четверг, 29 марта 2018 г.
среда, 28 марта 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 28/03: Metals prices consolidating after recent weakness
In precious metals, gold and silver are consolidating recent gains, with prices off by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, with gold at $1,341.05 per oz. Meanwhile, platinum prices are up by 0.2% and palladium prices are up by 0.3%.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are down across the board by an average of 0.6% this morning, Wednesday March 28. Losses are bunched together between 0.9% for lead and 0.3% for aluminium, with copper off by 0.7% at $6,613 per tonne.
Volume has been average with 7,833 lots traded as of 07:47 am London time.
Although prices are lower, most of the metals seem to be trying to consolidate, having appeared to start putting in bases in recent days – the exception is aluminium that continues to sink, it is at the lowest it has been since mid-December 2017.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange this morning, base metals prices are down by an average of 0.4%, led by a 1.2% fall in tin prices. Lead prices are bucking the trend with a 0.5% gain and copper prices are off by 0.1% at 49,400 yuan ($7,871) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 0.4% at 49,080-49,200 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio is at 7.47.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 1.7% at 435 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up by 0.5%, while gold and silver prices are down by 0.7% and 1.1% respectively.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up by 0.32% at $69.76 per barrel and the yield on US 10-year treasuries is weaker at 2.78%, as is the German 10-year bund yield at 0.49%.
Equity markets in Asia are weaker this morning: CSI 300 (-1.84%), ASX 200 (-0.73%), Hang Seng (-1.73%), Kospi (-1.34%) and Nikkei (-1.34%). This follows a mixed performance in western markets on Tuesday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 1.43% at 23,857.71, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 1.2% at 3,316.95.
The dollar index at 89.47 is trying to get some lift after a weaker start to the week, but while below the 90 level it is looking vulnerable. The major currencies are as a consequence slightly weaker: sterling (1.4146), euro (1.2388), yen (105.65) and Australian dollar (0.7678). The yuan is giving back some of its recent gains, it was recently quoted at 6.2821, having been as strong as 6.2409 on Tuesday. Most of the emerging market currencies we follow are on a back footing, the exception being the ringgit.
Economic data out already today showed Germany’s GfK consumer climate edged up to 10.9 from 10.8. Data out later includes UK CBI realized sales, UK GfK consumer confidence along with US data including final gross domestic product (GDP), GDP prices, goods trade balance, preliminary wholesale inventories, pending home sales and crude oil inventories. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Raphael Bostic is speaking.
Most of the base metals started to see some bargain hunting on Monday and Tuesday – the exception is aluminium – but with prices off again this morning, the market seems to be waiting to see if earlier strength has just been a pause in the sell-off. Concerns over trade wars linger and that seems to be deterring bargain hunters from chasing prices higher. Overall, we remain bullish on the outlook for the global economy so we see this correction as temporary and are on the looking out for buying opportunities. The second quarter lies ahead and any let-up in trade tensions may well spark another round of buying from consumers and investors alike.
Gold’s strong rebound following last week’s FOMC rate decision, which has also been fueled by a pick-up in trade tensions, is now consolidating and we expect the dips to be well supported. Silver is mirroring gold’s move, while platinum and palladium prices are taking their cue from the weaker industrial metals.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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вторник, 27 марта 2018 г.
понедельник, 26 марта 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 26/03: Gold prices slip back following last week’s rebound
In precious metals, gold prices are off by 0.2% at $1,344.89 per oz, while silver and platinum prices are little changed and palladium prices are up by 0.4%.
The pullback in gold prices in recent weeks ran into buying on March 25 (the day after the FOMC rate decision) and prices have rebounded strongly. The potential fallout from a trade war as well as increased geopolitical tensions are helping fuel the rally. Silver prices are following gold, but the platinum group metals are under pressure in line with the industrial metals.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are down across the board by an average of 0.5% this morning, Monday March 26, led by a 1.1% fall in copper to $6,577 per tonne.
Volume has been high with 12,433 lots traded as of 07:18 am London time.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange this morning, base metals prices are down by an average of 1.2%, led by a 2.7% fall in nickel prices and a 2.1% fall in copper prices to 49,210 yuan ($7,792) per tonne. The one metal bucking the trend is zinc, where prices are up by 0.1%, which may well mean bargain hunting is starting to be seen in zinc, which has been one of the strongest metals over the past nine months.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 1.6% at 48,880-49,160 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio is at 7.48.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 1.8% at 439.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down by 3.1%, while gold and silver prices are up by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are holding on to gains with prices recently quoted at $70.27 per barrel, this as geopolitical risks rise in the Middle East. The yield on US 10-year treasuries is at 2.84%, while the German 10-year bund yield is at 0.53%.
Equity markets in Asia are mixed this morning: CSI 300 (-1.82%), ASX 200 (-0.52%), Hang Seng (-0.54%), Kospi (+0.84%) and Nikkei (+0.53%). This follows weakness in western markets on Friday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 1.77% at 23,533.20, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 1.5% at 3,298.07.
The dollar index at 89.44 is looking weaker again as prices test the bottom of the recent sideways trading range. Sterling at 1.4167 is firmer, as is the yen at 105.05, while the euro at 1.2366 is flat-to-firmer and the Australian dollar at 0.7740 is on a back footing. The yuan is looking firmer at 6.3067, while the emerging market currencies we follow are mixed with the rand, peso and ringgit showing strength, while the rupiah, rupee and real are showing weakness.
There is little economic data out today, although there are numerous central bankers giving speeches including Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann and US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members William Dudley, Loretta Mesters and Randal Quarles.
