пятница, 30 июня 2017 г.

What Happened When Gold Crashed, Monday June 26?



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Has Gold Production Peaked?



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Gold prices drift despite weaker dollar

FastMarkets

Precious metals are little changed to firmer this morning, Friday June 30, with platinum prices up 0.2% at $921.20 per oz, gold prices are little changed at $1,246.12 per oz – this comes after a generally weaker day on Thursday when prices closed down an average of 0.4%, led by a 0.9% drop in silver prices.

Base metals on the London Metal Exchange are on divergent paths this morning, with three-month copper and nickel prices firmer by 0.4%, with copper at $5,947 per tonne, aluminium and zinc prices are little changed, while lead and tin are off either side of 0.4%.

Volume has been average at 5,827 lots as of 06:09 BST.

Today’s performance comes after a bullish day on Thursday that saw average gains of 0.8%, led by a 2.7% gain in tin prices, with aluminium and copper prices closing up 0.8%. Good Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data is likely to give sentiment a boost in this already more bullish climate.

The base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are also split this morning, copper prices are up 0.3% at 47,380 yuan per tonne ($7,000 per tonne), nickel and tin prices are up slightly, while aluminium is off 0.7% and zinc and lead prices are off 0.4%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are off 0.1% at 47,100-47,250 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has eased to 7.97, suggesting LME copper prices are relatively stronger than SHFE copper prices.

September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are consolidating recent gains; prices are off 0.4% at 469 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 0.4%, while gold and silver prices are down 0.7%.

In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.8% at $47.86 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has climbed to 2.28%.

Equity markets were under pressure on Thursday as follow-through concerns about possible shifts in European Central Bank (ECB) and UK monetary policies spooked markets. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 1.8% and the Dow closed down 0.8%, although it had been down 1.2% at the low of the day. Asia has seen follow-through weakness this morning with the Nikkei off 1.5%, the ASX 200 is off 1.4%, the Hang Seng is off 0.8% and the CSI and Kospi are down 0.3%. Key now will be whether equities have another down day or they compose themselves ahead of the weekend.

The dollar index at 95.55 continues to plunge, while it does, the euro at 1.1437 is surging, sterling is strong at 1.3011, as is the Australian dollar at 0.7693 and the yen is fairly flat at 111.95.

The yuan continues to strengthen, it gapped higher again this morning and was recently quoted at 6.7669. This turn round in the yuan seems to be on the back of the weaker dollar as much as it is being boosted by the vote of confidence it received when the ECB reported it had started to hold yuan-denominated assets in its reserves. Other emerging market currencies we follow are if anything slightly weaker, but generally remain flat.

The economic agenda is very busy today – data out already shows a decline in UK GfK consumer confidence, Japan’s core CPI was mixed, its unemployment rate climbed to 3.1%, from 2.8%, industrial production fell 3.3% and housing starts declined 0.3%. On a brighter note, Chinese manufacturing PMI jumped to 51.7 from 51.2 and non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.9 from 54.5. Data out later includes German retail sales and unemployment change, French consumer spending and CPI, there is also CPI out of the EU, UK current account data, gross domestic product (GDP), index of services and revised business investment. US data includes personal income, spending and PCE prices, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations – see table below for more details.

We have been expecting base metals prices to work higher and that accelerated on Thursday. Better Chinese PMI data, if supported by better Caixin PMI data on Monday, would help justify the stronger tone. There is some feeling that this may just be end-of-quarter window dressing, but we think there is more to it than that. We have generally been quietly bullish for the metals for the medium and longer terms and in recent weeks may be we have moved into that medium term time frame. We remain mildly bullish, although initially short-covering may add some fuel to rallies. In the short term, if equities and bonds suffer more of a shake-out then that could lead to some risk-off, but it did not seem to get in the metals’ way on Thursday.

General risk-off in equities and bonds could weigh on precious metals prices if investors are looking at ways to raise margin, however, a secondary reaction could be more bullish as investors rotate out of equities and bonds and look for havens. The weaker dollar should also help gold prices. For now, prices are under pressure, we would expect gold prices to be well supported, but the likes of palladium may have further to correct.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

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четверг, 29 июня 2017 г.

87th BIS Annual Report And Gold



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Gold prices may struggle on the upside

FastMarkets

Precious metals are up across the board this morning, Thursday June 29, with gains averaging 0.4% with gold prices up 0.1% at $1,251.54 per oz, silver prices are up 0.3% and the PGMs up around 0.6%. Again this follows a generally firmer day on Wednesday when prices closed up an average of 0.2%.

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are up across the board this morning, with gains averaging 0.4%. Copper prices lead the advance with a 0.7% gain to $5,918 per tonne – the highest prices have been since April 5.

Volume has also been high with 9,404 lots traded as of 06:13 BST – firmer prices and a pick-up in volume bode well, especially when the stronger tone has carried on from Wednesday when prices closed up an average of 0.4%.

The base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are also all higher this morning, up by an average of 0.7%. Copper prices lead the way with a 1% gain to 47,300 yuan per tonne ($6,975 per tonne), aluminium prices are up 0.3%, while the rest are up around 0.7%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 1.3% at 47,120-47,320 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio remains around 7.99.

September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 3.4% at 466 yuan per tonne, this is the third day where prices have gained over 3%. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 0.8%, while gold prices are down 0.2% and silver prices are up 0.2%.

In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.2% at $47.50 per barrel and at 2.22% the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has held on to recent gains.

Equity markets on Wednesday saw the Euro Stoxx 50 close down 0.1%, while the Dow and Nasdaq composite closed up 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively, shaking off Tuesday’s jitters – they were helped by major US banks clearing the Federal Reserve’s stress tests – most with flying colours. Asia has followed the US lead, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng up 0.4%, the Kospi up 0.5%, the Hang Seng is up 0.8% and the ASX 200 is up 0.9%.

The dollar index continued its slump on Wednesday and at 95.91 is weak this morning too, this as the euro (1.1398), sterling (1.2956) and the Australian dollar (0.7652) push higher as the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England turn more hawkish and the Australian dollar benefits from a rebound in commodity prices. The yen, however, is flat 112.21 as its monetary policy is more likely to remain as it is.

The yuan broke its weaker trend on Tuesday, with the currency rising to 6.8095, it gapped higher to 6.8005 on Wednesday morning and has gapped higher again this morning, it was recently quoted at 6.7790. Reports that the ECB has started to hold yuan-denominated assets is being seen as a sign of approval for the yuan to evolve into an international currency. The peso is firmer, while most of the other emerging market currencies we follow are flat.

