вторник, 28 февраля 2017 г.
PLATINUM TODAY: Consolidating today, but looking stronger overall
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понедельник, 27 февраля 2017 г.
PLATINUM TODAY: Prices meeting stiff resistance
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воскресенье, 26 февраля 2017 г.
суббота, 25 февраля 2017 г.
пятница, 24 февраля 2017 г.
GOLD TODAY: Prices overcome resistance, confirming robust sentiment
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Gold prices extend2017 gains, rally looking robust
FastMarkets
While the base metals struggled on Thursday February 23, precious metals prices had gains of between 0.4% for palladium prices and 1% for gold and silver prices, while platinum prices were up 0.8%. There have been follow through gains in the precious metals this morning too, with prices up an average of 0.5%, led by a 0.8% gain in palladium, while gold prices are up 0.3% at $1,252.87 per oz.
The base metals are firmer this morning, Friday February 24, with metals prices on the London Metal Exchange up an average of 1.1%, led by a 1.5% gain in nickel prices, while copper is up 0.5% at $5,898 per tonne and aluminium is up the least with a 0.2% rise.
Volume has been higher than recently, with 8,233 lots traded as of 07:02 GMT. This price rebound follows a very weak day on Thursday that saw prices down an average of 2.1%, led by a 2.9% fall in copper prices that closed at $5,853 per tonne.
In Shanghai, the base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are down 1.3% on average with copper prices off 1.9% at 47,660 yuan per tonne, while tin is off the least with a 0.8% fall. Spot copper in Changjiang is down 2.6% at 47,120-47,320 yuan per tonne – this reflects the weakness the market saw on the opening after the sell-off on the LME on Thursday, the weaker prices therefore do seem to have attracted some bargain hunting as the Asian morning has progressed. The LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has weakened to 8.08.
In other metals in China, May iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are down 2.4%, on SHFE steel rebar prices are off 1.7%, while gold prices are up 1.4% and silver prices are up 1.1%. In international markets spot Brent crude oil prices are off 0.1% at $56.38 per barrel and US 10-year treasuries are 2.3795%.
In equities on Thursday, the Euro Stoxx 50 was off 0.2% and the Dow closed up 0.2%. Asia this morning is generally weaker with the Kospi off 0.6%, the Nikkei and Hang Seng are off 0.5%, the ASX 200 is down 0.8% and the CSI 300 is little changed.
In FX, the dollar index pulled back on Thursday and was recently quoted at 100.93, down from a high on Thursday of 101.72. The euro is firmer at 1.0590, as are the Australian dollar at 0.7716, the yen at 112.79 and the sterling at 1.2553. The yuan is flat at 6.8710, but most of the emerging market currencies we follow are showing strength, especially the rupee, peso and rand – all of which suggests a fairly confident broader market.
The economic calendar is relatively light today with UK mortgage approvals, US new home sales and revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations – see table below for more details.
A wave of weakness flushed through the base metals on Thursday, which has put all prices on more of a back footing but the fact rebounds are being seen this morning, suggests bargain hunting and a weaker dollar will be helping with that. The sell-offs suggests a degree liquidation as prices had struggled to make headway after recent strength. Given the pullback and initial rebound this morning, we will now need to see what follow through trading there is this morning as Europe and then the US open up.
Earlier on this week, the precious metals had an opportunity to sell-off but dips were bought into and gold and silver prices have since pushed higher to extend this year’s rally – this shows the overall rally remains robust and underlying sentiment remains bullish. The PGMs have yet to push above recent highs. We remain bullish for bullion and platinum, less so for palladium.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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четверг, 23 февраля 2017 г.
PALLADIUM TODAY: Sell-off reinforced by hawkish Fed
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среда, 22 февраля 2017 г.
Gold prices held back by strong dollar headwinds
FastMarkets
Precious metals are holding their ground this morning, Wednesday February 22, with gold and silver prices either side of unchanged, with spot gold at $1,235.10 per oz, while palladium is up 0.6% and platinum is up 0.2%. This follows on from Tuesday’s general weakness that saw silver prices fall 0.5%, gold and silver prices closed down 0.2%, although palladium bucked the trend with a 0.6% gain. At one stage on Tuesday the precious metals were all looking decidedly weaker, but worse-than-expected US data prompted a reversal.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part drifting lower this morning, with prices down an average of 0.5% on volume of 7,725 lots as of 06:54 GMT.
