at 49,740-49,880 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has eased to 7.94, from 8.03 on Tuesday.
In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 0.4% at 477 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was up by 0.3%, the December gold was down by 0.1% and the December silver was up by 0.3%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were up by 0.29% at $73.93 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was weaker at 2.9383%, while the German 10-year bund yield was also weaker at 0.3947%.
Asian equity markets were mixed on Wednesday: Nikkei (+0.41%), Hang Seng (+0.64%), CSI 300 (-0.16%), Kospi (-0.35%) and the ASX200 (-0.35%), which shows some consolidation after strong initial gains following Tuesday’s Chinese stimulus boost. This follows a strong performance in western markets on Tuesday; in the United States, the Dow Jones closed up by 0.79% at 25,241.94, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.85% at 3,483.31.
The dollar index at 94.58 is consolidating after July 20’s weakness when it dropped from the previous day’s high of 95.66. Sterling is firmer at 1.3151, while the rest are consolidating with the Australian dollar at 0.7398, the euro at 1.1684 and the yen 111.19.
The yuan set a low at 6.8245 on Tuesday – it was recently quoted at 6.7869, while the other emerging market currencies we follow are also firmer, which may well indicate a return to risk-on.
On the economic agenda, there is data on German Ifo business climate, the European Union’s money supply and private loans as well as UK data on high street lending and realized sales. US data out later includes new home sales and crude oil inventories.
We said on Tuesday that base metals prices have been trading sideways in recent days, often within the previous day’s range, which suggests consolidation. This pause is often a precursor to a bigger move. We saw that unfold on Tuesday, so now the big question is whether there will be follow-through buying, or will the move turn out to be another “dead cat bounce”?
Given the extent of the sell-off since the June highs we feel the metals are looking oversold and the better flash PMI data, combined with China’s move to support its economy in this tricky trade war environment, bodes well. That said, any rebound may well be volatile as US President Donald Trump fights his trade war via Twitter.
Underlying tails on the spot gold price chart suggest dip-buying was present on July 19 and 20 but there was little follow-through buying on Monday and Tuesday. We wait to see if more emerges.
Silver is following gold’s lead, while platinum and palladium seem to be catching the same tailwind that is pushing the base metals.
The post METALS MORNING VIEW 25/07: Metals generally firmer following Tuesday’s gains appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
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METALS MORNING VIEW 24/07: Metals mixed, but China’s intervention may provide support
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mixed on the morning of Tuesday July 24; while copper prices were up by 0.4% at $6,154 per tonne, aluminium and tin prices were down by 0.4% and the rest were little changed.
Volume has, however, been above average – some 13,479 lots had traded across the complex as at 8.05am London time.
Gold and silver prices were a little weaker, with spot gold down by 0.25% at $1,221.64 per oz, silver off by 0.1%, platinum up by 0.1% and palladium unchanged – the latter put in a strong performance on Monday when prices rallied by 2%.
In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mostly firmer – all the metals other than tin made gains. Aluminium prices led the way with a 1.25% rally, followed by a 1% gain in copper, a 0.6% gain in lead and a 0.3% rise in zinc. Nickel was unchanged and tin dropped by 0.6%.
The most-active September copper contract was at 49,420 yuan ($7,250) per tonne.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 0.9% at 49,070-49,300 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was stronger at 8.03, up from 7.92 on Monday. This implies SHFE copper is strengthening relative to LME copper.
In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 0.2% at 474.50 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was down by 0.3% and December gold and silver were both down by 0.1%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were up by 0.28% at $73.09 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was firmer at 2.9604% while the German 10-year bund yield was stronger at 0.4120%.
Asian equity markets were firmer on Tuesday: Nikkei (+0.51%), Hang Seng (+1.38%), CSI 300 (+1.59%), Kospi (0.48%) and the ASX200 (0.61%). This follows a mixed performance in western markets on Monday; in the United States, the Dow Jones closed down by 0.06% at 25,044.29 while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.39% at 3,467.59.
Equities in Asia have been buoyed by China’s announcement of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and a $74 billion injection by the central bank into the banking system.
The dollar index at 94.70 is consolidating after Friday’s weakness when it dropped from Thursday’s high at 95.66. Sterling and the Australian dollar are also consolidating at 1.3103 and 0.7376 respectively; the euro is weaker (1.1688), the yen is firmer (111.15) and so too is the Australian dollar (0.7417).
The yuan gapped lower to 6.8091; the other emerging market currencies we follow are quite mixed. While the he peso and the real are strengthening, the ringgit and the rupiah are weaker and the rand is consolidating.
On the economic agenda, data out already shows Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.6 from 53 while its core CPI was up 0.4% after a 0.5% rise previously.
The French manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.1 from 52.5 but the French services PMI dropped to 55.3 from 55.9, while Germany’s manufacturing PMI rose to 57.3 from 55.9 and the German services PMI eased to 54.4 from 54.5.
Data out later includes EU PMIs, UK industrial order expectations and US manufacturing and services PMIs as well as the Richmond manufacturing index.