The corrections in the base metals continue – tin and lead prices appear to have found some support, while the others are still looking weak. Concerns over a trade war are no doubt weighing on sentiment as is recent economic data, including the flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data. This morning there is some positive spin on the trade disputes, which is giving equity markets some cheer, so we wait to see if that flows into the metals. We see the pullbacks on metals prices as providing another buying opportunity, but how the trade issues pans out will be all important.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
The post METALS MORNING VIEW 26/03: Gold prices slip back following last week’s rebound appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
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воскресенье, 25 марта 2018 г.
пятница, 23 марта 2018 г.
четверг, 22 марта 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 21/03: Precious metal prices showing gains, traders await outcome of FOMC meeting
The precious metals prices are showing gains across the board this morning: Gold (+0.4%) at $1,315.08 per oz, silver (+0.6%), platinum (+0.4%) and palladium (+0.3%).
The precious metals are also consolidating in recent low ground, which suggests investors are also waiting on the sidelines, as they are with the base metals – we expect dips to remain well supported. Any hawkish tone from the FOMC meeting could well lead to more of a sell-off, even if it turns out to be a knee-jerk reaction.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part weaker this morning, Wednesday March 21, with all of the metals, except lead and tin, showing average losses of 0.3%. Copper is down by 0.4% at $6,732 per tonne, while lead is up by 0.4% at $2,360 per tonne and tin is little changed.
Volume has been average with 7,278 lots traded as of 07.38 am London time.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange this morning, lead prices are unchanged, while the rest are down by between 0.4% for aluminium and 1.7% for zinc, with copper prices off by 1.5% at 50,580 yuan ($7,987) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 0.8% at 50,460-50,580 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio is at 7.51.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 0.9% at 463 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down by 0.5%, while gold and silver prices are little changed.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are off by 0.09% at $67.54 per barrel and the yield on US 10-year treasuries is at 2.88%, while the German 10-year bund yield is at 0.58%.
Equity markets in Asia are mixed this morning: CSI 300 (-0.41%), ASX 200 (+0.23%), while the Kospi and Hang Seng are little changed and the Nikkei is closed. This follows strength in western markets on Tuesday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.47% at 24,727.27, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.51% at 3,412.08.
The dollar index at 90.18 is moving sideways-to-higher, with traders waiting to see what the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement says. The other major currencies are for the most part consolidating: Euro (1.2276), sterling (1.4028), yen (106.34) and the Australian dollar (0.7700). The yuan is likewise consolidating at 6.3300, while the emerging market currencies we follow are mixed with the ringgit and peso consolidating, while the rand, real, rupee and rupiah are on a back footing.
Economic data out today includes UK employment data, earnings and industrial order expectations, with US data including the current account, existing home sales, crude oil inventories, followed by the FOMC rate decision, statement, economic projections and press conference. The outcome of the FOMC meeting may well provide the markets with fresh direction.
Copper, aluminium and tin prices are leading on the downside, while lead, zinc and nickel prices are weak but are holding up better than the others. Despite the price weakness it does not feel that sentiment in the base metals camp is particularly weak, although it is no doubt concerned about a potential trade war, but neither is it bullish and in this environment buyers seem in no hurry to buy/chase prices higher, while stale long liquidation seems to be weighing on prices.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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среда, 21 марта 2018 г.
вторник, 20 марта 2018 г.
понедельник, 19 марта 2018 г.
воскресенье, 18 марта 2018 г.
пятница, 16 марта 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 16/03: Gold prices showing gains across the board
The precious metals prices are showing gains across the board this morning: Gold (+0.2%) at $1,317.83 per oz, silver (+0.4%), platinum (+0.5%) and palladium (+0.6%). This follows weakness on Thursday when the complex closed down by an average of 1%.
The precious metals are also consolidating in recent low ground, which suggests investors are also waiting on the sidelines, as they are with the base metals – we expect dips to remain well supported.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part stronger this morning, Friday March 16, with all of the metals, except tin, showing average gains of 0.4%. Copper is up by 0.5% at $6,956 per tonne, while tin is off by 0.1% at $20,970 per tonne.
Volume has been light with 4,565 lots traded as of 06.29am London time.
This follows a day of weakness on Thursday, with the complex closing down by an average of 1.1%, ranged between unchanged for lead and down by 2.1% for nickel.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange this morning, lead and zinc prices are up by 0.3%, aluminium prices are little changed, nickel prices are off by 0.8%, copper prices are down by 0.3% at 52,230 yuan ($8,262) per tonne and tin prices are off by 0.1%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 0.7% at 51,280-51,460 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio is at 7.50.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 1.2% at 483.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up by 0.1%, while gold and silver prices are weaker by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up by 0.09% at $65.13 per barrel and the yield on US 10-year treasuries is at 2.83%, while the German 10-year bund yield is weaker at 0.57%.
Equity markets in Asia are mixed this morning: Nikkei (-0.58%), Hang Seng (-0.13%), CSI 300 (-0.48%), ASX 200 (+0.48%) and Kospi (+0.06%). This follows strength in western markets on Thursday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.47% at 24,873.66, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.68% at 3,414.13.
The dollar index at 90.02 is still consolidating above what could be a base formation that had built up in late-January and mid-February. The other major currencies we follow are also consolidating: Euro (1.2317), sterling (1.3946), yen (106.92) and the Australian dollar (0.7801). The yuan is likewise consolidating at 6.3237, while the emerging market currencies we follow are for the most part still consolidating.
Economic data already out shows weaker Japanese industrial orders that fell 6.8%, while data out later includes German wholesale price index (WPI), EU consumer price index (CPI), UK leading indicators. US data including building permits, housing starts, industrial production and capacity utilization, University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations and Jolts job openings is also due.
For the most part the base metals are consolidating, with aluminium and tin continuing to show weakness, while nickel prices have held up the best overall in recent weeks.