Tin is the only metal in positive territory, zinc prices are off the most with a 1.1% decline, copper and nickel prices are off 0.7%, with three-month copper prices at $6,014 per tonne, aluminium prices are down 0.6% and lead is off 0.5%. Today’s weaker tone follows Tuesday’s weakness that saw prices pullback an average of 1.2%, led by a 2.9% drop in nickel prices to $10,835 per tonne.
In Shanghai this morning, the base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are weaker across the board with prices down an average of 1.6% – nickel prices lead the decline with a 2.6% drop, followed by a 2.1% drop in aluminium prices. Copper prices are down 0.8% at 48,650 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.7% at 48,450-48,650 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.09.
In other metals in China, May iron ore prices are off 0.8% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, on SHFE steel rebar prices are down 1.7%, gold prices are unchanged and silver prices are down 0.2%. In international markets spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.3% at $56.78 per barrel and the ten-year US treasuries have a yield of 2.4523%.
Equities were firmer on Tuesday on the back of good results and further signs of global economic strength with generally good manufacturing PMI data. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.8%, the Dow closed up 0.6% and this morning Asian markets are generally firmer, too. The Nikkei is little changed, the Hang Seng is up 0.8% and the Kospi, CSI 300 and ASX 200 are all up around 0.2%.
In FX, the dollar index remains upbeat at 101.48 and strength in the dollar is keeping the cap on other currencies with the euro at 1.0526, the sterling at 1.2493, the yen at 113.42 and the Australian dollar at 0.7688. In emerging market (EM) currencies, the yuan is trading sideways at 6.8632, most of the other EM currencies we follow are also consolidating, although the peso has started to rebound.
The economic calendar is busy today with German Ifo business climate, UK GDP, index of services and business investment. There is data on EU CPI and the ECB’s long term refinancing operation, Chinese leading indicators, US existing home sales and the minutes from the last US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. In addition, UK MPC members Sir Jon Cunliffe and Nemat Shafik and FOMC member Jerome Powell are speaking – see table below for more details.
Consolidation seems the order of the day for the base metals as the higher price levels attract profit-taking and forward selling. The firmer dollar is also probably acting as a stronger headwind now that the dollar looks like it may start to trend higher again. That said, we expect metals’ prices to remain underpinned as we sense sentiment remains largely bullish for the industrial metals, supported by generally good PMI and other data.
Gold prices have levelled off either side $1,235 per oz, we see this as consolidation, but the fact they are holding up well in the face of the stronger dollar also suggests underlying sentiment remains committed. If prices struggle to make headway we would not be surprised to see prices dip as some of the weaker longs take profits. We started to see some weakness on Tuesday morning, but it was short-lived, but it did suggests there was some selling interest around though and there may therefore be more.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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вторник, 21 февраля 2017 г.
SILVER TODAY: Rally looking tired in the short term
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Gold prices edge lower as dollar strengthens
FastMarkets
The precious metals are little changed this morning, Tuesday February 21, with spot gold prices off 0.2% at $1,234.18 per oz, silver prices are off 0.3%, while platinum is unchanged and palladium prices are up 0.1%. On Monday, gold, silver and platinum prices were firmer by an average of 0.3%, while palladium prices were off 0.6%.
Base metals prices are consolidating on the London Metal Exchange this morning with prices down an average of 0.3%, with all the metals, except tin, off between 0.2% for zinc and 0.7% for nickel – volume has been average with 6,164 lots traded as of 06:48 GMT.
Today’s slight pullback comes after a strong performance on Monday when the base metals complex closed up with average gains of 1.5%, led by lead and zinc that were up 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively, while three-month copper prices closed up 1.7% at $6,070 per tonne.
In Shanghai this morning, the base metals are firmer across the board by an average of 1.2% with gains between 0.3% for nickel and 2.1% for zinc, while copper prices are up 1.1% at 48,930 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 1.2% at 48,800-49,000 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.09.
In other metals in China, May iron ore prices have surged 3.9% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, on SHFE steel rebar prices are up 1.6%, while gold prices are off 0.2% and silver prices are up 0.2%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.2% at $56.21 per barrel.