In recent days, base metals prices have been trading sideways, often within the previous day’s ranges, which suggests consolidation. This pause is often a precursor to a bigger move.
The trends are firmly to the downside but, given that China has started to intervene in markets, we would be on the lookout for buying coming into the base metals. So far today the goodwill from China’s move has lifted equities in Asia; will it flow into the metals too?
Underlying tails on the spot gold price chart suggest dip-buying was present on July 19 and 20 but there was little follow-through buying on Monday although some appears to be emerging this morning. We wait to see if more emerges.
Silver is following gold’s lead while platinum remains weak and palladium is rebounding.
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вторник, 24 июля 2018 г.
понедельник, 23 июля 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 23/07: Metals prices consolidate after Friday’s rebounds
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were up across the board by an average of 0.5% on the morning of Monday July 23. Gains ranged between 0.1% for aluminium and 1.2% for zinc, with copper up by 0.3% at $6,172 per tonne.
Volume has been above average with 10,555 lots traded across the complex as at 7.49am London time.
This follows a strong performance by the LME base metals on Friday, with the complex closing up by an average of 0.8%.
Gold prices were little changed at $1,230.33 per tonne this morning, with silver prices unchanged at $15.48 per oz, while platinum prices were up by 0.2% and palladium prices were off by 0.3%. This follows on from Friday, where the precious metals had average gains of 1.7%.
In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed: lead and tin were weaker, down by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, while copper, aluminium and zinc were up between 1.2% and 1.5%, and nickel was up by 0.5%. The most-active September copper contract was up by 1.2% at 48,920 yuan ($7,226) per tonne.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 1% at 48,620-48,850 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 7.92, down from 7.97 on Friday.
In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 0.9% at 473.50 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile on the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was up by 0.8%, and the December gold and silver were both up by 0.6%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were up by 0.11% at $73.08 per barrel this morning and the yield on US 10-year treasuries was firmer at 2.8961%, while the German 10-year bund yield was stronger at 0.3900%.
Asian equity markets were mixed on Monday: Nikkei (-1.33%) the Kospi (-0.87%), the ASX200 (-0.93%), the Hang Seng (+0.21%) and CSI 300 (+0.87%). This follows a weaker performance in western markets on Friday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 0.03% at 25,058.12, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.33% at 3,460.03.
The dollar index at 94.43 is consolidating after Friday’s weakness that saw it drop from Thursday’s high at 95.66. Sterling is rallying (1.3141), as are the euro (1.1725), the yen (111.00) and the Australian dollar (0.7417).
The yuan remains weak at 6.7743 and most of the other emerging market currencies we follow are on a back foot, the exception is the real that is getting some lift off recent low ground.
On the economic agenda there is a German Bundesbank monthly report, data on EU consumer confidence and US existing home sales. In addition, Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent is speaking.
After long drawn-out price weakness, the base metals seem to have found some support and prices are seeing some follow-through buying after last Friday’s rebounds. Key will be whether there is further follow-through buying now as that could prompt short-covering as well as bargain hunting. That said, the trade war rhetoric continues so consumers may not have that much confidence and therefore may not be in any hurry to chase prices higher.
Underlying tails on the spot gold price chart suggests dip-buying was around on July 19 and 20, so we wait to see if there is follow-through buying. Given US President Donald Trump is raising the geopolitical temperature over Iran’s oil exports as well as continuing to wage trade wars, it would not be surprising if gold started to attract some haven buying now that prices have pulled back by around 11% from April’s high.
The post METALS MORNING VIEW 23/07: Metals prices consolidate after Friday’s rebounds appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
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воскресенье, 22 июля 2018 г.
суббота, 21 июля 2018 г.
пятница, 20 июля 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 20/07: Second rebound attempt in three days for metals
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were up across the board by an average of 0.5% on the morning of Friday July 20. Gains were ranged between 0.2% for aluminium and lead and 1.1% for nickel, with copper up by 0.8% at $6,104 per tonne.
Volume has been above average with 11,002 lots traded across the complex as at 7.47am London time.
This follows an extremely weak performance by the LME base metals on Thursday, when at their lows prices were down by an average of 3.1%, led by a 4.8% drop in zinc prices. They ended the day being down by an average of 1.6%, with copper setting a low of $5,988 per tonne.
Gold prices were little changed at $1,222.81 per tonne this morning, while the more industrial precious metals were firmer by an average of 0.8%. This follows from Thursday’s losses that averaged 1.7%, led by a 3.8% fall in palladium prices.
In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed, with copper, aluminium and lead prices off between being slightly lower for copper and 0.4% for lead prices, with the most-actively traded September copper contract at 48,670 yuan ($7,195) per tonne.
Interestingly spot copper prices in Changjiang were up down by 1.1% at 48,180-48,340 yuan per tonne, which highlights how prices were lower in the morning when spot copper prices were set, with the futures since rebounding. The LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has strengthened to 7.97 from 7.83 on Thursday, suggesting SHFE copper prices have held up relatively better than LME prices.
