пятница, 29 июня 2018 г.

If Gold Breaks This Trend, Watch Your Position



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Goldilocks Amid Many Bears On Trade-War Escalation



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The Debt Threat And Gold



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GLD Put Premiums Spike After Death Cross



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среда, 27 июня 2018 г.

The Money Of Metals; More Gold Beyond Repo



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USD Outlook And What It Means For Gold



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Gold: Next Fibo Supports (June 27)



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LNG Consumption Rises In Several Markets As Costs Fall



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вторник, 26 июня 2018 г.

A Precious Metal Golden Moon



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Gold Nears Bearish Target (June 26)



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The Next 30 Years For Gold



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U.S. Gold Exports To London Surge



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Global Crude Steel Production In May Up 6.6% Year Over Year



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LME Copper Price Falls And Dollar Rises As Labor Negotiations In Chile Continue



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понедельник, 25 июня 2018 г.

Last Week In Precious Metals



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Gold Still On Valid Support (June 25)



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Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Very Bearish As Price Collapses Below $1282 uzd/oz - 25.6.18



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Gold Standard Ventures Adds Value While Gold Falters



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Aluminum Tariffs Results Are A Mixed Bag For U.S. So Far



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воскресенье, 24 июня 2018 г.

Gold Outlook For The Week Of June 24th, 2018



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Gold AGAIN Boxed; Silver's Hard Knocks



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With Sentiment In The Gutter, Will Gold Stage A Rally?



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Contrarians See Opportunity In Negative Sentiment



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Copper Speculators Sharply Dropped Bullish Bets After 2 Strong Weeks



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Silver Speculators Cut Back On Bullish Net Positions For 1st Time In 7 Weeks



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Gold Speculators Cut Back On Their Bullish Bets Again This Week



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WTI Crude Oil Speculators Continued To Reduce Their Bullish Bets This Week



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четверг, 21 июня 2018 г.

Palladium (PA_F) Buying Opportunity Ahead?



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Gold Crush



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Gold Continues Its Free Fall



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Global Economies Eye OPEC Amid Growing Trade War Concerns



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Gold Breaking Weak Support (June 21)



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DOC Makes Affirmative Ruling In Chinese Aluminum Sheet AD Probe



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среда, 20 июня 2018 г.

Gold: On Crucial Trend Line (June 20)



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Monetary Metals Finances GoldSilver.com At 4%



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Gold: Will Goyal Make It Royal?



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Copper Has Had A Good Run, But Where Does It Go From Here?



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вторник, 19 июня 2018 г.

Will OPEC Jolt Energy And Metals?



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METALS MORNING VIEW 19/06: Metals prices under pressure after more tariffs prompt risk-off trade

Further threats of US tariffs against China has spooked the markets and three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were down across the board on the morning of Tuesday June 19, with the complex down by an average of 0.5%.

This adds to the weakness seen in the second half of last week.

Copper led the decline with a 1.2% fall to $6,891 per tonne, followed by a 0.7% drop in aluminium ($2,212 per tonne) and a 0.6% decline in tin ($20,475 per tonne). The others are down between 0.1% and 0.4%.

Volume has been high with 15,234 lots traded as at 6.46am London time. High volume and price weakness does not bode well.

In precious metals this morning, spot gold prices were up by 0.3% at $1,282.46 per oz, while the more industrial precious metals are unchanged in the case of platinum, or weaker in the case of silver (-0.2%) and palladium (-0.3%). On balance the precious metals have been weak in recent days, especially silver that has dropped to $16.45 per oz this morning from $17.32 per oz on June 14.

In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were down across the board, with prices down by an average of 1.5%. Zinc was off the most with the most-traded August contract down by 2.4%, while August copper was down by 2.4% at 52,390 yuan ($8,187) per tonne.

In other metals in China, the most-traded September iron ore contract price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by a hefty 5.2% to 447.50 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile on the SHFE, the most-traded October steel rebar contract price fell by 2.6%, while the December gold and silver contract prices were down by 0.9% and 3.1% respectively.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 1.5% at 52,100-52,480 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was higher at 7.59.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were off by 1.07% at $74.63 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries has weakened to 2.8730%, as has the German 10-year bund yield to 0.3670%. Government debt, therefore, up as demand for haven assets rises on the back of US President Donald Trump’s latest rhetoric on tariffs.