Japan’s retail sales grew 2%, down from 3.2% previously and an expected 2.6%, but the overall trend is positive. Later there is data on German Gfk consumer climate and consumer price index (CPI), there is also Spanish CPI and data on UK lending and M4 money supply. US data includes a final reading on gross domestic product (GDP), it is expected to show 1.2% growth in the first quarter, initial jobless claims, GDP price index and natural gas storage – see table below for more details.

We have been expecting base metals prices to work higher and that has unfolded. On Wednesday, they managed to shake off equity market jitters from Tuesday and with aluminium prices managing to rebound too, the base metals complex is looking more robust. Tighter spreads suggest short-covering while falling stocks and a weaker dollar are supportive too.

Gold prices are edging higher, no doubt buoyed by the weaker dollar, but with equities rebounding from Tuesday’s jitters and with the industrial metals looking firmer again, gold prices may struggle on the upside. That said, the fact that equities and bond markets have been jittery may well encourage some rotation out of elevated markets into safer-havens. Silver prices are following gold’s lead, while the PGMs are subdued, with palladium still looking vulnerable on the downside.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

 

The post Gold prices may struggle on the upside appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Draghi, Carney, Yellen, And Gold



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среда, 28 июня 2017 г.

Gold Continues To Recover From The Massive



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The Gold/Silver Ratio



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Gold prices edge higher, watching weakness in broader markets

FastMarkets

Precious metals are firmer across the board this morning, Wednesday June 28, with gains averaging 0.5% with gold prices up 0.3% at $1,252.14 per oz. This follows a generally stronger day on Tuesday that saw gold, silver and platinum prices close up an average of 0.5%, while palladium prices closed off 1% at $858 per oz.

Base metals are little changed on the London Metal Exchange this morning, with prices split between plus and minus 0.3%. Copper, lead and tin prices are firmer, aluminium and zinc prices are weaker and nickel prices are unchanged.

Three-month copper prices are up 0.2% at $5,856 per tonne – volume is average with 4,952 lots traded, but unusually the volume in nickel, at 1,637 lots as of 06:39 BST, is greater than that of copper that has traded 1,377 lots.

This follows a strong performance on Tuesday when the base metals complex closed up an average of 1.2%, led by a 2.3% rise in nickel prices.

The base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are also up across the board this morning, up by an average of 1.3%. Lead is the outperformer with a 2.9% gain while copper prices are up 0.5% at 46,810 yuan per tonne ($6,882 per tonne). Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.8% at 46,530-46,730 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weaker at 7.99, implying LME copper prices are rising faster than those in China.

Other industrial metals in China are stronger with September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange up 3.2% at 457.50 yuan per tonne, this is the second day where prices have gained over 3%. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 3%, while gold prices are 0.3% firmer and silver prices are up 1.1%.

In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.8% at $46.52 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has jumped to 2.21%, from 2.13% on Tuesday – bond yields are generally firmer following a bullish talk by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi yesterday.

Equity markets on Tuesday were weaker, led by tech weakness with the Nasdaq composite closing down 1.6%, the Dow closed down 0.5% at 21,310.66 and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed off 0.7%. US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen speaking about rich asset valuations combined with a setback on US president Donald Trump’s healthcare bill seem to have rattled markets. The weakness has flowed through to most of Asia with the Nikkei, Hang Seng, CSI 300 and Kospi down between 0.3-0.4%, while stronger commodity prices gave the ASX 200 a 0.7% lift. Another ransom cyber-attack may well be worrying markets too.

Draghi’s bullish EU focus lifted the euro that has shot up to 1.1377, conversely the dollar index is down at 96.24 – a fresh low for the year. The yen is weaker at 112.33, while sterling and the Australian dollar are stronger at 1.2816 and 0.7606, respectively.

The yuan broke its weaker trend on Tuesday, with the currency rising to 6.8095 and it has gapped higher to 6.8005 this morning. With the currency majors on the move, the other emerging market currencies we follow are little changed.

Today’s economic agenda has data on German import prices that fell 1%, this was worse than the 0.6% decline expected, while UK nationwide house prices climbed 1.1%. Later there is data on EU money supply and private loans, Italian CPI and US data that includes goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, pending home sales and crude oil inventories. Today also sees another flurry of central bank speakers including Draghi, Bank of England governor Mark Carney and Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda – see table below for more details.

The base metals are looking brighter across the board with even aluminium joining in with the gains on Tuesday. This morning markets are little changed so we wait to see if there is follow through buying. In normal circumstances we would expect that, but with equity and bond markets showing weakness, we need to see if there is any general risk-off move. Overall, given the emerging firmer trends, we expect prices to work higher but progress may be choppy.

Gold prices are trying to move higher and weakness in equities, bonds and the dollar may well see gold prices firm up more, especially if the cyber-attack gains momentum. Silver is following gold, platinum and palladium are consolidating and look more vulnerable.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

 

 

The post Gold prices edge higher, watching weakness in broader markets appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Elliot Wave Analysis: Zinc Reversal Happened



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вторник, 27 июня 2017 г.

1.8 Million Ounces Of Gold Traded In 1 Minute



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Gold Stabilizes After Poor Start To Week



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Gold And Silver: Respect The Bar



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Gold Recovers Very Quickly From Dubious Sale



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Addressing Keith Weiner’s Objections To “Gold’s True Fundamentals”



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Base Metals May Feel Gloomy After A Bitter Pill



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Chart Of The Day: Benefitting From Gold's Recent Fat Finger Event



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Gold: Getting Closer To Preferable Long Entry Point



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Gold And Silver Market Morning For The 26th June 2017



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The Gold And Bond Divergence



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Gold prices stabilise after spike lower on Monday

FastMarkets

Precious metals are for the most part firmer this morning, Tuesday June 27, with gold and silver prices up 0.2% – spot gold was recently at $1,245.57 per oz. This comes after a sudden sell-off yesterday morning on the back of a large sell order that hit the market when liquidity was thin. Gold closed yesterday 1.1% weaker and silver closed down 0.8%. Platinum prices are up 0.6%, having fallen 1.3% yesterday and palladium prices are little changed, having climbed 0.9% on Monday. The dips seem to have attracted dip buying.

Another quiet start to trading on the London Metal Exchange this morning, with base metals prices mixed and little changed. Copper, aluminium, lead and tin prices are down an average of 0.2%, with three-month copper prices at $5,789 per tonne, while nickel and zinc prices are up 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively.