In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 0.2% at 471.50 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile on the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was up by 0.1%, the December gold was up by 0.3% and the December silver was up by 0.1%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were up by 0.57% at $72.92 per barrel this morning and the yield on US 10-year treasuries was weaker at 2.8426%, while the German 10-year bund yield was stronger at 0.3160%.
Asian equity markets were generally firmer on Friday, the exception being the Nikkei (-0.29%) as the yen strengthened: Hang Seng (0.61%), CSI 300 (1.82%), the Kospi (0.30%) and the ASX200 (0.37%). This follows a weaker performance in western markets on Thursday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 0.53% at 25,064.50, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.39% at 3,471.64.
The dollar index is consolidating after Thursday’s strength that saw it reach 95.66, which breached the double high seen in the second half of June at 95.54 – it was recently quoted at 95.15. This has led to consolidation in the euro at 1.1644 and the Australian dollar at 0.7362, while sterling is weaker at 1.3007and the yen is firmer at 112.38.
The yuan weakened to a low of 6.8105 earlier today before rebounding to 6.7723 and there are reports that China’s central bank may be intervening. Most of the other emerging market currencies we follow are on a back foot, the exception is the real that is getting some lift off recent low ground.
On the economic agenda, Japan’s consumer price index (CPI) edged higher by 0.8%, from 0.7% previously, while the country’s all industries activity climbed 0.1%, having previously been up 1%. Germany’s producer price index (PPI) climbed 0.3%, after a 0.5% gain. Later there is data on the European Union’s current account and on the United Kingdom’s public sector borrowing requirement.
After Thursday’s slump, the base metals prices are having another go at rebounding, as they did on Wednesday. With two attempted rebounds in three days, it suggests bargain hunting is emerging – whether this turns into another “dead-cat bounce” remains to be seen. But, with copper prices having retreated 18.5% since the June high, it may be that the sell-off has run its course for now, even if the US trade war has not finished yet. If there is follow-through buying then short-covering could lead to some sharp rebounds.
Underlying tails on the spot gold price chart suggests dip buying was around on Thursday and earlier this morning. Given the precious metals have sold off along with the industrial metals, then a rising tide may well lift all boats/metals. If gold price do find a base then these low price levels may well mean gold starts to be seen now as a relatively cheap haven asset next time one is needed.
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четверг, 19 июля 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 19/07: ‘Dead cat bounce’ after Wednesday’s rebound in metals prices stalls
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were down across the board by an average of 1% on the morning of Thursday July 19. Losses were ranged between a 0.1% drop for aluminium and a 2% fall for zinc. The three-month copper price was down by 0.8% at $6,129 per tonne.
Volume has been above average with 9,737 lots traded across the complex as at 7.22am London time.
This follows a generally stronger performance by the LME base metals on Wednesday, when the majority of the complex ended the day higher. The exception was lead which closed down by 0.2%, while the rest were up by an average of 1.2% – led by a 4.4% rebound in zinc.
Gold, silver and platinum prices were weaker again this morning, down between 0.3% for spot gold ($1,222.84 per oz) and 0.7% for silver, while palladium was up by 0.2%.
In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were up across the board as they took their cue from Wednesday’s LME direction. September zinc led the way with a 3.9% rally, while the most-actively traded September copper contract was up by 0.4% at 48,700 yuan ($7,249) per tonne.
In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 0.6% at 469 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile on the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was up by 1.3%, the December gold was up by 0.1% and the December silver was down by 0.2%.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 0.7% at 48,690-48,940 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was weaker at 7.83.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were down by 0.51% at $72.68 per barrel this morning and the yield on US 10-year treasuries was firmer at 2.8840%. The German 10-year bund yield was weaker at 0.2880%.
Asian equity markets were generally down on Thursday: Nikkei (-0.13%), Hang Seng (-0.26%), CSI 300 (-0.17%), the Kospi (-0.34%), while the ASX200 ticked up by 0.28%. This follows a stronger performance in western markets on Wednesday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.32% at 25,199.29, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.80% at 3,485.08.
The dollar index is climbing again and was recently quoted at 95.19, this after a recent low of 93.71. We now wait to see if this rally clears the double high seen in the second half of June at 95.54. With the dollar stronger, the major currencies are weaker: euro (1.1625), sterling (1.3050) and the yen (112.80), while the Australian dollar is consolidating at 0.7400.
The yuan has resumed its sell-off and was recently quoted at 6.7454, the weakest it has been since July last year and is down some 7.5% from the highs seen in March this year. The other emerging market currencies we follow are either extending losses (ringgit), consolidating in low ground (real and rupiah) or are starting to give back recent gains (peso and rand).
On the economic agenda, Japan’s trade balance returned to a surplus after two months of being in a deficit. Data out later includes the UK’s retail sales and US releases including the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July, initial jobless claims, leading indicators and natural gas storage.
The base metals attempted to rebound on Wednesday, but it was a dead cat bounce as this morning the metals are in negative territory and copper has extended its lows to levels last seen in July last year. Aluminium and lead prices are also extending lower, while the others are for now still above recent lows. The trends on the chart are firmly to the downside and the main driver seems to be the US trade war, with the firmer dollar not helping matters.