The rhetoric has also hit most equity markets in Asia today: Nikkei (-1.55%), Hang Seng (-2.36%), CSI 300 (-2.57%) and the Kospi (-1.67%), while the ASX200 (+0.1%) is marginally higher. This follows weakness in western markets on Monday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 0.41% at 24,987.47, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 1.09% at 3,466.65.

The dollar index surged on June 14 and set a high of 95.14 on June 15, but it has since consolidated and was recently trading at 94.70. The euro (1.1614) and sterling (1.3250) are also consolidating having been weaker last Thursday, the Australian dollar has fallen to 0.7378 and is the weakest it has been since June last year, while the yen is picking up haven interest and has climbed to 109.59.

Not surprisingly, the yuan is weak at 6.4544 – the weakest it has been since mid-January. The rand is weak at 13.8772, while the rest of the emerging market currencies we follow are weak, but most are not moving too much today given the latest tariff salvo from Trump.

Economic data out today includes the European Union’s current account as well as building permits and housing starts from the US. In addition, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi is speaking at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.

The economic and political environments are not bullish for the industrial metals and as such prices are capped on the upside, with any supply-led rallies attracting selling, as has been seen in copper and lead recently. Prices are now testing the downside once again and given increased trade tensions that are affecting most markets, there could be more room on the downside.

Ironically, we think Trump is being as aggressive as he is on trade because he feels this is the first time in years that the US economy and the global economy are strong enough to take this trade adjustment – as he said in recent weeks China was “very spoilt on trade”. Key now will be whether the markets think the global economy is strong enough and/or whether trade agreements follow.

With treasury yields down and the yen stronger, it appears demand for haven assets is up, so we wait to see if that flows into gold – there is little sign of this so far, but with gold prices trading at levels last seen in December, it may start to look like a relatively “cheap” haven asset.

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 19/06: Metals prices under pressure after more tariffs prompt risk-off trade appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Risk Off Moves Supported By Tit-For-Tat Trade Dispute



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Gold: Supported On The Daily (June 19)



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What Just Happened? Gold And Silver Drive-By Shooting Friday



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This Past Week In Precious Metals: Prices Poised To Rise In Coming Weeks



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понедельник, 18 июня 2018 г.

Gold And Gold Stocks Fail At 200-Day Moving Averages



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Gold Looks To Fall Further If Technical Resistance Holds At $1306 USD/Oz



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XAU/USD Forecast: Testing The Critical Support. Shall The Bulls Leave The Game?



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Are China’s Surging Aluminum Exports A Harbinger Of Future Export Levels?



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Gold Outlook For The Week Of June 17th, 2018



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воскресенье, 17 июня 2018 г.

Areas Of The World More Vulnerable To Collapse



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Gold And Silver Rebuffed Again



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Gold Bullish On Fed Hike 3



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Does Powell Have Bigger Guts Than Draghi?



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Platinum To Shine Imminently



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Gold Speculators Increased Their Bullish Net Positions For 2nd Time In 3 Weeks



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Silver Speculators Sharply Raised Bullish Bets, Gains For 6th Week



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Copper Speculators Sharply Advanced Their Bullish Bets This Week



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Silver Is Leading The Way



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Was Gold Actually “Dumped” Friday?



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четверг, 14 июня 2018 г.

Will Italy Sink The EU And Boost Gold?



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Silver/Gold Ratio Working On 7-Year Breakout!



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METALS MORNING VIEW 14/06: Disappointing Chinese data weighs on base metals prices

Disappointing Chinese economic data suggests there is little to be bullish about and therefore it is unsurprising that the three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were down across the board by an average of 0.7% on the morning of Thursday June 14.

Nickel led on the downside with a 1.9% drop to $15,355 per tonne, while the rest were down between 0.4% and 0.5%, with copper down by 0.5% at $7,203 per tonne.

Volume has been average with 5,791 lots traded as at 07.19am London time.

This follows a day of general strength on Wednesday when the complex closed up by an average of 0.4%, with nickel prices rising by 2.6%.

Precious metals were firmer today with gold prices up by 0.1% at $1,300.96 per oz, silver prices were little changed, while the platinum group metals were up by 0.2%.

In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were for the most part weaker – the exception being nickel where the most-traded September contract price was up by 0.9%. The rest were down between 0.3% for August copper and zinc and 1.3% for September tin. The August copper contract was recently quoted at 53,550 yuan ($8,362) per tonne.