Volume has been light with 4,485 lots traded as of 06:42 BST.

This follows a choppy day of trading on Monday that saw early gains mostly given back, while aluminium prices pushed lower but closed little changed, nickel prices closed off 0.9% and lead prices closed up 0.9%.

In Shanghai this morning, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are mixed; zinc and lead prices are up 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, copper prices are down 0.1% at 46,500 yuan per tonne ($6,797 per tonne), aluminium prices are down 0.8%, nickel prices are down 0.4% and tin prices are down 1%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.1% at 46,230-46,380 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.03.

Other industrial metals in China are stronger with September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange up 3.1% at 444.50 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 1.8%, while gold prices are down 0.7% and silver prices are down 0.8%.

In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are little changed at $45.89 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has eased to at 2.13%.

Equity markets on Monday were firmer with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.5% and the Dow closed up 0.1% at 21,409.55. Asia, however, is mixed this morning with the Nikkei up 0.4%, the Kospi up 0.2%, the Hang Seng down 0.2%, the CSI 300 down 0.3% and the ASX 200 down 0.1%.

The dollar index at 97.34 is consolidating in mid-ground of its possible base formation. The euro is consolidating in high ground at 1.1196, sterling is at 1.2733 and the yen is easing at 111.70, while the Australian dollar is strengthening at 0.7595.

The yuan continues with its weaker trend at 6.8417, giving back more of the gains seen in the second half of May, which came after its credit downgrade. The other emerging market currencies we follow are mixed, but if anything are slightly firmer, which suggests little concern.

Today’s economic agenda is heavy on central bank speakers but light on data with UK CBI realised sales, US house prices, US consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing. Speakers include European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, Bank of England governor Mark Carney, US Federal Open Market Committee members Patrick Harker and Neel Kashkari and US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen – see table below for more details.

The base metals are still split between copper, lead, zinc and nickel prices that have been able to climb of late and look well placed to continue higher, while tin prices have been choppy and are consolidating off the recent lows, but aluminium is under pressure. Light metal prices set a fresh low on Monday at $1,855 per tonne, the lowest since mid-March and the market looks toppy, but dips continue to attract enough dip buying to prevent a sell-off – but not enough to lead to follow through buying. Whether it will go it alone on the downside remains to be seen.

Gold prices are recovering from Monday’s spike lower and at $1,250 per oz prices are generally consolidating and given a fairly quiet geopolitical and US political scene, we do not see too much demand for safe havens, so we expect more of the same. Silver and platinum prices continue to follow gold’s lead, while palladium prices consolidate below recent peaks, with dip buying evident, although overhead supply seems evident too.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

The post Gold prices stabilise after spike lower on Monday appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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понедельник, 26 июня 2017 г.

Gold Price Forming A Double Top Vs US Dollar?



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Is Silver About To Reverse Its Trajectory?



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Gold's 'Fat-Finger' Mistake: Whats Next?



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Spot Gold Technicals



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Trump's Take On Steel: Here's What's It Means To Global Trade



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Gold's Red Candle Opens Way To Break Of Uptrend Line



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What Is The Gold Fundamental?



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Daily Forecast From June 26. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, US OIL



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China’s Falling Steel Exports May Be A Temporary Phenomenon



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Is Gold Heading Back To $1300 USD/oz?



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A Rally In Gold And Silver Halted A Two And A Half Week Slide



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воскресенье, 25 июня 2017 г.

Silver Seems To Be Heading Towards An Higher Trading Zone



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Is Gold Ready To Break $1,300?



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Gold Docks In Its Box



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The Past Week In Precious Metals- Consolidation Is Near



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Do Gold Mining Stock Prices Follow Cycles?



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Gold Summer Doldrums



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The Gold Forecast For June-July



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Gold Speculators Sharply Reduced Bullish Net Positions For 2nd Week



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Weekly Precious Metals Update: Trend In Gold Is Up



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Copper Speculators Decreased Bullish Net Positions



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Silver Speculators Sharply Decreased Bullish Positions Down For 2nd Week



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Gold Wakes The Bulls Up



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Macron, Brexit Talks And Gold



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пятница, 23 июня 2017 г.

Zinc Forecast, June 2017: Inventories Decline



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Gold's Long Side



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EUR/JPY Exchange Rate And Gold



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New Research From Danske Bank Markets



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Will Silver Be Impacted By Rising Fed Hawkishness?



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Gold Edges Higher As May Heads To EU Summit



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четверг, 22 июня 2017 г.

Gold Entry Point



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U.S. Data Angst And Gold



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GOLD: Making A Sharp And Strong Reversal Higher



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Gold Prices Halted Their Recent Slide



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Zinc: Beware Of Bulls Trapping Zone Ahead



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LME Aluminum Prices, Physical Delivery Premiums Easing, What’s Next?



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Gold Lifted By Oil Collapse As Noise Around Deeper OPEC Cut Intensifies



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Russia Vs. U.S.: Where’s The Gold Going?



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Watching For A Big Move In Gold



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Will Gold Be Bullish or Bearish?



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Want To See Gold Go Higher? It Needs Some Bad News



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среда, 21 июня 2017 г.

XAU/AUD Mid-Term Elliott Wave Analysis



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Gold Price Faces Trend-Line Support



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Gold ICL: 6-8 Weeks Away



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Gold, Defying The Odds, Still Stable Below $1,250



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What’s Driving Gold In 2017?



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Mild Risk Aversion Seen In Early Trade



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Palladium XPD/USD Elliott Wave Impulse



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Trump’s Section 232 Case Threatens Old Friends And New



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The Drop In Oil And Its Effect On Gold And Bitcoin



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All quiet in bullion, gold prices little changed

FastMarkets

Precious metals are little changed this morning, Wednesday June 21, gold, silver and palladium are up slightly, with gold at $1,246.10 per oz, while platinum prices are off 0.1%. This comes after a generally quiet day on Tuesday which saw gold, silver and platinum prices close 0.1% higher, while palladium prices closed up 1.2% at $870 per oz.

It has been a quiet start on the London Metal Exchange this morning, as base metals prices remain little changed with price movements ranged between down 0.3% for tin and up 0.2% for zinc – copper prices are down 0.2% at $5,657 per tonne. Volume has been light with 4,009 lots traded as of 06:22 BST.

This follows a general down day on Tuesday when prices closed off an average of 0.4%, with tin the only base metal to close in positive territory with gains of 0.4%, while the rest were down an average of 0.6%.