Gold prices are also extending on the downside and are the lowest since last July. The same is true for silver and palladium prices, which are extending recent lows, while platinum prices are the lowest since 2008.
With the base metals and industrial precious metals all falling and gold prices also declining, this is a clear sign of deleveraging on the back of concerns that trade wars will impact manufacturing and industrial production. We saw some bargain hunting on Wednesday, but selling has dominated into the rebound, but the fact there was buying suggests some traders are beginning to think the metals are starting to look oversold.
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среда, 18 июля 2018 г.
вторник, 17 июля 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 17/07: Metals prices begin to perk up after mixed start in Asia
Gold and silver prices were both up by 0.1% this morning, while platinum and palladium prices were up by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Gold and silver prices were little changed on Monday, platinum prices closed down by 0.6% and palladium prices dropped by 2%.
Gold prices are only just managing to stay above water having retested support on July 13, with prices breaching the early July support at $1,237.95 per oz to establish a fresh low at $1,236.85 per oz, but that was still just above the December low at $1,236.55 per oz. Given so much uncertainty over US trade policy and the possible contagion from that, it is surprising gold is not more sought after as a haven asset. Silver and the platinum group metals are following gold’s lead and all are looking vulnerable, even palladium, which has the strongest fundamentals of them all.
With the yen and gold in retreat, it does seem as though the main haven asset is the US treasury market – at these low gold prices, gold could look a more attractive haven asset again, especially if the China/US trade war prompts China to reduce its buying, or even sell, US treasuries.
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mixed during morning trading on Tuesday July 17, with aluminium and lead prices down 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, while the rest of the metals were up between 0.4% for nickel and tin and 0.6% for copper. The three-month copper price recently was quoted at $6,228 per tonne.
For now, copper, aluminium and tin prices are consolidating off their recent lows, while the rest are at or near their lows and are still peering lower.
Volume has been average with 6,739 lots traded across the complex as at 6.47am London time.
This follows a generally weak performance on Monday, when apart from aluminium that closed up by 1.3%, the rest of the complex closed down by an average of 2.1% – led by a 4.2% fall in zinc.
In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were split, with copper and aluminium prices up by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, with the most-actively traded September copper contract recently quoted at 49,140 yuan ($7,345) per tonne, while the rest were weaker. Zinc led on the downside with a 2.4% drop, followed by a 2% fall in lead, a 1.6% decline in nickel and a 0.8% drop in tin.
In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was off by 0.1% at 464 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile on the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was down by 1%, the December gold was off by 0.4% and the December silver was down by 0.3%.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 0.2% at 48,660-48,860 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was stronger at 7.90 after 7.89 on Monday.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were down by 0.15% at $71.69 per barrel this morning, this after another heavy down day on Monday, led by hopes Libya’s oil ports will reopen. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was firmer at 2.8641%, as were the German 10-year bund yield at 0.3050%.
Asian equity markets were broadly down on Tuesday: Nikkei (+0.61%), Hang Seng (-1.32%), CSI 300 (-1.45%), the Kospi (-0.16%) and the ASX200 (-0.61%). This follows a mixed performance in western markets on Monday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.18% at 25,064.36, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.16% at 3,449.08.
The dollar index was weaker at 94.39, with last week’s rally stalling – suggesting the double high in the second half of June at 95.54 still dominates. This has provided some lift for the euro (1.1731), sterling (1.3252) and the Australian dollar (0.7431), while it has halted the latest sell-off in the yen (112.36).
The yuan is holding in low ground at 6.6809 – the recent low being 6.7167. For now, the other emerging market currencies we follow are diverging with the peso and rand strengthening, while the real, the rupiah and ringgit are holding in low ground.
On the economic agenda, we have UK employment data and US releases that include industrial production, capacity utilization, the National Association of Home Builders index and Treasury International Capital long-term purchases. In addition, Bank of England governor Mark Carney and US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell are speaking.
The metals remain in a falling knife configuration with the summer lull, uncertainty over how extended the trade wars with the US will be and slower economic growth all weighing on sentiment. With the dollar’s latest rise reversing, a weaker dollar may encourage some bargain hunting, but key would then be whether there is follow-through buying – given prices have fallen 17% since the June high some buyers may be tempted. In this environment, however, traders are likely to stay on the sidelines for as long as they can, but it may be they are destocking and buying hand-to-mouth, which is likely to be followed at some time by restocking.
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понедельник, 16 июля 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 13/07: Metals struggle to find support
Base metals markets remain jittery following continued rhetoric from US President Donald Trump over trade. Three-month prices on the London Metal Exchange were down by an average of 0.4% as at 7.32am London time on Friday July 13, with copper prices off by 0.1% at $6,210 per tonne.
This follows a general day of consolidation and recovery on Thursday when the complex closed with gains averaging 0.8%.
From the June highs to the recent lows, the base metals have fallen by an average of 15.6%, ranged between a 22.3% decline in zinc prices and a 9.8% drop in tin prices. Copper prices fell by 17.2%.