In other metals in China, the most-traded September iron ore contract price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 0.6% higher to 472.50 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile on the SHFE, the most-traded October steel rebar contract price rose by 0.2%, while the December silver and gold contract prices were up by 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 0.3% at 53,300-53,460 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 7.42.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were off by 0.03% at $76.49 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries has firmed slightly to 2.9588%, as has the German 10-year bund yield to 0.4900%.

Equity markets in Asia were weaker on Thursday: Nikkei (-0.99%), Hang Seng (-1.01%), CSI 300 (-0.22%), ASX 200 (-0.12%) and the Kospi (-1.84%). The weakness seems to be on the back of the more hawkish tone from Wednesday’s US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and economic projections. This follows a mixed performance in western markets on Wednesday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 0.47% at 25,201.20, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.11% at 3,479.56.

The dollar index has been drifting lower as it consolidates its April/May strength. The index at 93.42 is within the recent 93.21-95.03 range. Meanwhile, the euro (1.1809), sterling (1.3394) and the yen (109.97) are firmer, while the Australian dollar (0.7550) is weaker.

On the economic front, data already out in China shows weaker-than-expected data on fixed asset investments, industrial production and retail sales, while foreign direct investment climbed 1.35% having previously been up by 0.1%. Japan’s revised industrial production climbed by 0.5%, having previously been up 0.3% and Germany’s consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged at 0.5%.

Data out later includes French CPI, UK retail sales, the European Central Bank rate decision and press conference, along with US data including retail sales, initial jobless claims, import prices, business inventories and natural gas storage.

The base metals prices are diverging with copper and tin prices consolidating recent gains; zinc, lead and nickel prices are holding up well after recent strength, while aluminium prices are drifting lower. Given the poor Chinese data and the equity markets’ reaction to the likelihood of stronger monetary policy from central banks, the climate is not particularly bullish and the market may not see follow-through buying until stronger economic data is seen.

Gold prices got some lift following the FOMC rate rise, perhaps the market is getting concerted about the impact of tighter monetary policy on the broader markets and that has led to some pick-up in haven buying. Silver is looking particularly strong with prices back above $17 per oz.

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 14/06: Disappointing Chinese data weighs on base metals prices appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Weekly Analysis Of Gold: Is A Bullish Surge Imminent?



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Gold: Bearish Flag On The Hourly (June 14)



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Copper Rallies, Zinc Price Increases



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U.S. Steel Imports Down 2.5% Through First Five Months of 2018



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среда, 13 июня 2018 г.

A Global Platinum Deficit Is Expected This Year



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Top-10 Gold Producing Countries



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When Will Gold Finally Rally Again? (GLD)



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METALS MORNING VIEW 13/06: Metals prices retreat/consolidate after recent strength

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were for the most part weaker on the morning of Wednesday June 13, the exception being lead which was up by 0.2%.

The rest were weaker with copper, aluminium, nickel and zinc off between 0.4% and 0.6%, with copper at $7,176 per tonne, while tin was down by 1.2%.

Volume has been average with 10,155 lots traded as at 9.38 am London time.

This follows a day of weakness on Tuesday when the base metals complex closed down by an average of 0.4%.

Precious metals were little changed this morning, with gold prices off by 0.1% at $1,294.15 per oz. This a bout of weakness on Tuesday, which saw the complex close down by an average of 0.5%.

In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange weaker this morning, with the complex down by an average 1.1%, led by a 3.1% decline in the most-traded September tin contract price. Meanwhile, the most-traded August copper contract price was off by 0.8% at 53,530 yuan ($8,358) per tonne.
In other metals in China, the most-traded September iron ore contract price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange edged 0.4% higher to 468 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile on the SHFE, the most-traded October steel rebar contract price rose by 0.9%, while the December silver and gold contract prices were down by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 0.4% at 53,150-53,290 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 7.46.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were up by 0.08% at $75.47 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries has eased slightly to 2.9572% and the German 10-year bund yield was at 0.4770%.

Equity markets in Asia were for the most part weaker on Wednesday: Hang Seng (-0.94%), CSI 300 (-0.98%), ASX 200 (-0.51%) Kospi (-0.05%), with the only the Nikkei (+0.38%) in positive ground.

The dollar index has been edging higher while it rebounds after its recent mini pullback. The index at 93.88 is within the recent 93.21-95.03 range. Meanwhile, the euro (1.1715) and sterling (1.3347) are consolidating, while the Australian dollar (0.7567), and the yen (110.64) are weakening.