Equities are holding up but not rallying much with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.1% on Monday and the Dow closing little changed. Asia this morning, for the most part, remains upbeat with the Nikkei up 0.7%, the Kospi is up 0.9%, the Hang Seng is off 0.6%, the CSI 300 is up 0.3% and the ASX 200 is off 0.1%.
In FX, the dollar index appears to be starting off on another up leg with the index recently quoted at 101.60 – some hawkish US Fed talk saying a March rate rise is not off the table is boosting the dollar. Conversely, other major currencies are weaker with the euro at 1.0584, the yen at 113.50, the Australian dollar at 0.7664 and the sterling at 1.2445. Emerging market currencies are also slightly weaker with the yuan at 6.8630 and the rest on a slight back footing.
The economic agenda is busy with the focus on flash manufacturing and services PMI data. Japan’s manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.5 from 52.7, but the country’s all industries activity dropped 0.3%. In addition to PMI data there is data out on French CPI, UK borrowing and UK inflation. Furthermore, there is an EU Ecofin meeting and US Federal Open Market Committee members Neel Kashkari and Patrick Harker are speaking – see table below for more details.
The base metals are for the most part consolidating this morning after rebounding on Monday. High prices appear to be attracting profit-taking and some selling, while the stronger dollar is a headwind too. That said, the underlying sentiment remains bullish and we expect that to remain the case as the seasonally stronger second quarter still lies ahead.
Gold prices are trading sideways, there appears to be supply above $1,240 per oz that is capping the upside for now. The fact prices are holding up given the strength in equities and the dollar suggests underlying sentiment remains bullish, but if prices fail to get upside momentum then there are likely to be bouts of stale long liquidation that cause price pullbacks. We would expect dips to be well supported though. Silver and the PGMs seems to be showing a bit more weakness this morning, which is in line with the weaker tone being seen in the base metals too.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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понедельник, 20 февраля 2017 г.
Gold prices hold up despite headwinds
FastMarkets
Precious metals prices are little changed this morning, Monday February 20, with spot gold prices last at $1,234 per oz, this suggests prices are consolidating after Friday’s weakness when prices fell an average of 0.9%, with the PGM prices falling more than bullion prices.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part firmer this morning with three-month copper prices leading the way with a 0.8% gain to $6,019 per tonne, lead prices are up 0.7%, tin prices are off 0.8%, while the rest are little changed.
Volume has been average with 6,718 lots traded as of 07:00 GMT. This morning’s general firmness comes after a day of weakness for most of the metals on Friday February 17, which was led by 1.9% falls in lead and zinc prices.
In Shanghai this morning, the base metals on SHFE are mostly lower, copper prices are up 0.3% at 48,760 yuan per tonne, nickel prices are up 0.8%, while the rest are weaker with zinc off 1.9%, aluminium is off 0.8% while lead and tin are off marginally. Spot copper prices in Changjiang settled down 0.5% at 48,200-48,400 yuan per tonne, but with the futures now rising, it shows that early weakness in the market is being reversed, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.1.
In other metals in China, May iron ore prices are up 0.4% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, on SHFE steel rebar prices are up 2.6%, while gold and silver prices are off 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.6% at $56.02 per barrel.
Equities ended little changed on Friday, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.1% and the Dow closed up just four points, but Asia this morning is firmer with the Nikkei up 0.1%, the Hang Seng is up 0.6%, the CSI 300 is up 1.5% and the Kospi is up 0.2%, although the ASX 200 is off 0.2%.
In FX, the dollar index is consolidating either side of the 101 level, it was recently quoted 100.83. The euro is at 1.0625, the sterling is flat at 1.2435, the yen is at 113.12 and the Australian dollar is firmer at 0.7685. The yuan is consolidating in low ground at 6.8746, while most of the other emerging market currencies we follow are consolidating with a slightly weaker bias following recent strength.
Data out today showed UK house prices rising more than expected and higher than expected German PPI, data out later includes a German Bundesbank monthly report, UK industrial order expectations and EU consumer confidence – see table below for more details. Most US markets are closed for the Presidents’ Day federal holiday.