A comment from International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde in a recent blog post sums up the current situation well: “Even though the sun still shines in the global economy, there are more clouds on the horizon. Think of the growing concerns over trade tensions, the recent spike in volatility in financial markets, and more uncertain geopolitics.”
Overall, we see the base metals prices as consolidating as they wait to see how strong China’s demand is post Lunar New Year and how far the trade wars reach.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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INTERVIEW: LME modifying technology to allow for multiple contract launches this year, CEO says
The London Metal Exchange is modifying its technology to allow it to launch multiple contracts at once, something it plans to do at the end of the year, according to the exchange’s chief executive officer.
Matthew Chamberlain said that the move, designed to add a level of dynamism to the LME’s systems, would delink the launch of new contracts from the release of new technology.
The exchange is then aiming to launch up to six contracts in one go by year-end, dependent on regulatory approvals and the readiness of members, he told Metal Bulletin in an interview.
“From a technological implementation perspective, what we’re doing is updating our systems such that they can be dynamic, so we don’t have to introduce new contracts as part of a systems release – instead we can just do it by adding the contracts in, which is what a lot of our competitors can do,” he said.
“The big piece of work this year is to make the systems dynamic in that way. What we want to do is to delink the launching of contracts from technology,” he added.
According to Chamberlain, the problem facing the LME in the past has been the fact that contract launches have been inextricably linked to technology.
“We’ve had to commit to a hard launch date but then the members aren’t ready and we’ve had to move the date around. The art here is to give ourselves the ability to launch contracts as a configuration matter rather than a full technology build,” he added.
Although no specific timeframe has been set – “We’re taking a little bit of time rather than add contracts one by one, to give us the full dynamic implementation, but certainly the plan is for that to happen this year” – Chamberlain said the goal is to launch five or six contracts on day one, “and be able to add more as we go.”
Aside from reducing the time and cost constraints of regular technology overhauls, the move would also give the LME the ability to be more exploratory in its approach to new contracts, Chamberlain said.
For instance, the LME has been asked to consider launching cash-settled aluminium premiums, he noted.
“Previously that’s not something we would have done because we don’t think the size of that market – given what we’ve seen trading on other exchanges – justifies it. But if we can do it for a very limited investment, then why not react to what people are asking us to do?” he said.
“Sometimes people ask you to launch a contract and then don’t trade it – we’ve had that experience with premium contracts before – but if it costs you nothing to do, you don’t mind,” he told Metal Bulletin.
“Indeed, you don’t look silly because you moved towards a model like a number of our competitors where you’re willing to take the risk. Some contracts will work and some won’t, but you embrace that model. It’s a bit of a change in philosophy for the market, and for ourselves as well,” Chamberlain added.
According to Chamberlain, typically the LME has been overly concerned about the performance of any one individual contact, instead of being focused on the performance of its entire suite of contracts.
New contracts
Top of its list for new contracts are gold and silver options. The exchange already offers gold and silver futures contracts, having launched them in July in partnership with the World Gold Council (WGC) and financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, ICBC Standard Bank, Morgan Stanley, Natixis, OSTC and Société Générale.
“When we spoke to our partners they felt that gold and silver options were the more pressing markets for us to look at launching contracts for. We’ll be doing that first, but we also need our partners to be ready, to make markets in it,” Chamberlain said. “We’re also already talking to the key platinum group metals participants,” he added.
The LME recently hired Robin Martin, formerly managing director for market infrastructure at the WGC, as its new head of market development, a move Chamberlain said was a sign of the exchange’s commitment to the precious metals market.
The exchange is also looking at a cash-settled lithium contract, tapping into the trend towards electric vehicles and the electrification of mobility, although the lack of a dominant benchmark means the first step will be to determine a price the industry is willing to work with.
“If we simply list a contract to a price, it’s not going to get any traction unless it’s the price that everyone is using,” Chamberlain added.
The LME has put together a consortium including automotive and battery manufacturers, as well as lithium miners, and the first task it set itself was a Request for Proposal in order to understand better the pricing options for a contract and determine which will work best or the industry.
“It’s an appropriate first step to show we’ll work with the market, and hopefully the upside for us is that we can then launch a contract to that price as and when it gets traction,” Chamberlain told Metal Bulletin. There is strong industry buy-in; Chamberlain said: “It’s one of those nice times when there seems to be alignment across the value chain that hedging is a desirable outcome.”
The LME is meanwhile looking at launching a new cash-settled cobalt contract, also a key component of battery materials for electric vehicles.
Unlike lithium, there are two pricing benchmarks – the LME and Metal Bulletin.
Metal Bulletin’s cobalt low and high grade prices converged last week and have risen further since, with both assessed at $40.40-41.95 per lb on Wednesday March 14.
“Probably if you look at total volume of contracts priced, MB is the bigger one. We understand it’s a market where consumers and producers have differing views on benchmarks and it’s unlikely we’ll be converting the entire market to LME pricing – and I’m not sure that’s our role,” said Chamberlain.
“We like people using LME pricing but we have said we’ll be driven by the market and to sit here and say that you must use LME pricing is just not right. Indeed it’s inconsistent with what we’ve done on steel, using third-party benchmark providers,” Chamberlain added.
The LME plans to retain its existing physically-settled cobalt contract; “People have committed to it, have spent a lot of time on it, price off it, warehouse it. Nobody feels there’s anything fundamentally wrong with it (so it won’t be changed further) – adding the powder specification was very helpful,” he noted.
But there is work to do over conflict minerals, with a vast proportion of cobalt being produced in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where there have been allegations of child labor and appalling working conditions.
“We’re conscious of the fact a lot is happening in cobalt and our physically-settled model requires a list of brands so we’ll be looked to as the arbiter of which brands are acceptable and which aren’t. We will be coming out with some thoughts to the market on that reasonably soon,” Chamberlain said.