The precious metals prices were little changed this morning while they consolidate after a 0.9% rebound on Thursday – spot gold prices were recently quoted at $1,245.79 per oz. From the June highs, precious metals prices have fallen by an average of 9.2%, ranged between 5.5% for gold prices and 12.7% for platinum prices.
In China, the base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed, with copper, nickel and tin prices up by 0.5%, 0.6% and 1.2%, respectively, while lead, zinc and aluminium prices were down by 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.2% respectively. The most-actively traded September copper contract was recently quoted at 48,710 yuan ($7,295) per tonne.
In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by 0.1% at 464 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile on the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was up by 0.6%, the December gold was down by 0.2% and the December silver was up by 0.1%.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 0.3% at 48,500-48,650 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 7.85.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were down by 0.59% at $74.00 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries, recently quoted at 2.8535%, has started to firm, while the German 10-year bund yield continues to weaken at 0.2930%.
While the metals were still nervous, Asian equity markets were firmer on Friday: Nikkei (+1.85%), Hang Seng (+0.28%), CSI 300 (+0.37%), the Kospi (1.13%) and the ASX200 (unchanged). This follows a stronger performance in western markets on Thursday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.91% at 24,924.89, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.68% at 3,445.49.
The dollar index, at 95.02, was climbing again – the recent high being the double high in the second half of June at 95.54. As the dollar rebounds, most of the major currencies are retreating: euro (1.1640), sterling (1.3150) and yen (112.67), while the Australian dollar (0.7399) is consolidating.
The yuan is holding in low ground at 6.6715, the recent low being 6.7167. For now, the other emerging market currencies we follow are holding in low ground too, although the Mexican peso is consolidating well up from recent lows.
Economic data already out this morning shows China’s exports rose 11.3% and imports increased 14.1%, both figures were less than expected, which suggests slower global economic activity. Japan’s revised industrial production remained unchanged with a 0.2% decline and Germany’s wholesale price index was up 0.5%, after a 0.8% rise previously.
Data out later includes US import prices, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, a US Federal monetary policy report and UK Monetary Policy Committee member Sir Jon Cunliffe is speaking.
While the trade wars pan out, there is unlikely to be much confidence in the metals markets but now that prices have fallen significantly, underlying global growth may well support sideways prices until the fundamentals start to change.
On the bearish side, a fall-off in trade may well dampen demand, while on the bullish side, the overall lower levels of capital expenditure by producers over the past five years are likely to lead to supply tightness in many of the metals.
The precious metals prices remain under pressure, no doubt as the dollar has started to climb again. Key support for spot gold lies around $1,236 per oz. we wait to see whether these lower gold prices now make gold more interesting as a haven asset in these troubled times.
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воскресенье, 15 июля 2018 г.
суббота, 14 июля 2018 г.
пятница, 13 июля 2018 г.
четверг, 12 июля 2018 г.
среда, 11 июля 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 11/07: Escalation in US-China trade war sends metals prices crashing
An escalation in the United States’ trade war with China, with another $200 billion of Chinese goods now potentially facing tariffs, has rattled base metals prices during early trading on Wednesday July 11.
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were down across the board by an average of 2.8%, led by a 4.1% decline in zinc. Three-month copper was down by 3.5% at $6,124 per tonne.
Volume has been extremely high with 32,107 lots traded as at 7.49am London time.
The precious metals prices were mixed with gold and silver off by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while platinum was up by 0.1% and palladium was up by 0.5%. The fact that the precious metals are not suffering to the same extent as the base metals suggests some haven interest is being seen.
In China, the base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were down across the board by an average of 3%, with most actively traded zinc August contract off by 6%, while August copper was down by 3.8% at 47,920 yuan ($7,232) per tonne.
In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by 0.2% at 460 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile on the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was up by 0.2%, December gold was up by 0.1% and the December silver was down by 0.4%.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 3.3% at 47,830-48,160 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 7.82.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were down by 0.91% at $78.12 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries, recently quoted at 2.8352%, continued to weaken, while the German 10-year bund yield at 0.3000% is little changed.
Unsurprisingly, the increased trade tensions have led to weakness in Asian equity markets: Nikkei (-1.19%), Hang Seng (-1.49%), CSI 300 (-1.79%), the Kospi (0.59%) and the ASX200 (-0.68%). This follows a stronger performance in western markets on Tuesday, where in the US the Dow Jones closed up by 0.58% at 24,919.66, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.37% at 3,473.31.
The dollar index at 94.20 was slightly firmer, but overall seems to be consolidating after its recent pullback. The euro (1.1731) and sterling (1.3272) were consolidating, while the yen (110.97) and the Australian dollar (0.74110) were weaker.
The yuan having firmed in recent days has dropped again and was recently quoted at 6.6610. For now, the other emerging market currencies we follow are not showing much further stress.
Economic data already out this morning shows Japan’s core machinery orders fell 3.7%, but this is an erratic data series. Japan’s producer price index (PPI) climbed 2.8% and tertiary industry activity was up 0.1%.