The base metals generally seem to be consolidating in high ground following recent price strength that attracted scale up selling. The exception is nickel that is managing to continue with its rebound as the market puts a bullish slant on the developments over nickel ore shipments from Indonesia and the Philippines. Overall, the underlying tone seems bullish, but prices have already done a lot, so it may be that the market needs more proof that the fundamentals are tightening before prices can continue higher.
The precious metals continue to hold up in high ground and the fact they are doing so despite a hawkish US Fed and strength in other markets, which raises the opportunity cost of holding gold, suggests there is still enough nervousness about what lies ahead in the geopolitical arena to support the precious metals complex.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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воскресенье, 19 февраля 2017 г.
суббота, 18 февраля 2017 г.
пятница, 17 февраля 2017 г.
Gold prices consolidate, but have held up well and look robust
FastMarkets
Precious metals are consolidating this morning Friday February 17, either side of unchanged with spot gold prices at $1,237.89 per oz, but this is after a bullish day on Thursday, when prices closed up with gains of between 0.3% and 0.6%.
The base metals on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part weaker this morning. Tin and copper prices are little changed, with three-month copper prices at $5,991 per tonne, while the rest are down an average of 1.1%. Volume has been average with 7,886 lots traded as of 06:25 GMT.
Thursday’s trading was also generally weaker with copper, aluminium, lead and tin prices down between 0.6% to 1.1%, while zinc was off 0.2% and nickel bucked the trend with a 1.3% gain to $11,050 per tonne – underpinned by a net bullish interpretation of the recent changes in nickel ore supplies from Indonesia and the Philippines.
In Shanghai this morning, the base metals trading on Shanghai Futures Exchange are weaker with prices down an average of 1.4%, led by a 2.5% drop in lead and a 2.2% fall in aluminium prices. Copper prices are off 1% at 48,470 yuan per tonne, zinc and tin prices are down 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively, and nickel is off the least with a 0.5% fall. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are off 0.9% at 48,460-48,660 yuan per tonne, a similar amount to the fall in the futures prices, suggesting prices started weaker this morning and have remained weak as profit-taking and scale-up selling emerges into the recent price strength. The LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.09 which suggests the arb window remains closed.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices for the May Dalian Commodity Exchange contracts are up 0.5%, on SHFE steel rebar prices are up 1.1%, gold prices are up 0.7% and silver prices are off 0.1%. So apart from the ferrous part of the market, industrial metals seem to be consolidating today. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are little changed at $55.70 per barrel and US ten year treasuries yields are around 2.4555%.
The latest equity run higher seems to have stalled with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.4% on Thursday and the Dow closed little changed at 20,620. Asian equities this morning are weaker with the Nikkei off 0.6%, the Hang Seng and CSI are down 0.4%, the ASX 200 is off 0.2% and the Kospi is off 0.1%.
In FX, the dollar index’s rally appears to have stalled, it was recently quoted at 100.53, which suggests the rebound in recent weeks, driven by US tax reform expectations, may have been just a counter trend move within the downward trend that has been seen since the start of the year – that is the chart view at least. But, on a macro view it seems more likely that interest rate rises and tax reforms will boost the dollar further – that is if these expectations are not already baked into the strong dollar that since the US election has climbed from around 97 to a high of 103.80.
The weaker dollar this morning has led to stronger major currencies with the euro at 1.0670, the yen is firmer at 113.40, while the sterling and the Australian dollar are flat at 1.2495 and 0.7697, respectively. The yuan at 6.8658 is consolidating and most of the other emerging market (EM) currencies we follow are slightly weaker. Following their recent show of strength EM currencies seem to be more in tune with the dollar. The one EM currency we are watching closely is the rand that is showing strength with its move below 13.0000.
The economic agenda is light with data coming out on the EU current account, UK retail sales and US leading indicators – see table below for more details.
The base metals seem to be consolidating recent gains, which in many of the metals have seen prices at levels not seen since 2015, while nickel and tin prices are consolidating after the strong rebounds that followed the January sell-offs. We generally remain bullish for the metals’ fundamentals but need to take into account that many of the metals prices have already moved a long way and going forward the market may need to see more evidence of tightness in the fundamentals, as in seeing exchange stocks fall, before prices can continue higher.
The precious metals prices, especially gold and silver, are looking robust – dips have been seen but they have been shallow and short-lived, even with the dollar showing strength in recent weeks. We remain bullish for the precious metals complex.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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