“We will continue to support the physically-settled contract as long as people continue to use it and continue to invest in it, but we shouldn’t be so arrogant as to say we can’t also launch a contract based on another benchmark that people felt was appropriate,” he added.
After being approached by nickel and battery materials participants to consider a nickel sulfate contract, further discussions with the sector revealed the existing nickel contract did the job and the exchange abandoned the idea. A similar situation resulted in the decision not to pursue a cobalt sulfate contract, Chamberlain said.
Alumina is under consideration – ”I don’t know whether the alumina market will fall into exchange pricing, but if it does, we want to be there” – and the exchange plans to convert the molybdenum contract to cash-settled from physically-delivered currently to revive interest.
Chamberlain said he is “very confident” about regional contracts in hot-rolled coil (HRC). “A lot of people trading our scrap and rebar contracts have told us they’d do HRC, and frankly those guys have the credibility to make that statement because they’re putting big volumes through our existing contracts,” he added.
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четверг, 15 марта 2018 г.
среда, 14 марта 2018 г.
PRICING NOTICE: Changes to daily publication of LBMA gold, silver prices
Due to a change in publication time by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) to midnight on the day of publication, the daily LBMA gold and silver prices will be published by Metal Bulletin on the following day.
The change will apply to the prices below from April 1, 2018:
Gold London Morning Daily Price $ per troy oz
Gold London Morning Daily price £ per troy oz
Gold London Afternoon Daily Price $ per troy oz
Gold London Afternoon Daily price £ per troy oz
Silver LBMA daily price cents per troy oz
Silver LBMA daily price pence per troy oz
These prices are not currently discovered as part of Metal Bulletin’s standard pricing process.
To provide feedback on this timing change, please contact Ewa Manthey by email at: pricing@metalbulletin.com. Please add the subject heading ‘FAO: Ewa Manthey, re: LBMA gold and silver prices.’
Access to the live LBMA Gold Price and the LBMA Silver Price with auction round information is available via the FastMarkets Platform or a FastMarkets Data Feed. Please email sales@fastmarkets.com if you require access to this data.
To see all Metal Bulletin’s pricing methodology and specification documents go to https://www.metalbulletin.com/prices/pricing-methodology.html
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METALS MORNING VIEW 14/03: Metals prices get some support from Chinese data
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part consolidating this morning, Wednesday March 14, although copper and lead prices are showing gains of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, with the former at $6,984 per tonne.
Volume has been average with 7,085 lots traded as of 07.06am London time.
This follows a day when most prices rebounded on Tuesday, with the complex closing up by an average of 1%, ranged between a 2.7% rise in lead prices and a 0.7% loss in tin prices – tin was the only metal not to advance.
Gold prices are slightly lower this morning at $1,325.33 per oz, while the rest of the precious metals are firmer with 0.1% gains in silver and palladium and a 0.4% rise in platinum prices. This follows a day of strength on Tuesday when the complex closed up by an average of 0.5%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange this morning, tin prices are off by 0.6%, while the rest are up an average of 0.6%, with copper prices up by 0.7% at 52,310 yuan ($8,269) per tonne. Lead, zinc and nickel prices are up by 1.2%, 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, while aluminium prices are little changed. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 0.3% at 51,420-51,680 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has fallen to 7.49, from 7.53 on Tuesday.
In other metals in China, the rout in the steel sector has paused and prices are rebounding with iron ore prices up by 2.1% at 490 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up by 0.7%, while gold and silver prices are firmer by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down by 0.31% at $64.53 per barrel and the yield on US 10-year treasuries has eased to 2.83%, as has the German 10-year bund yield at 0.61%.
Equity markets in Asia are weaker this morning with traders seemingly nervous about US President Donald Trump’s latest administration change with the firing of Rex Tillerson – does this signal he will take a stronger stance on tariffs? Nikkei (-0.87%), Kospi (-0.34%), Hang Seng (-1.326%), CSI 300 (-0.44%) and ASX 200 (-0.66%). This follows weakness in western markets on Tuesday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 0.68% at 25,007.03, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.94% at 3,397.35.
The dollar index at 89.70 is still consolidating above what could be a base formation that has built up in late-January and mid-February. The other major currencies we follow are firmer: euro (1.2392), sterling (1.3963), yen (106.53) and the Australian dollar (0.7881). The yuan is also firmer at 6.3177, while the emerging market currencies we follow are either still consolidating or are strengthening.
Economic data already out shows a pick-up in Chinese data with industrial production rising to 7.2% from 6.2%, fixed asset investment rising 7.9%, up from 7.2% previously, and retail sales were up by 9.7% after a 9.4% rise previously. Data out later includes German consumer price index (CPI), Italian retail sales, EU employment change and EU industrial production. US data includes retail sales, producer price index (PPI), business inventories and crude oil inventories. In addition, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi is speaking at 8am London time.
The pullback in base metals prices appears to have halted for now with most prices getting some lift off recent lows, no doubt helped by better Chinese data. Nickel prices are looking the strongest and the closest to challenging recent highs, while for the rest it is about whether the rebounds can now attract follow-through buying. Given the uncertainty over where trade tariffs are heading it may well be that prices struggle on the upside and need longer to consolidate.
Gold prices are treading water either side of $1,320 per oz, what is noticeable on the charts are the underlying tails on recent candlesticks, which suggest good dip-buying interest. Given the possibility of further trade friction affecting broader markets it may well be that investors get more interested in safe-havens. The other precious metals are consolidating with an upside bias.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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вторник, 13 марта 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 13/03: Precious metals prices remain on a back footing
The precious metals prices are generally weaker, led by a 0.4% decline in spot gold prices to $1,319.22 per oz, with palladium and silver prices down by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, while platinum prices are up by 0.1%. This follows a day of weakness on Monday when the complex closed down by an average of 0.5%.