Data out later includes a UK gross domestic product (GDP) estimate, along with US data that includes PPI, wholesale inventories and crude oil inventories. There are also various central bankers speaking including European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, Bank of England Mark Carney and US Federal Open Market Committee Members Raphael Bostic and John Williams.
The rout in the base metals continues, but this morning’s weaker price levels are starting to attract some buying. For now the market is nervous and flighty, with the path of least resistance to the downside. The question is, how much damage have the markets now discounted?
The precious metals are consolidating after the April to early-July sell-off. The fact gold prices are not suffering the same percentage losses that the base metals are suggests these lower gold prices now make gold more interesting as a haven asset in these troubled times.
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METALS MORNING VIEW 09/07: Metals prices rebound after risk-on emerges in markets
Some strength emerged in the three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange on the morning of Monday July 9, with all of the metals posting gains that averaged 1% as at 7.06am London time.
Volume has been above average with 10,063 lots traded.
This follows a mixed performance on Friday, when nickel, lead, tin and copper prices dropped, while aluminium and zinc prices rallied. A large underlying tail was, however, established on copper and other ‘doji’ shaped candlesticks formed on many of the other metals’ charts, suggesting possible turnarounds in sentiment.
The precious metals prices were up by an average of 0.9% this morning, with spot gold prices up by 0.5% at $1,260.19 per oz. This follows weakness in spot gold and silver prices on Friday, while the platinum group metals closed higher.
In China, the base metals were up across the board with gains averaging 0.9%, led by a 1.7% rebound in the most-traded August zinc price, while August copper prices were up by 1.5% at 50,000 yuan ($7,526) per tonne.
In China, the base metals were broadly up with gains averaging 0.9%, led by a 1.7% rebound in the most-traded August zinc price, while August copper prices were up by 1.5% at 50,000 yuan ($7,526) per tonne.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 1.2% at 49,450-49,650 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 7.78.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were up by 0.65% at $77.60 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries, recently quoted at 2.8381%, continued to weaken, as did the German 10-year bund yield at 0.3000%.
Asian equity markets were firmer on Monday: Nikkei (+1.21%), Hang Seng (+1.65%), CSI 300 (+2.40%), the Kospi (+0.69%) and the ASX200 (+0.22%). This follows a stronger performance in western markets on Friday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.41% at 24,456.48, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.22% at 3,448.49.
The dollar index at 93.82 is continuing to weaken after establishing a double high at 95.54 (June 21 and 28). The pullback in the dollar and in US treasury yields no doubt helping to underpin the rebound in gold prices. Most of the major currencies are also seeing some strength emerge while the dollar retreats: euro (1.1772), sterling (1.3318) and the Australian dollar (0.7468), while the yen is consolidating (110.44).
The yuan is also firmer at 6.6205, as are the emerging market currencies we follow, which combined with the firmer metals and equity prices, suggests risk-on.
Economic data already out this morning shows Japan’s bank lending rose by 2.2%, having previously been up by 2%, the economy watchers sentiment climbed to 48.1 from 47.1 and the current account at 1.85 trillion yen, was below the previous level of 1.89 trillion yen. Germany’s trade balance, at €20.3 billion ($23.8 billion), was up from €19 billion previously. Data out later includes the European Union’s Sentix investor confidence and US consumer credit. There are also speeches from UK Monetary Policy Committee member Ben Broadbent and European Central Bank president Mario Draghi.
The stronger tone in base metals’ prices this morning bodes well after the weakness seen in recent weeks. There are also various chart formations that support the view that the recent bout of price weakness may have run its course. Given rises in equities and a weaker dollar, the risk-on developments also look broad based. Key now will be to see how much follow-through buying/bargain hunting there is.
The precious metals are seeing some follow through strength after their recent weakness – the combination of weaker US treasury yields and the weaker dollar, are reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
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METALS MORNING VIEW 06/07: No pause in downdraft hitting metals prices
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mixed on the morning of Friday July 6, with nickel (-0.8%), zinc (+1.1%) and aluminium (+0.3%) the main movers, while copper at $6,326 per tonne and tin at $19,455 per tonne were little changed. That said, copper did spike down to a low of $6,221.50 per tonne at around 4am London time.
Volume has been high with 16,267 lots traded as at 7:28am London time.
This follows a similarly mixed performance on Thursday that saw copper, aluminium, tin and zinc prices fall by between 0.6% and 1.1%, while lead and nickel prices rallied by 1.3% and 0.4% respectively.
Gold, silver and palladium prices were little changed, with spot gold prices at $1,256.40 per oz, while platinum prices were rebounding with a 0.5% gain to $843.50 per oz.
In China, copper and aluminium prices were the main movers on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with the most-traded August contract for copper down by 0.7% at 49,340 yuan ($7,432) per tonne and the most-traded August contract for aluminium up 0.6% by at 14,105 yuan per tonne. The rest of the complex was little changed.
In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 0.9% at 459.50 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile on the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract and the December gold and silver contracts were all up by 0.1%.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 1.5% at 48,560-49,320 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 7.80.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were off by 0.45% at $77.19 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries, recently quoted at 2.8418%, continued to weaken, as did the German 10-year bund yield at 0.3015%.