On the economic front, there is data on UK prices, including the consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), house price index (HPI), and EU data that includes employment change and industrial production. US data of note includes PPI and crude oil inventories, which are followed by the US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) rate decision, statement, economic projections and conference call.

The base metals prices are diverging with copper, nickel, lead and tin prices giving back some of the strong gains seen in recent weeks, while aluminium prices are weakening and zinc prices are consolidating. Lead and copper prices seem to have found support from supply concerns, while the rest, with the exception of aluminium, got some lift on the back of the rise in copper. A lack of follow-through buying, however, is now leading to consolidation/corrections. We remain mildly bullish, but the market may not see follow-through buying until stronger economic data is seen.

Gold and platinum prices are the weaker ones of the precious metals complex, while silver and palladium prices are giving back some of their recent gains. Gold tends to be weak ahead of an expected FOMC rate rise and then recovers after the rise, we wait to see if that remains the case today.

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 13/06: Metals prices retreat/consolidate after recent strength appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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This Week Is Hot, Will Gold Get Burned?



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The June MMI Report: Section 232 Tariffs Hit EU, Canada And Mexico



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вторник, 12 июня 2018 г.

Signs Of Inflation, Except In Gold And Silver?



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Why Harry Dent’s $400 Forecast For Gold Is Wrong



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Domestic Steel Price Momentum Continues To Grow



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Stainless Steel MMI: Stainless Surcharges, LME Nickel Prices Rise



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43-101 Is A Noose Around Novo's Neck



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понедельник, 11 июня 2018 г.

This Past Week In Precious Metals: Gold Sector Cycle Is Up



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METALS MORNING VIEW 11/06: Metals consolidate recent gains, await further developments

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were split into two camps on the morning of Monday June 11, with lead, zinc and aluminium prices moving higher, while the rest weakened.

Lead outperformed this morning with a 1% gain to $2,492 per tonne, with zinc and aluminium registering increases of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Tin led on the downside with a decline of 0.5%, while copper was off by 0.4% at $7,278 per tonne and nickel dipped by 0.1%.

Acrimonious G7 talks with the United States souring relationships with the other members have dulled sentiment in the metals, especially in copper, where prices had been buoyant on a combination of potential supply disruptions at Escondida and strong Chinese economic data that saw the country’s producer price index (PPI) rise 4.1% in May from 3.4% previously.

Trading volume has been above average with 11,245 lots traded as at 8.29am London time.

In the precious metals, gold prices continued to meander sideways either side of $1,300 per oz and were recently quoted at $1,297.87 per oz. Platinum prices were following gold’s lead, while palladium and silver prices have been following the industrial metals higher.

Base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as on the LME, were split this morning. The most-traded August copper contract price increased 2.4% to 54,130 yuan (8,452) per tonne, while the July lead and August zinc contract prices were both up by 0.2%. The September nickel contract price fell 0.8%, the September tin contract price declined by 0.5% and the August aluminium contract price dipped 0.4%.

In other metals in China, the most-traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange edged 0.6% higher to 470 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile on the SHFE, October steel rebar prices rose by 0.2%, while the December silver and gold prices were both up by 0.2%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 0.5% at 53,750-53,880 yuan per tonne.

Equity markets in Asia were mainly positive on Monday: Nikkei (+0.48%), Hang Seng (+0.56%), CSI 300 (+0.01%), Kospi (+0.76%) but the ASX 200 was down by 0.2%. This follows the firmer performance in western markets on Friday, where in the US the Dow Jones closed up by 0.30% at 25,316.53.
The dollar index has been under downside pressure since it reached a 2018 peak of 95.03 on May 29 – it was recently quoted at 93.40. Trade frictions between the US and its key trade allies continue to undermine the index. Meanwhile, the other major currencies we follow were consolidating: euro (1.1813), the Australian dollar (0.7610), sterling (1.3432) and the yen (109.98).

On the economic front, there is data on Italian industrial production, along with UK releases including manufacturing and industrial production, construction output and goods trade balance.

Most of the base metals prices have been moving higher again in recent days, albeit in a choppy fashion – the main exception has been aluminium that is stuck sideways. Key now will be whether there is follow-through buying. Last year, the second quarter was generally subdued with prices only starting to pick up in mid-June, so we may be in for a repeat performance. Economic data continues to be mixed, but there are some brighter spots as seen by the May purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data. We remain quietly bullish, but needless to say the rally in copper will be semi-dependent on the outcome of labor contract negotiations at Escondida, where the company, BHP, will respond to a counter-proposal by the workers’ union today.