In Shanghai this morning, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are split with nickel, copper and tin prices down, 1.7%, 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively, with copper prices at 45,540 yuan per tonne ($6,668 per tonne) while aluminium, lead and zinc are up an average of 0.2%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.7% at 45,350-45,470 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.05.

Other industrial metals in China are weaker with September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange down 1.5% at 425.5 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are off 2.2%, while gold and silver prices are little changed.

In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are weak at $45.89 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has fallen to 2.16%.

Equities ended Tuesday on a weaker note, dragged down by weaker oil prices, with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.5% and the Dow down 0.3% at 21,467.14. In Asia this morning, markets are mixed but generally weaker; the ASX 200 is off 1.5%, the Kospi is down 0.5%, the Hang Seng is off 0.4%, Nikkei is down 0.3%, while the CSI 300 bucks the trend with a 0.2% gain.

The dollar index pushed up through recent highs of 97.78 to reach 97.87 on Tuesday, thereby suggesting a break higher. It was recently quoted at 97.75 and is looking firmer, which is likely to prove a headwind for commodity prices in general, especially gold prices. Conversely, the euro is weaker at 1.1129 as are sterling at 1.2629 and the Australian dollar at 0.7558, while the yen at 111.26 is consolidating recent weakness.

The yuan continues with its weaker trend at 6.8317, giving back some of the gains seen in the second half of May, which came after its credit downgrade. The other emerging market currencies we follow are all weaker too, no doubt reflecting a firmer dollar, which suggests a possible change in trend may now be underway.

The economic agenda is light today; data out of Japan showed all industries activity rising 2.1%, better than the 1.7% expected, while later there is data on UK public sector borrowing requirement, with US data including existing home sales and crude oil inventories. With oil prices on a back footing, the inventory data could prompt some increased volatility in oil. In addition, UK Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Haldane is speaking – see table below for more details.

The recent firmer tone in the base metals appears to have once again run out of steam suggesting a generally lacklustre market with dips being supported, while any price strength attracts selling. We expect more of the same while the market waits for more directional news flow.

Gold, silver and platinum prices are retreating but doing so in an orderly manner, while palladium prices appear to have found some support. If the dollar does push through with its firmer tone then that may well apply downward pressure on the precious metals prices, at least while there is an absence of any pick-up in geopolitical, or political tensions.

 

 

The post All quiet in bullion, gold prices little changed appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Financial Deregulation Is Bad News For Gold



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Gold: Waiting For A Test Of 1.230



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Gold Stabilizes After Week Starts With Losses



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Gold: Meets 100 Day Moving Average Resistance At 1247/48



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вторник, 20 июня 2017 г.

Metals: Global Blast-Off Trade Setup



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Blockchain: Team Gold's Newest Player?



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Gold: Holding Below The 100 Day Moving Average Resistance



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Gold Set To Stabilize Around $1,250



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Russia Warning Ignored By Commodities Markets



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Small-Cap Mining Stocks, Big-Time Opportunity



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понедельник, 19 июня 2017 г.

Gold Drops To 5-Week Low As Dudley Sends Hawkish Message



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Bullish Palladium Supporting Commodities



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APAC Commodities – Lend Me Some Sugar?



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Gold: Traveling Towards 1.230 Support Line



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Commodities Market Guide: Losing Out To The Steady Hand Of The Fed



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Gold prices drift as safe haven demand wanes

FastMarkets

Base metals on the London Metal Exchange are up across the board this morning, Monday June 19, as they have been for the past two business days, with lead, zinc and nickel managing to see follow through buying, while the others look less positive.

Prices are up by an average of 0.5%, with three-month copper prices up 0.3% at $5,688 per tonne and lead prices up 1% at $2,136 per tonne. Volume has been above average with 7,628 lots traded as of 07:10 BST.

This morning’s gains come after a generally stronger day on Friday when prices closed up an average of 0.4%, led by a 1.3% gain in tin prices, lead, zinc and nickel closed up an average of 0.4%, while copper and aluminium were little changed.

Gold prices are off 0.2% this morning at $1,251.59 per oz as the market consolidates, it closed Friday off 0.1% at $1,253.70 per oz. Silver prices are edging lower, while the other precious metals are generally consolidating.

In Shanghai this morning, tin prices are off 0.6% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the others are up between 0.4% for nickel and 1.7% for aluminium, with copper prices up 0.4% at 45,740 yuan per tonne ($6,713 per tonne). Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.1% at 45,340-45,590 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.04.

In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 1.7% at 437 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices continue to rebound, they are up 2% while gold and silver prices are little changed.

In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down 0.1% at $47.22 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has edged lower to 2.15%.

Equities ended Friday slightly higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.1% and the Dow closed up 0.5%. In Asia this morning, markets are firmer; the Nikkei is up 0.6%, the Hang Seng is up 1.3%, the ASX200 is 0.5% higher, the CSI 300 is up 0.8% and the Kospi is up 0.4%.

The dollar index at 97.15 is consolidating its recent rebound, so all eyes on whether the dollar has now put in a base. The euro is at 1.1204 is consolidating, sterling is edging higher, while the yen is weaker and the Australian dollar is firm at 0.7609.

The yuan at 6.8130 is looking weaker, most of the other emerging market currencies we follow are flat, although the Mexican peso is firm at 17.9110.

The economic agenda is light today, data out already shows UK house prices dipping 0.4%, the first decline in six months and Japan’s trade balance showed strong export growth of 14.9% in May and stronger than expected imports – both a sign of a healthy global market. Later today US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member William Dudley and German Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann are speaking.

The slide in aluminium prices appears to have halted this morning with prices rebounding off a support line that was breached on Friday and copper prices are consolidating too. The other metals look firmer with rebounds underway in lead, zinc and nickel, while tin’s strong rebound, which continued in early trading with a 1.2% gain at this morning’s high, is now consolidating. With aluminium prices possibly turning the corner and rebounding, it may be that some general strength appears in the base metals, but we wait to see how much follow through buying interest there is. For now we expect sideways trading as the markets look well supplied.

Precious metals prices are, for the most part, retreating as markets consolidate as the need for haven assets has eased. Until geopolitical, or political tensions rise again, gold prices may remain on a back footing.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

 

The post Gold prices drift as safe haven demand wanes appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Gold: Retests The 1251 Low



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воскресенье, 18 июня 2017 г.