Asian equity markets were firmer on Friday: Nikkei (+1.12%), Hang Seng (+0.23%), CSI 300 (+0.68%), the Kospi (+0.68%) and the ASX200 (+0.91%). This follows a stronger performance in western markets on Thursday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.75% at 24,356.74, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.85% at 3,440.92.
The dollar index at 94.28 is continuing to weaken after establishing a double high at 95.54 (June 21 and 28). The euro is firmer and is getting some lift off low ground at 1.1711, as is the Australian dollar (0.7405), while sterling (1.3232) and the yen (110.56) are consolidating.
The continuing tensions over trade with the US has weakened the yuan in the past few weeks, but in recent days it has started to consolidate lower off the lows – it was recently quoted at 6.6519 after a low of 6.7167 on July 3. With tariffs on $34 billion of trade now in position, we need to see what China’s response is. Most of the emerging currencies we follow are also consolidating after recent weakness.
Economic data already out this morning shows Japan’s household spending drop 3.9%, after a previous drop of 1.3%, but average cash earnings climbed 2.1% after a 0.6% rise previously and leading indicators edged up to 106.9% from 106.2%. Data out later includes German industrial production, French trade balance, UK house prices and Italian retail sales. US data includes the employment report, trade balance and natural gas storage.
There seems no letup in the weakness across most the base metals and in this ‘falling knife’ environment we would wait for a buying opportunity. Markets are likely to remain nervous waiting to see how countries retaliate against the US tariffs. Given the extent of the price corrections, there may well be considerable pent-up demand to follow.
The precious metals have been hit hard on the downside but they appear to have run into bargain hunting. The fact the dollar’s climb has halted for now is no doubt giving them some support. Given prices have corrected as much as they have, and US treasury yields have fallen, the lower prices might make gold look more attractive the next time a haven is required.
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PRICING NOTICE: Proposal to discontinue gold premium assessments
FastMarkets proposes to discontinue its gold premium assessments.
Currently, FastMarkets publishes gold premium assessments for three locations – Shanghai, Mumbai and Istanbul – on a monthly basis.
The assessments are published on the first Tuesday of every month.
The proposal to discontinue these prices stems from internal analysis that deems they no longer serve the market. FastMarkets is seeking feedback on the proposed discontinuation of these prices.
The consultation period for the discontinuation of these three gold premium assessments will end one month from the date of this pricing notice, on Monday August 6, with changes taking place from August 7, when the last gold premium assessments will be published.
To provide feedback on this proposal or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to this assessment, please contact Ewa Manthey by email at: pricing@metalbulletin.com. Please add the subject heading FAO: Ewa Manthey, re: gold premium assessments.
To see all Metal Bulletin’s pricing methodology and specification documents go to https://www.metalbulletin.com/prices/pricing-methodology.html
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METALS MORNING VIEW 05/07: Sell-off continues, but tighter spreads suggest short-covering
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange broadly continued their recent run of weakness on the morning of Thursday July 5. Nickel prices were unchanged, while the rest of the complex was down by between 0.3% for copper ($6,382 per tonne) and 0.7% for aluminium ($2,089 per tonne).
Volume has been above average with 8,855 lots traded as at 7:17am London time.
This follows a generally weak performance on Wednesday, when the complex closed down by an average of 1.2%, with only aluminium ending the day in positive territory.
In precious metals this morning, gold and silver spot prices were down by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, with gold at $1,254.58 per oz, while palladium was little changed and platinum was up by 0.1% at $840.50 per oz – the recent low being $797 per oz and the lowest since December 2008.
The precious metals managed to find some buying on Wednesday, with the complex closing up by an average of 0.4%.
In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were down across the board by an average of 2.4%, led by a 4.5% drop in the most-traded August zinc contract. The most-traded August copper contract was down by 2.6% at 49,460 yuan ($7,457) per tonne.
In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by 1.3% at 456.50 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile on the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was down by 0.4%, the December gold contract was unchanged and the December silver contract was down by 0.1%.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 1.9% at 49,530-49,880 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 7.75.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were off by 0.48% at $77.77 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries continued to weaken – it was recently quoted at 2.8461%, while the German 10-year bund yield was firmer at 0.3200%.
Asian equity markets were for the most part weaker on Thursday: Nikkei (-0.78%), Hang Seng (-0.97%), CSI 300 (-0.56%), the Kospi (-0.35%), while the ASX200 closed up by 0.52%. This follows a firmer performance in European markets on Wednesday, where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.17% at 3,412.03.
The dollar index at 94.28 is weakening after establishing a double high at 95.54 (June 21 and 28). The euro is firmer and is getting some lift off low ground at 1.1704, as is sterling at 1.3246, while the yen and the Australian dollar are consolidating at 110.58 and 0.7383 respectively.
The continuing tensions over trade with the United States has weakened the yuan in the past few weeks, but in recent days it has started to consolidate lower off the lows – it was recently quoted at 6.6313 after a low of 6.7167 on July 3. Most of the emerging currencies we follow are also consolidating after recent weakness, the exception being the peso which continues to rebound.