The precious metals prices have been under pressure of late, they seem to be consolidating in relatively low ground now. Like the base metals, we see the pullbacks as temporary with traders adjusting to cross currents flowing through the markets – the cross currents being a more hawkish US Federal Reserve chair, uncertainty over how much contagion there will be from US tariffs and some weaker than of late economic data, especially the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data out at the start of the month.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part little changed this morning, Tuesday March 13. The exceptions are copper, where the three-month price is down by 0.4% at $6,888 per tonne, and zinc which is up by 0.6% at $3,262 per tonne.
Volume has been average with 6,532 lots traded as of 07.02am London time.
This follows a day of weakness on Monday when the base metals complex closed down with average losses of 1.1%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange this morning, zinc and nickel prices are up by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively, while the rest are weaker: aluminium (-1.8%), lead (-1.6%), tin (-0.5%) and copper (-0.3%) at 51,890 yuan ($8,197) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 0.4% at 51,270-51,520 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has firmed to 7.53, from 7.50 on Monday.
In other metals in China, the steel sector remains under pressure with iron ore prices down by 0.5% at 479 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down by 0.5%, while gold prices are little changed and silver prices are off by 0.3%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are off slightly at $64.85 per barrel and the yield on US 10-year treasuries has eased to 2.88%, as has the German 10-year bund yield at 0.63%.
Equity markets in Asia are mixed this morning: Nikkei (+0.66%), Kospi (+0.42%), Hang Seng (-0.36%), CSI 300 (-0.85%) and ASX 200 (-0.36%). This follows mixed performance in western markets on Monday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 0.62% at 25,178.61, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.26% at 3,429.48.
The dollar index at 90.02 is still consolidating above what could be a base formation that has built up in late-January and mid-February. The other major currencies we follow are also consolidating: euro (1.2332), sterling (1.3889), yen (106.86), although the Australian dollar is showing some strength (0.7878). The yuan is flat at 6.3300, while the emerging market currencies are for the most part consolidating and those that have been weaker of late seem to be attempting to strengthen again.
Economic data already out shows Japan’s tertiary industry activity fell 0.6% – it had been expected to fall 0.2%, French private payrolls climbed by 0.4%. Data out later includes Italian quarterly unemployment rate, US small business index, US consumer price index (CPI) as well as the UK’s annual budget.
Most of the base metals prices are still looking weak, led by aluminium and lead. Copper and zinc are consolidating after being weak, while nickel and tin prices are holding up relatively well. We have seen the recent prices weakness as a pause in the overall uptrends. We still see concerted global growth as being bullish for the metals, but the uncertainty over trade wars may mean consumers are in no hurry to step off the sidelines.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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понедельник, 12 марта 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 12/03: Gold prices slightly weaker this morning, consolidation returns
The precious metals prices are generally slightly weaker this morning with gold, silver and palladium prices off between 0.1% and 0.3%, while platinum prices are up by 0.1%. Gold prices were recently quoted at $1,321.90 per oz. This follows a day of gains on Friday that saw average gains of 1.1%, mainly driven by the industrial precious metals.
The dip in gold prices last week ended with a rebound on Friday and prices are now consolidating again. The fact gold prices rallied with the other metals and oil prices on Friday, supports our view that gold and the precious metals are all being seen as being part of the commodity trade, which is offering some diversification from equity-heavy portfolios.
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are once again weaker across the board this morning, Monday March 12, with prices off by an average of 0.4%. Losses are fairly tightly grouped between 0.2% and 0.7%, with the three-month copper price down by 0.4% at $6,930 per tonne.
Volume has been average with 8,181 lots traded as of 07.17am London time.
Today’s weakness follows strong rebounds last Friday, helped by the strong US employment report, after what had been a week of general weakness. Average gains on Friday were 1.8%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange this morning, aluminium prices are off by 0.8%, while the rest are firmer by an average of 1.1% – led by a 3.5% gain in nickel prices. Copper prices are up by 0.9% at 51,990 yuan ($8,211) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 1% at 51,500-51,660 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has eased to 7.50, from 7.56 on Friday.
In other metals in China, the steel sector remains under pressure with iron ore prices down by 2.6% at 479 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down by 0.5%, while gold prices are down by 0.2% and silver prices are up by 0.1%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are off by 0.36% at $65.31 per barrel – this after a rally on Friday. The yield on US 10-year treasuries has jumped to 2.91%, again helped by the strong US employment data on Friday, while the German 10-year bund yield has also firmed to 0.66%.
Equity markets in Asia are rebounding this morning: Nikkei (+1.65%), Hang Seng (+1.89%), CSI 300 (+0.46%), ASX 200 (+0.55%) and the Kospi (+1.08%). This follows accelerated gains in western markets on Friday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 1.77% at 25,335.74, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.21% at 3,420.54.
The dollar index at 89.92 is giving back the limited gains it made on Friday. Considering the better US data on Friday and the firmer treasury yields it is surprising the dollar is not firmer – suggesting concerns about a trade war linger. The major currencies are firmer: Euro (1.2336), sterling (1.3871), yen (106.60) and Australian dollar (0.7878). The yuan is firmer too at 6.3230, while the emerging market currencies we follow that have been weaker of late seem to be attempting to strengthen again. The others remain in consolidation mode.
The economic agenda is light today – data out already shows Japan’s machine tool orders climb 39.5%, down from the previous reading of 48.8%, but orders have been rising since January 2017. Later there is data on the US Federal budget balance and there is a Eurogroup meeting.