Gold Aware Without Going Anywhere



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Metals Did Poorly, Sliding Lower With The Exception Of Pallladium



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This Past Week In Precious Metals: Trend In Gold Is Up



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Silver Speculators Cut Back On Net Bullish Positions For 1st Time



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Copper Speculators Lifted Bullish Net Positions For 2nd Week



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Gold Bullish On Fed Hike



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пятница, 16 июня 2017 г.

Gold prices weaker, safe-haven demand wanes

FastMarkets

Gold, silver and platinum prices are little changed this morning, Friday June 16, with spot gold prices off 0.1% at $1,252.98 per oz. Palladium prices are up 0.4%, suggesting their recent price correction has started to run into some dip-buying. This comes after a down day for gold, silver and platinum on Thursday, where prices closed down an average of 1.2%, while palladium prices rebounded 0.9%.

Base metals on the London Metal Exchange are up across the board this morning,  as they were yesterday morning. Prices are up by an average of 0.3%, with zinc leading the rebound with a 0.8% gain to $2,534 per tonne, nickel prices are up 0.5% and tin prices are up 0.4%, while the rest are up around 0.1% with copper at $5,681 per tonne. Volume has been average with 6,196 lots traded as of 06:34 BST.

This morning’s gains come after a generally stronger day on Thursday when prices closed up an average of 0.6%, but gains were concentrated in zinc, lead and tin prices, which closed with average gains of 1.3%, while copper and nickel prices closed up 0.1% and aluminium prices closed down 0.2%. Aluminium prices appear to have taken over from lead as the metal struggling the most to come out of its drift lower.

In Shanghai this morning, copper prices are off 0.1% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) at 45,620 yuan per tonne ($6,694 per tonne), but the rest are firmer by an average of 0.7%, led by a 1.5% increase in lead prices. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.1% at 45,550-45,650 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has firmed to 8.04.

In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 0.7% at 426 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices continue to rebound, they are up 1% while gold and silver prices are down either side of 1.4%.

In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.4% at $46.95 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has edged higher to 2.17%.

Equities ended Thursday lower with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.6%, while the Dow closed off marginally at 21,359.80. In Asia this morning, markets are generally firmer; the Nikkei is up 0.6%, the Hang Seng is up 0.3%, the ASX200 is 0.1% higher while the CSI 300 is down 0.2% and the Kospi is off 0.1%.

The dollar index at 97.54 is working higher suggesting the markets are starting to side with the US Federal Reserve’s stance rather than be overly influenced by the recent weak consumer price index out of the USA. As the dollar turns higher, the euro is retreating at 1.1142, as is the yen at 111.16, while sterling is edging higher at 1.2769 and the Australian dollar is firm at 0.7590.

The yuan at 6.8144 is weakening again and the other emerging market currencies we follow are for the most part weaker too, suggesting a general reaction to the firmer dollar and the Fed’s stance.

The economic agenda is busy today. Japan kept its monetary policy and interest rate unchanged, at minus 0.1%, while the Bank of Japan’s press conference is still to come. EU passenger car registrations climbed 7.6% in May, reversing April’s 6.6% fall – in the first five months registrations are up a healthy 5.3%. Later there is data on Italy’s trade balance, EU CPI, the Bank of England’s quarterly bulletin, with US data including building permits, housing starts, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflationary expectations and labour market conditions. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee member Robert Kaplan is speaking – see table below for more details.

Within quiet trading conditions, base metals prices are for the most part edging higher, the exceptions are aluminium that is lingering around recent lows and copper that is struggling to get any follow through buying after Thursday’s attempted rebound. We have noted of late that bouts of buying tend not to attract much follow through buying so we wait to see if today is any different, although with the dollar firmer that may be expecting too much. Conversely, we wait to see if aluminium can hold up above nearby support levels. In the absence of more bullish news flow, this current sideways to lower direction in metals prices may continue. Based on fundamental outlook we remain mildly bullish for the medium to longer term, i.e. we are not bearish per se, but are having to wait longer than expected for an upturn.

Precious metals prices are, for the most part, retreating as markets consolidate as the need for safe-havens has eased. Palladium is in a different boat; in recent days prices have corrected after the runaway rally, but the recent dip in prices does seem to be attracting some dip-buying. Until geopolitical, or political tensions rise again, gold prices may remain on a back footing.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

The post Gold prices weaker, safe-haven demand wanes appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Silver, Gold And Oil Limp Into Friday



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четверг, 15 июня 2017 г.

Gold: Fighting The Long-Term Down Trendline



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Zinc On A Slow Start To June, Opens Opportunity To Buy



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Palladium price correction underway

FastMarkets

Precious metals are little changed to firmer this morning, Thursday June 15, palladium leads the gains with a 0.6% rally to $863.30 per oz, silver prices are up 0.3% while gold and platinum are little changed at $1,263 per oz and $863 per oz, respectively. This comes after a mixed performance on Wednesday that saw palladium prices fall 2.8%, while platinum prices rallied 1.1%, gold prices fell 0.3% and silver prices closed up 0.7% higher.

Base metals on the London Metal Exchange are up across the board this morning,  with prices up by an average of 0.6%. The move has happened at a higher than average volume of 8,685 lots as of 07:03 BST.

Zinc prices lead the gains with a 1.3% rally in three-month prices to $2,516 per tonne, tin is the laggard with a 0.1% gain, while copper prices are up 0.6% at $5,704 per tonne. On Wednesday, prices were split with copper, aluminium and tin closing down an average of 0.9%, while nickel, lead and zinc prices were up 0.7%.

In Shanghai this morning, the metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are split; aluminium prices lead on the downside with prices off 1.2%, with tin prices off 0.2% and copper prices off 0.3% at 45,650 yuan ($6,717) per tonne, while lead leads on the upside with a 1.5% gain, nickel prices are up 1.1% and zinc prices are up 0.9%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.1% at 45,400-45,600 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has firmed to 8.01.

In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 1.5% at 427 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 3% while gold prices are down 0.3% and silver prices are up 0.7%.

In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.3% at $47.04 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has fallen to 2.14%, suggesting the markets are following US consumer price index (CPI) data, which came out weaker on Wednesday, rather than the US Federal Reserve’s guidance. Yesterday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% and suggested they expect another 25 basis point rise later in the year and were looking to start reducing their balance sheet later in the year.

Equities ended Wednesday mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.3%, while the Dow closed up 0.2% at 21,374.56. In Asia this morning markets are weaker, the Nikkei is down 0.3%, the Hang Seng is off 0.9%, the CSI 300 is off 0.2%, the ASX200 is off 1.2% and the Kospi is down 0.5%. As such, it looks as though the broader markets see the combination of the lower US CPI and higher interest rates as a headwind.