Economic data already out this morning shows Germany’s factory orders rising 2.6% in May, after a 1.6% fall previously. Data out later includes EU retail purchasing managers’ index (PMI), UK housing equity withdrawals as well as US releases that include Challenger job cuts, ADP non-farm employment change, initial jobless claims, final services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, crude oil inventories and the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting.
In addition, Bank of England governor Mark Carney and German Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann are speaking. One old piece of data worth noting is that US total vehicle sales climbed to 17.5 million units in June, up from 16.9 in May – this data was released on Tuesday.
The washout in base metals prices continues – it was particularly strong on Wednesday but that was probably a result of thinner trading with the US on holiday. With the LME nearby spreads tighter and most backwardated it does look as though the sell-off in prices is attracting short-covering and nearby buying interest. In this ‘falling knife’ environment we would wait for a buying opportunity, but the tightening spreads may well suggest the sell-off is close to running its course.
Our medium-term view is not bearish; we still feel this year’s weakness is the market adjusting to the strength seen in 2016 and 2017, but further tightness in supply lies ahead. Needless to say the US’ stance on trade is undermining confidence and until those tensions die down, buyers may feel in no need to restock.
The precious metals have been hit hard on the downside and the fact they have not featured as a haven bid during the US trade negotiations suggests they are out of favor with investors now that other havens are paying a higher yield. Platinum prices are looking particularly weak with prices $413 per oz lower than those of gold.
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вторник, 10 июля 2018 г.
понедельник, 9 июля 2018 г.
воскресенье, 8 июля 2018 г.
пятница, 6 июля 2018 г.
четверг, 5 июля 2018 г.
среда, 4 июля 2018 г.
вторник, 3 июля 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 03/07: Some base metals prices attempting a rebound, but continue to look fragile
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were split into two camps on the morning of Tuesday July 3, with aluminium and tin prices both off by 0.3%, while the rest of the complex was up by between 0.1% and 0.6%. Zinc led the rebound, while copper was the laggard at $6,578 per tonne.
Volume has been above average with 8,372 lots traded as at 7:13am London time.
Precious metals were for the most part weaker this morning, led by a 1.4% drop in platinum prices to $804.70 per oz, while spot gold prices were off by 0.2% at $1,239.85 per oz.
In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were also mixed. The September nickel contract led on the downside with a 0.9% drop, the August lead and aluminium contracts were off by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while the August copper contract was up by 0.3% at 51,470 yuan ($7,731) per tonne, the September tin contract was up by 0.2% and the August zinc contract was up by 0.1%.
In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was unchanged at 465 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile on the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was down by 1.1%, the December gold contract was up by 0.1% and the December silver contract was down by 0.3%.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 0.3% at 51,020-51,120 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 7.83.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were up by 0.51% at $77.83 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was at 2.8693% and the German 10-year bund yield was at 0.3135%.
Asian equity markets were mixed on Tuesday: Nikkei (-0.12%), Hang Seng (-1.82%), CSI 300 (-0.09%), the Kospi (+0.07%) and the ASX200 (+0.52%). This follows a similarly mixed performance in western markets on Monday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.15% at 24,307.18, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.69% at 3,372.21.
The dollar index at 94.81 is consolidating just off a double high at 95.54 (June 21 and 28), the euro is consolidating in low ground at 1.1642, as is sterling at 1.3145, while the yen is weakening (111.05) and the Australian dollar (0.7373) is rebounding from low ground.
The recent tensions over trade with the United States has sent the yuan lower – it was recently quoted at 6.6963 and most of the emerging currencies we follow are trending lower too, the exception being the peso which has rebounded in recent weeks.
Today’s economic agenda has data on Japan’s monetary base, the French government budget balance, Spanish unemployment change, UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI), UK Financial Policy Committee minutes, EU producer price index (PPI) and retail sales, as well as US data that includes factory orders, total vehicle sales and economic optimism.
The base metals are looking quite diverse this morning with aluminium and tin still looking weak, while the rest are attempting a rebound, which in the case of copper is after a 17-day sell-off that has seen prices fall to $6,519 per tonne from the multi-year high of $7,348 per tonne. Whether the rebound has legs remains to be seen. The dominant trends are to the downside for all the base metals with the exception of nickel.
Our medium-term view is not bearish; we still feel this year’s weakness is the market adjusting to the strength seen in 2016 and 2017, but further tightness in supply lies ahead. Needless to say the US’ stance on trade is undermining confidence and until those tensions die down, buyers may feel in no need to restock.
The precious metals have been hit hard on the downside and the fact they have not featured as a haven bid during the US trade negotiations suggests they are out of favor with investors now that other havens are paying a higher yield. Platinum prices are looking particularly weak with the recent low at $797 per oz, the lowest they have been since December 2008.
The post METALS MORNING VIEW 03/07: Some base metals prices attempting a rebound, but continue to look fragile appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
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понедельник, 2 июля 2018 г.
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