Friday’s rebound in the base metals prices halted the recent slide, but with prices lower this morning we will need to see if bargain hunting comes in again today. The early indications are not that great, although SHFE prices were firmer, as are equities and the dollar has not reacted that positively to Friday’s better US data, so there may be a chance for prices to catch a tailwind. We have seen the recent prices weakness as a pause in the overall uptrends, we still see concerted global growth as being bullish for the metals, but the uncertainty over trade wars may mean consumers are in no hurry to step off the sidelines.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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воскресенье, 11 марта 2018 г.
пятница, 9 марта 2018 г.
Metals morning view: Gold and silver prices down as US and N Korea agree to hold summit
Gold and silver are down by 0.2% this morning, with gold prices at $1,318.15 per oz, while platinum prices are little changed and palladium prices are off by 0.1%. Gold prices are weaker following the news that the United States and North Korea have agreed to hold a summit.
On Thursday, gold and silver prices were off by an average of 0.2%, platinum was little changed, while palladium prices rose by 0.4%.
Gold prices are weaker but they are holding within their recent range. With the yen and gold prices on a back footing it does look as though the prospect of a North Korean/US summit is seeing some reduction is haven interest, although given risk-off in other markets we would not be surprised if haven buying against further market corrections picked up.
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part weaker this morning, Friday March 9. The exception is nickel, where prices are up by 0.2%, while the rest are lower: Zinc (-1%), tin (-0.9%), aluminium (-0.5%), lead (-0.3%) and copper prices are off by 0.5% at $6,792 per tonne.
Volume has been high with 13,023 lots traded as of 07.10am London time – high volume and weak prices does not bode well.
Today’s weakness follows a mixed performance on Thursday when copper, nickel, zinc and lead fell by an average of 1.7%, while aluminium and tin were up by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange this morning, tin prices are up by 0.3%, the rest are weaker by an average of 1.5%, led by a 2.7% drop in zinc prices – copper prices are off by 1.6% at 51,360 yuan ($8,107) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are off by 1.3% at 50,880-51,220 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has firmed to 7.56, from 7.52 on Thursday.
In other metals in China, the steel sector is down heavily with iron ore prices down by 5.2% at 483.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down by 3.9%, while gold prices and silver prices are down by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are off by 0.07% at $63.81 per barrel, while the yield on US 10-year treasuries has eased to 2.87%, while the German 10-year bund yield has also eased to 0.64%.
Equity markets in Asia are rebounding this morning on the back of hope that something positive might come of the North Korea/US summit: Nikkei (+0.47%), Hang Seng (+0.94%), CSI 300 (+0.77%), ASX 200 (+0.34%) and the Kospi (+1.08%). This follows a steadier tone in western markets on Thursday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.38% at 24,895.21, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 1.06% at 3,413.28.
The dollar index is on the rise again, it was recently quoted at 90.17, which suggests the potential positives from any agreement with North Korea, outweighs the negatives of a potential trade war. The firmer dollar will be adding weight to an already weak metals complex. In contrast to the firmer dollar, the major currencies are weaker: euro (1.2316), sterling (1.3814), yen (106.66) and Australian dollar (0.7797). The yuan is slightly weaker at 6.3342, while the emerging market currencies we follow are mixed.
The economic agenda is busy today, especially as the US employment report is due this afternoon. Data out already today includes China’s new loans, consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) and Germany’s industrial production and trade balance.
The main surprise has been China’s CPI that climbed 2.9% in February, from 1.5% in February last year, while its PPI fell to 3.7% from 4.3% over the same period. German industrial production fell 0.1%, it had been expected to climb 0.6%, but it was better than the previous reading of a 0.5% decline.
Data out later includes French government budget, French and UK industrial production, UK manufacturing production, UK construction output , UK goods trade balance and a gross domestic product (GDP) estimate. In addition to the US employment report, there is also data on wholesale inventories.
The base metals remain under pressure and so far the bargain hunting seems in no hurry to emerge in force. Given uncertainty over trade wars, it is not surprising risk is being taken off the table. As we have said of late, we expect these headwinds will pass and the underlying concerted global growth to underpin commodity prices, but sentiment may be weak for a while as these uncertainties prevail.
As such, we would let any weakness run its course but be on the lookout for buying opportunities once the winds start to change direction.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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четверг, 8 марта 2018 г.
Metals morning view: Precious metals prices are up following pick-up in haven interest
Precious metals prices are up across the board this morning, with gains ranged between 0.3% and 0.5% – spot gold prices are up by 0.3% at $1,328.05 per oz. This follows losses of between 1.1% and 1.8% yesterday.
Gold prices are holding up well and the uncertainty mentioned above is likely to prompt a pick-up in haven interest, this is also underpinning silver prices, while the more industrial platinum group metals are suffering in line with the base metals.
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are split into two camps this morning, Thursday March 8, with copper ($6,924 per tonne), nickel, zinc and tin prices all down by an average of 0.6%, while aluminium and lead prices are up by an average of 0.3%.
Volume has been average with 7,370 lots traded as of 06.43am London time.
This follows a day of weakness on Wednesday when prices were down by an average of 1.1%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange this morning, the base metals are weaker, with prices down by an average of 1%. Nickel leads the decline with a 1.8% drop, while copper prices are down by 1.1% at 52,080 yuan ($8,235) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are off by 0.5% at 51,690-51,810 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has eased to 7.52, from 7.53 on Wednesday.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 2.8% at 505.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down by 2.6%, while gold prices and silver prices are down by 0.3% and 0.6% respectively.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are off by 0.27% at $64.36 per barrel, while the yield on US 10-year treasuries has edged up to 2.88%, while the German 10-year bund yield has edged up to 0.67%.
Equity markets in Asia are rebounding this morning: Nikkei (+0.54%), Hang Seng (+1.43%), CSI 300 (+0.79%), ASX 200 (+0.69%) and the Kospi (+1.30%). This follows a mixed performance in western markets on Wednesday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 0.33% at 24,801.36, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.58% at 3,377.36. Strong Chinese exports suggest a robust global growth ex-China.