The dollar index spiked lower to 96.32 after the CPI data on Wednesday, but rebounded after the FOMC decision and statement – it was recently quoted at 96.92, but continues to look heavy. The euro is consolidating at 1.1218, as is sterling at 1.2749, the yen is trending lower at 109.65, while the Australian dollar is strong at 0.7610.

The yuan at 6.7938 remains firm but flat and most of the other emerging market currencies we follow are for the most part flat with a slight firmer bias, suggesting they have taken the latest rate rise in their stride and perhaps the weak CPI data has given them confidence that the Fed may turn more dovish.

The economic agenda is busy with French CPI, UK retail sales, the EU trade balance, an update on UK monetary policy as well as a host of US data including initial jobless claims, Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing indices, import prices, industrial production, capacity utilisation, NAHB house marketing index, natural gas storage and TIC long term purchases. In addition Bank of England governor Mark Carney is speaking this evening – see table below for more details.

The base metals prices continue to test lower and are generally lingering around in low ground and therefore remain vulnerable. Bouts of buying tend not to attract much follow through buying but at least there are bouts of buying around, as seen in zinc, lead and nickel. With data mixed-to-weak with better than expected data infrequent, it does look as though consumers are content to live hand-to-mouth and feel in no need to restock. So until the news flow brightens up, this sideways to lower direction in metals prices may continue. Based on fundamental outlook we remain mildly bullish for the medium to longer term, i.e. we are not bearish per se, but are having to wait longer than expected for an upturn.

Palladium prices are under pressure as they correct their recent run away rally. We would let this pullback run its course but expect dips will be supported closer to $800 per oz. Gold, silver and platinum prices are also consolidating recent gains and we would expect good underlying support. Yesterday’s US CPI data gave prices a boost, but the market has failed to hold on to the gains, suggesting the buying interest is thin.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

 

 

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Will Gold And Silver Enjoy Some Hammer Time?



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Look Out Below As Natural Gas Can Go Cheaper



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Gold And Silver Fall Apart Following FOMC Conference



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Financial Choice Act, FOMC Preview And Gold



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среда, 14 июня 2017 г.

False Breakout Could Be About To Send Gold Reeling



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Will Higher Gold Prices Stop Chinese Buying?



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Gold prices are holding up well, palladium’s rally consolidates

FastMarkets

This morning, the precious metals are also firmer, up an average of 0.4% led by a 0.7% gain in spot platinum prices, silver prices are up 0.5%, gold prices are up 0.2% at $1,269.06 per oz and palladium prices are unchanged. This comes after a generally weaker day when the white precious metals closed down an average of 1.3%, while the spot gold price closed up 0.1% at $1,265.30 per oz.

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part firmer this morning, Wednesday June 14, the exceptions are aluminium that is off 0.3% and copper that is slightly weaker, while the rest are up an average of 0.5%. Volume has been above average with 7,188 lots traded as of 07:24 BST.

In Shanghai this morning, copper prices are off 0.2% at 45,970 yuan per tonne ($6,764 per tonne) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), while the rest are up an average of 0.5%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.7% at 45,540-45,660 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has firmed to 8.02.

In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are weaker again, off 0.5% at 425 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 1% while gold and silver prices are up 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.

In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.2% at $48.31 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries is 2.2%, this ahead of this evening’s US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision which is expected to see the Fed raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%.

Equities ended Tuesday firmer with the Euro Stoxx 50 and Dow closing up 0.4%. In Asia this morning, the Nikkei, Kospi and Hang Seng are off 0.1%, the CSI 300 is off 1.2%, the ASX200 is up 1.1%.

The dollar remains in its downward trend with the dollar index at 96.90, after its latest rebound ran out of steam at 97.50. The euro is edging higher at 1.1220, sterling is strengthening at 1.2781, the yen is flat at 110.10 and the Australian dollar is climbing at 0.7557.

The yuan at 6.7970 remains firm but flat, the rand and peso are strengthening again, while the real is weaker and the other emerging market currencies we follow are for the most part flat.

The economic agenda is busy, data out already shows Chinese industrial production was unchanged at 6.5%, fixed asset investment, year-to date, dipped to 8.6% from 8.9%, retail sales were unchanged at 8.7%, Japan’s revised industrial production was unchanged at 4% and Germany’s final CPI was unchanged at -0.2%. Later there is data on UK employment, earnings and leading indicators, EU employment change and industrial production, with US data including CPI, retail sales, business inventories, crude oil inventories and the FOMC decision, statement and economic projections – see table below for more details.

The base metals remain in a ‘glass-half-empty’ mood; copper prices seem to be the ones trying to shake off their gloom while the others continue to drift with any effort to look brighter being short-lived. Tin may have turned a corner, but we wait to see how far this current rebound travels. With data mixed-to-weak with better than expected data infrequent, it does look as though consumers are content to live hand-to-mouth and feel in no need to restock. So until the news flow brightens up, this sideways to lower direction in metals prices may continue. Based on fundamental outlook we remain mildly bullish for the medium to longer term, i.e. we are not bearish per se, but are having to wait longer than expected for an upturn.

Gold prices are holding up well as they consolidate, silver and platinum prices are giving back some of their recent gains as they consolidate, while palladium priced are pausing after their steep rise. We wait to see if the rally has further to go, or whether it will stall. We do expect gold, silver and platinum prices to be well supported into dips.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

 

The post Gold prices are holding up well, palladium’s rally consolidates appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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CFTC Finally Finds One Trader Guilty of Metals Price Rigging



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вторник, 13 июня 2017 г.

All Golden Eyes On The Fed



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Gold Is Eagerly Waiting For The Fed Tomorrow



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Copper Price Forecast: Prices Rally Amid Weather, Labor Issues



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What Does The French Parliamentary Election Mean For Gold?



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понедельник, 12 июня 2017 г.