Gold and platinum prices are stuck in sideways trading ranges, with even the pullback in the dollar index not providing much drive, but silver and palladium prices do seem to be benefiting from the stronger tone in the other industrial metals. We expect more of the same.

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 11/06: Metals consolidate recent gains, await further developments appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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пятница, 8 июня 2018 г.

XAU/USD: Wave Technical Forecast: 06/08/2018–06/15/2018



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Is Palladium The Next Metal To Break Out?



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The Deviant Conundrum Called Silver



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Get Out Of Crypto And Move Into Gold And Silver



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четверг, 7 июня 2018 г.

Silver-Gold Indicator Eyes Multi-Year Breakout



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METALS MORNING VIEW 07/06: Mixed start for base metals prices amid increasing trade tensions

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were split into two camps on the morning of Thursday June 7, with copper leading aluminium and nickel higher, while the rest were little changed to weaker.

The three-month LME copper price, up by 0.6% at $7,281 per tonne, continues to be supported by supply-side fears stemming from labor negotiations at Chile’s Escondida mine and the closure of Sterlite’s Tuticorin mine in India. Aluminium and nickel followed the red metal upward with gains of 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.

Meanwhile, fresh deliveries into LME warehouses in the US port of New Orleans have capped gains in the LME’s three-month zinc price, little changed at $3,183 per tonne, while lead and tin consolidated following recent gains with declines of 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. On average, the LME base metals are showing a slight gain of 0.1%.

But trading volume was light, with 5,228 lots traded as at 6.29am London time.

Haven-demand was apparent on Wednesday after the dollar index continued to sink below 93.5. Gold and silver prices rose in response, but this morning prices for both precious metals were unchanged. In the platinum group metals this morning, platinum was up 0.3% to trade at $906 per oz, while palladium dipped 0.1% to $1,017.20 per oz.

Base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were generally stronger this morning, up by an average of 0.7%. Strong gains were seen across most of the base metals, with only zinc in negative territory – down by 0.1%. As on the LME, copper outperformed its peers with a 2.4% gain to 54,260 yuan ($8,486) per tonne.

In other metals in China, the most-traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange edged 0.3% higher to 472.50 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices rose by 2.5%, silver prices increased by 0.4% and gold prices dipped by 0.2%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 2% at 53,540-53,770 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio firmed to 7.90.

Equity markets in Asia were mainly positive on Thursday: Nikkei (+0.87%), Topix (+0.64%), Hang Seng (+0.65%) and ASX (+0.53%), but the CSI 300 index was down 0.07%. A slew of positive economic data out of the United States boosted the country’s equity markets: Dow (+1.40%), S&P (0.86%) and Nasdaq (0.67%). With the political tensions in Europe receding, investors’ confidence returned, and gains were seen on Italian FTSE MIB (+0.26%) and Spanish IBEX (1.09%).

The dollar index has come under downside pressure since it reached a 2018 peak of 95.03 on May 29. Trade frictions between the US and its key trade allies continue to undermine the index. Meanwhile, the euro edged higher (1.1811) following hawkish comments from several European Central Bank speakers.

On the economic front, US data on Wednesday showed the country’s trade deficit shrank to $46.2 billion in April from $47.2 billion in March. Today’s data includes German factory orders, revised European gross domestic product (GDP), US unemployment claims and a Bank of Canada (BOC) financial systems review. In addition, BOC Governor Stephen Poloz is speaking later.

Trade issues are set to dominate the financial headlines once the G7 summit gets underway on Friday. The US has isolated itself from several key allies and is fighting political battles on a number of fronts. Mexico and the European Union have imposed retaliatory tariffs on various US products, while French President Emmanuel Macron has openly said that France will not sign a G7 Statement, stating that progress must be made on tariffs, the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris climate accord before he would be consider signing.

The base metals have largely ignored the rising trade tensions, however, and on balance the mood is rather positive as the dollar index continues to decline and robust economic data has so far provided most metals with the impetus to trade higher.

This positive mood has spread through to the precious metals complex, with gold and silver prices reacting higher. With a June interest rate hike in the US largely priced in, the dollar index may remain under downside pressure in the short term.

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 07/06: Mixed start for base metals prices amid increasing trade tensions appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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