The dollar index was recently quoted at 89.62, little changed from this time yesterday when it was 89.53. With the dollar consolidating, so are the euro (1.2400), sterling (1.3893), yen (105.94) and Australian dollar (0.7826). The yuan is slightly weaker at 6.3294. In the emerging market currencies we follow, we are watching the continued weakness in the Indonesian rupiah that has weakened to 13,772 from 13,275 at the start of February – the weakness may well signal some early concern about the direction of US interest rates and the burden they could become on emerging market debt.
Economic data out already today has seen data on UK house prices, China’s trade balance, where the surplus expanded as exports soared, while the Lunar New Year holiday dented imports, Japan’s economy watchers sentiment eased to 48.6 from 49.9 and German factory orders dropped 3.9%, after a prior 3% gain. Data out later includes US Challenger job cuts, the European Central Bank rate decision and press conference, US initial jobless claims and natural gas storage data.
The base metals remain under pressure with the correction in prices still underway, which we see is being driven by uncertainty over the combination of whether a trade war is about to kick-off, a more hawkish US Federal Reserve, nervous equity markets and some disappointing manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for February.
We expect these headwinds will pass and the underlying concerted global growth to underpin commodity prices, but sentiment may be weak for a while as these uncertainties prevail. As such, we would let any weakness run its course but be on the lookout for buying opportunities once the winds start to change direction.
We wait to see if the mood from Metal Bulletin’s International Copper conference in Madrid provides direction to prices.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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среда, 7 марта 2018 г.
Metals morning view: Gold prices weaker following a day of strength on Tuesday
Precious metals prices are also weaker with gold prices off by 0.4% ($1,333.83 per oz), silver off by 0.6% ($16.68/oz), platinum by off 0.2% ($965.20 per oz) and palladium off slightly at $982.90 per oz. This follows a general day of strength on Tuesday that saw the complex close up by an average of 1.1%, led by a 2.3% rise in platinum prices.
Gold prices are holding up well and the uncertainty mentioned above is likely to prompt a pick-up in haven interest, while the other more industrial precious metals may well suffer in line with the base metals.
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are down across the board by an average of 0.3% this morning, Wednesday March 7. Nickel leads the decline with a 0.9% drop to $13,520 per tonne, while the rest are off between less than 0.1% and 0.3%, with three-month copper prices at $6,977 per tonne.
Volume has been average with 6,272 lots traded as of 06.48am London time.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange this morning, metals prices are mixed – aluminium and tin prices are down by 0.9% and 0.5% respectively, zinc prices are little changed, lead and nickel prices are up by 0.5% and copper prices are up 0.4% at 52,520 yuan ($8,296) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 0.3% at 51,900-52,070 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has eased to 7.53, from 7.58 on Tuesday.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 0.2% at 519 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down by 1%, while gold prices and silver prices are up 0.5% and 0.7% respectively.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are off by 0.41% at $65.21 per barrel, while the yield on US 10-year treasuries has fallen to 2.86%, while the German 10-year bund yield has edged up to 0.66%.
Equity markets in Asia are weaker this morning on the back of a pick-up in concerns over a trade war, which has escalated with the European Union proposing tariffs on some US goods, and on the resignation of US President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser Gary Cohn: Nikkei (-0.77%), Hang Seng (-1.06%), CSI 300 (-0.77%), ASX 200 (-1.01%) and the Kospi (-0.40%). This follows volatility in western markets on Tuesday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.04% at 24,884.12, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.08% at 3,357.86 – but since the closes, pre-market indications suggest the Dow is down by 1.4%.
The dollar index has fallen back to 89.53 as the potential for trade wars and Cohn’s resignation weigh on sentiment. The euro (1.2418), yen (105.62) and Australian dollar (0.7803) are firmer on the back of the weaker dollar, while sterling is flat (1.3886). The yuan is also stronger at 6.3228, while the other emerging market currencies we follow remain mixed.
Economic data out today includes Japan’s leading indicators that came in at 104.8%, which was down from the prior reading of 107.4%. Data out later includes France’s trade balance, UK house price index (HPI), EU revised gross domestic product (GDP), along with US releases including ADP non-farm employment change, revised non-farm productivity and unit labor costs, trade balance, crude oil inventories, the beige book and consumer credit. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee members William Dudley and Raphael Bostic are speaking.
Most of the base metals remain on a back footing this morning and that seems to be a result of the increased uncertainty over the combination of whether a trade war is about to kick-off, a more hawkish US Federal Reserve, nervous equity markets and some disappointing manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for February. We expect these headwinds will pass and the underlying concerted global growth to underpin commodity prices, but sentiment may be weak for a while as these uncertainties prevail. As such, we would let any weakness run its course but be on the lookout for buying opportunities once the winds start to change direction.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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вторник, 6 марта 2018 г.
Metals morning view: Precious metal prices are slightly firmer
Precious metals prices are little changed to slightly firmer with the complex up by an average of 0.1%, with spot gold prices at $1,321.23 per oz.
Gold prices are holding up well, but the more industrial precious metals are suffering in line with the weaker tone in the base metals, where sentiment has become less bullish in recent weeks on the back of the more hawkish US Federal Reserve speak and weaker tone in broader markets. Concern about broader markets may well underpin gold prices.
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are mixed this morning, Tuesday March 6, with lead, zinc and tin prices down by an average of 0.5%, while copper, aluminium and nickel prices are up by an average of 0.3%.