Zinc Seems Ready For A Technical Bounce Once Again



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PLATINUM TODAY: Prices consolidate, fund interest improves

Short term: Up
Medium term: Up
Long term: Up
Resistances:
R1   945  20 DMA
R2   967.50 Recent high
R3   990.50 April 17 peak.
Support:
S1   945  20 DMA
S2   931  SL
S3   925
S4
S5
  894 Recent low
889 Dec low
Stochastics:
Bearish

 

Legend:
BB = Bollinger band
HSL = horizontal support line
SL = support line
MACD = moving average convergence divergence
DTL = downtrend line
UTL = uptrend line
H&S = head-and-shoulder pattern

Analysis

  • Platinum prices have rebounded strongly after the April weakness broke support at $932 per oz. Prices fell to a low of $894, holding just $5 above the December 2016 low at $889.
  • Platinum prices are now holding onto gains better even if they have pulled back slightly from the recent high ground.
  • The stochastics are bearish and prices are back below the 20 DMA so for now the market is consolidating,
  • The monthly chart (inset) shows the downward trend since February dominates but a series of higher highs remains in place going back to early 2016. On balance, it looks as though platinum is content to oscillate sideways in an $890-1,050 range, which suggests a sufficiently supplied market.

Macro drivers

Platinum is seen to be the weaker of the PGMs, with Johnson Matthey forecasting a supply surplus for the first time in six years this year, while palladium’s supply deficit is expected to climb to 792,000 oz. This helps to explain why palladium prices are so bullish while platinum prices have struggled.

ETF investors have been building their exposure. Holdings of 2.49 million oz are now at the highest they have been all year, up from 2.386 million oz on May 4. This suggests bargain hunting is building. With palladium soaring, there may be some buying in platinum by those expecting the gap between the two metals to widen again.

Funds trading on Nymex turned net buyers in the week to May 16. Last week the net fund long position (NLFP) climbed 2,637 contracts to 19,683 contracts. The move was driven by 1,180 contracts of fresh buying and 1,457 contracts of short-covering, which is doubly bullish.

The NFLP has now climbed for four weeks but this is due to a fairly high gross short position at 25,134 contracts; the average since start of the year has been 15,833 contracts. So there may well be more short-covering to be done but we wait to see if the longs get more bullish.

Conclusion
Platinum prices have been weak but, in recent weeks, some bullishness has started to emerge. We wait to see if bargain hunting emerges. At some stage, we expect platinum’s discount to gold to shrink but there is little sign of that happening yet.

All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

The post PLATINUM TODAY: Prices consolidate, fund interest improves appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Palladium prices soar, gold prices consolidate

FastMarkets

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are split this morning, Monday June 12, with copper, aluminium, lead and zinc prices down between 0.2% and 0.5% – copper prices are off 0.5% at $5,801 per tonne – while tin and nickel prices are up 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively.

Volume has been average with 6,031 lots traded as at 06:59 BST. This comes after a generally positive day of trading on Friday June 9, when apart from tin that fell 1.5%, the base metals were up an average of 1.2%.

This morning, gold and silver prices are weaker by 0.8% and 1.8% at $1,267.06 per oz and $17.11 per oz, respectively, while palladium has rallied 4.6% to $898.80 per oz and platinum is up 0.7% at $944.20 per oz. This comes after a weaker day for gold and silver on Friday when prices were down 0.9% and 1.2% respectively, while platinum was little changed and palladium was up 2.9%.

In Shanghai this morning, the base metals trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are for the most part bullish, with prices up an average of 1.1%, led by a 2.1% gain in zinc prices, with lead prices up 1.9%, nickel prices up 1.2% and copper prices up 1.1% at 46,270 yuan per tonne ($6,806 per tonne), while aluminium prices are off 0.1%.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 1.3% at 46,180-46,380 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio remains low at 7.98.

In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have rebounded for a change, prices are up 2.5% at 433.50 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 1.4% while gold and silver prices are down 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down 0.2% at $48.35 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries is slightly firmer at 2.22%.

Equities ended Friday firmer with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.6% and the Dow closed up 0.4% at 21,271.97, although US tech companies showed some weakness with the Nasdaq composite closing down 1.8%. In Asia this morning, the Nikkei is off 0.5%, the Hang Seng is off 1.2%, the CSI 300 is off 0.2% and the Kospi is down 1%, all suggesting that the focus is on tech companies.

The dollar turned higher in the second half of last week and with the dollar index at 97.14, it is consolidating again having been as high at 97.50 on Friday. The euro is at 1.1214, sterling is rebounding at 1.2761, the yen at 110.24 is slightly weaker and the Australian dollar continues to consolidate at 0.7533.

The yuan at 6.7980 remains firm and the other emerging market currencies we follow are for the most part flat, although the Mexican peso continues to recover.

The economic agenda is quiet, data out of Japan showed producer price index (PPI) unchanged at 2.1%, while core machine orders and machine tool orders showed some weakness. Later there is data on Italian industrial production and US data on the Federal Budget balance – see table below for more details.

Copper and zinc prices picked up late last week following better Chinese trade data and that did underpin most of the other metals, the exception being tin where prices are under pressure as toll-smelting licences suggest more refined tin may flow out of China. The general rebound coincided with a stronger dollar and with some pick-up in Chinese metals prices, it may be that these rebounds have further to run, but it is too early to suggest overall sentiment has turned less bearish.

Gold, silver and platinum prices are giving back some of their recent gains as prices consolidate. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data out on Friday showed a large increase in the fund net long gold position, which bodes well, so for now we see the weakness in gold prices as being consolidation. Palladium prices, however, continue to soar in what looks like a short-squeeze. We do expect gold, silver and platinum prices to be well supported into dips.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

 

 

The post Palladium prices soar, gold prices consolidate appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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суббота, 10 июня 2017 г.

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пятница, 9 июня 2017 г.

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четверг, 8 июня 2017 г.

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Gold prices consolidate ahead of today’s key events

FastMarkets

Gold prices are little changed at $1,285.40 per oz this morning, while the other more industrial precious metals prices are up between 0.2% for silver and 0.9% for palladium, again this was after a down day on Wednesday when the complex closed off an average of 1.4%.

Base metals prices are up an average of 0.6% with gains seen across the board on the London Metal Exchange this morning, Thursday June 8, helped by better Chinese trade data that showed imports and exports picked up in May.

Volume has been average with 6,521 lots traded with prices up between 1% for lead and 0.3% aluminium. Three-month copper prices were up 0.4% at $5,645 per tonne as at 06:29 BST. This comes after a generally weak day on Wednesday when the base metals complex closed down by an average of 0.6%, led by a 1.5% drop in tin prices to $19,400 per tonne, while copper bucked the trend, with prices closing up 0.1%.

In Shanghai this morning, the base metals trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are split with copper, aluminium, lead and zinc up an average of 0.7%, with copper prices at 45,190 yuan ($6,651) per tonne, while nickel and tin prices are off around 0.4%.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.1% at 44,940-45,140 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.02.