Volume has been average with 7,431 lots traded as of 07.16am London time.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, metals prices are mirroring the performance of those on the LME. Lead, zinc and tin prices are off by an average of 1.2%, led by a 2.2% fall in zinc prices, while copper, aluminium and nickel prices are up by an average of 0.6% with copper prices at 52,660 yuan ($8,303) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 0.1% at 51,780-51,900 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has edged up to 7.58 from 7.53 on Monday.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 1.7% at 520.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down by 0.1%, while gold prices are little changed and silver prices are down by 0.2%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up by 0.09% at $65.62 per barrel, while the yield on US 10-year treasuries has rebounded to 2.88%, as has the German 10-year bund yield that was recently quoted at 0.65%.
Equity markets in Asia are stronger this morning, suggesting investors are putting the potential for trade wars behind them, at least until more news emerges: Nikkei (+1.76%), Hang Seng (+2.24%), CSI 300 (+1.21%), ASX 200 (+1.14%) and the Kospi (-1.13%). This follows rebounds in western markets on Monday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 1.37% at 24,874.76, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.92% at 3,355.32.
The dollar index continues to consolidate, it was recently quoted at 90.00, this after peaking on Thursday at 90.94. The pullback in the dollar has underpinned a firmer euro (1.2342), while sterling is consolidating (1.3833), as are the Australian dollar (0.7764) and yen (106.12). The yuan is flat at 6.3427, while the other emerging market currencies we follow are mixed.
Economic data out today includes UK’s BRC retail sales monitor which climbed 0.6%, unchanged from the previous reading. Later there is data on EU retail purchasing managers’ index, US factory orders and IBD/TIPP economic optimism. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee members William Dudley, Lael Brainard and UK Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Haldane are speaking.
The rise in zinc stocks on the LME sent jitters through the zinc market and prices corrected accordingly. It is surprising so much stock had been held off market for so long given the price gains in recent quarters – the market will now remain nervous to see how much more is out there and whether it is released back to the market.
That said, LME zinc stocks were getting very low, so the stock inflow will provide more liquidity in the LME system. We do not think the stock inflow changes the current fundamental outlook, which we expect to remain tight – a condition we see across all the base metals. Proof, however, will be in how well the metals prices are supported. With most of the metals recently capped it does look as though consumers have not felt the need to chase prices higher, but we do expect them to be keen bargain hunters.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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понедельник, 5 марта 2018 г.
воскресенье, 4 марта 2018 г.
пятница, 2 марта 2018 г.
четверг, 1 марта 2018 г.
Metals morning view: Precious metals prices are mixed, albeit on a back footing
Precious metals prices are mixed this morning with gold, silver and platinum prices buy off around 0.2%, while palladium prices are up by 0.4%. This follows a similar performance on Wednesday that saw palladium unchanged, while the rest were down between 0.1% and 0.4%.
We are not surprised by gold’s reaction to the latest Federal Reserve speak and the stronger dollar and further strength in the dollar could keep downward pressure on gold prices. Although given the possibility of equity and bond markets becoming more jittery, gold may start to attract more haven buying – so we would be on the lookout for that.
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part consolidating after recent weakness, the exceptions are aluminium prices that are up by 0.7% at $2,147 per tonne and lead prices that are down by 0.5% at $2,490 per tonne. The rest are little changed, with copper prices recently quoted at $6,943 per tonne.
Volume has been average with 8,708 lots traded as of 07.12 am London time.
This follows a day of general weakness on Wednesday that saw copper, zinc and lead fall between 2.2% and 2.9%, with nickel prices off by 1.4%, while aluminium and tin were little changed.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the base metals are for the most part weaker, led by a 1.3% drop in lead prices and a 0.9% fall in copper prices to 52,290 yuan ($8,261) per tonne. Tin prices are down by 0.6% and nickel and zinc prices are little changed, while aluminium prices buck the trend with a 0.6% gain. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are off by 0.7% at 51,940-52,080 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has edged out to 7.53, from 7.51 on Wednesday.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are up by 0.3% at 544.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up by 0.5%, while gold and silver prices are off by around 0.5%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are firmer at $64.84 per barrel, while the yield on US 10-year treasuries has eased to 2.86%, as has the German 10-year bund yield at 0.66%.
Equity markets in Asia are mixed this morning: Nikkei (-1.56%), Hang Seng (+0.12%), CSI 300 (+0.63%), ASX 200 (-0.71%) and the Kospi is closed. This follows weakness in western markets on Wednesday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 1.5% at 25,029.20, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.55% at 3,438.96.
The dollar index’s rebound has cleared the high from February 9 at 90.57, the index was recently quoted at 90.63, this shows a double bottom in place on the chart and suggests the dollar has further to rise. A more hawkish US Federal Reserve may well underpin that. The dollar’s firmness is keeping the euro (1.2207) capped, is weighing on sterling (1.3758) and the Australian dollar (0.7801), but the yen is firmer (106.80). The yuan has weakened too, moving to 6.3394 and the emerging market currencies we follow are also weaker.
It is a heavy day on the economic front – data already out shows Japan’s final manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) edge up to 54.1 from 54.0, as did China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI that came in at 51.6 from 51.5, but Japan’s consumer confidence slipped to 44.3 from 44.7. UK house prices dropped 0.3%, having previously climbed 0.8%. Data out later includes final readings on manufacturing PMI out across Europe, with additional data on Italian and EU unemployment, UK lending as well US data including personal income, spending and prices, initial jobless claims, manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing PMI, construction spending, natural gas storage and total vehicle sales. In addition Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is speaking.
Base metals prices have been under pressure; tin and nickel prices are holding up relatively well, but long liquidation seems to be weighing on the others. We should now get an update on how bullish underlying support is by seeing how far prices dip and how long it is before they rebound. With most of the metals recently capped it does look as though consumers have not felt the need to chase prices higher, but we do expect them to be keen bargain hunters.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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