In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are off 0.5% at 429.50 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 1.9% and gold and silver prices are down 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.

In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.5% at $48.40 per barrel, this after falling on Wednesday on a pick-up in US oil inventories and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries is slightly firmer at 2.18%, showing some consolidation as we move into an eventful day on Thursday with the UK election, former US Federal Bureau of Investigation director James Comey’s testimony before the US Senate Intelligence Committee and the European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision.

Equities ended Wednesday mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.2% and the Dow up 0.2% at 21,173.69. In Asia this morning, the Nikkei is down 0.3%, China’s CSI 300 is up 0.5%, the Hang Seng is up 0.1% and the Kospi and ASX 200 are little changed.

The dollar remains weak with the dollar index at 96.62, conversely the euro is firm at 1.1268, sterling at 1.2968 is climbing, as are the yen at 109.47 and the Australian dollar at 0.7550.

The yuan at 6.7931 remains firm and the other emerging market currencies we follow are flat-to-firmer.

The economic agenda is busy – in dollar terms China’s exports grew 8.7% in May and imports climbed 14.8%, both better than expected, especially imports. Japan’s final GDP was 0.3%, down from an advanced reading of 0.5%, bank lending was up 3.2%, the current account increased and Japan’s economic watchers sentiment climbed to 48.6 from 48.1. Later, there is data on German industrial production, the French trade balance, EU GDP, US initial jobless claims and natural gas storage. In addition, it is ECB monetary policy decision and statement day – see table below for more details.

Will China’s better trade data put a floor under the slide in base metals prices? Early trading suggests they are, but we need to see if follow through buying now takes advantage of the lower prices and the lower dollar.

Gold prices, having set a fresh high at $1,295.55 per oz on May 6, have since consolidated. The result of today key issues, the UK election result and its likely impact on Brexit negotiations, the ECB monetary policy direction and the market’s reaction to Comey’s testimony, are likely to set the near term direction for gold prices and we may end up having a choppy afternoon of trading. Silver and platinum are likely to follow gold’s lead, while palladium looks set to consolidate recent strength.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

 

The post Gold prices consolidate ahead of today’s key events appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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среда, 7 июня 2017 г.

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вторник, 6 июня 2017 г.

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понедельник, 5 июня 2017 г.

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Gold prices hold up well, looking robust

FastMarkets

The precious metals prices are also all off slightly this morning, Thursday June 1, with gold and silver prices off 0.2% and with the platinum group metals little changed. This after a general day of strength on Wednesday that saw the complex close up an average of 0.6%.

The base metals on the London Metal Exchange are down across the board by a fairly uniform amount of between 0.1% and 0.3% this morning, with three-month copper prices off 0.3% at $5,677 per tonne.

Volume has been slightly above average with 6,372 lots traded as of 06:11 BST; zinc has seen the highest volume with 2,555 lots traded, compared with 1,690 lots of copper. Zinc prices are off 0.2% at $2,112 per tonne.

Weak Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI that dropped to 49.6 from 50.3 and below the 50.2 expected, is a depressing factor this morning. The Caixin reading is for medium to smaller companies, rather than the official reading, out on Wednesday that is for larger and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that held steady at 51.2. The poor Caixin number no doubt reflects the liquidity squeeze underway in China that will be affecting private companies more that the larger SOEs.

Base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are generally weaker this morning, down an average of 0.6%, although lead has for once bucked the trend on the upside with a 0.5% gain. Conversely, zinc is down 1.9%, nickel prices are down 1.1% and July copper prices are off 0.6% at 45,280 yuan ($6,720) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down 0.8% at 45,190-45,390 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weaker at 7.98, implying SHFE prices are falling at a faster pace than LME prices, which is further increasing the negative arbitrage gap.

Other metals prices in China are also weaker today with September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange down 4.3% at 419.50 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down 3.3% and gold and silver prices are off 0.1%.

In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.4% at $51.15 per barrel. The yield on the US ten-year treasuries is weaker 2.21%, which suggests a degree of risk-off.

Equities were weaker on Wednesday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.2% and the Dow closed down 0.1% at 21,008.65. Asia, this morning, is mainly firmer with the Nikkei up 1.2%, the Hang Seng is up 0.4%, the ASX 200 is up 0.1%, while the Kospi is down 0.1% and the CSI 300 is down 0.2%.

The dollar index’s latest rebound attempt has stalled with the index recently quoted at 97.03 after a peak of 97.78 on Tuesday. The trend in the dollar is still downward, which is odd given the market is so convinced of an interest rate rise in June. The euro is trying higher again at 1.1240, sterling shook off its poll jitters on Wednesday, it is firmer at 1.2862, the yen is treading water at 110.97 but the Australian dollar at 0.7402 is suffering on the back of weaker commodity prices and the poor Chinese PMI number.

The yuan is racing higher, it was recently quoted at 6.7317, after 6.8446 on Friday May 26. Most of the other emerging market currencies we follow are flat, although the rupee and real are firmer.

The economic agenda is busy today, in contrast to the Chinese PMI, Japan’s data has been stronger with capital spending rising 4.5%, against expectations of 3.8% rise and its manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.1, from 52. Later there is data on UK house prices and manufacturing data out across Europe, with US data including Challenger job cuts, ADP non-farm employment change, initial jobless claims, revised non-farm productivity, unit labour costs, final and ISM manufacturing PMIs and prices, construction spending, oil inventories, natural gas storage and total vehicle sales – see table below for more details.

Wednesday’s initial weaker tone on the LME did run into some buying for copper, aluminium, lead and tin, while nickel and zinc were weaker. Generally, we would put nickel in its own washed-out space for now, although looking oversold, nickel prices may well fall further until more news about supply emerges. For the rest, copper, aluminium and tin seem content to hold up near recent high ground, while lead and zinc consolidate nearer low ground, but still considerably up from the lows, unlike nickel. Overall we feel prices will remain rangebound, the slowdown in China is a concern, but we expect it will be well managed, while we also see the weakness in metals prices as being partially due to the surge in supply that the post-US election rally produced. As this extra supply is absorbed, we expect the supply fundamentals will tighten up again.

Gold prices continue to hold up well and if the dollar heads lower again that should remain the case, especially as political uncertainty remains in place in the USA, EU/US relationships are strained, Italy could call an early election and the UK election, combined with the approaching start of Brexit negotiations, could cause some market jitters. We expect gold prices to remain robust.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

 

The post Gold prices hold up well, looking robust appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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