понедельник, 31 июля 2017 г.
Gold prices underpinned by increased geopolitical tension and weak dollar
FastMarkets
Precious metals are split this morning, Monday July 31, with the PGMs up either side of 0.6%, while gold and silver prices are little changed with gold prices off 0.1% at $1,268.04 per oz. This follows a bullish day on Friday when the complex was fairly closely grouped with prices up an average of 0.8%.
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are looking stronger this morning with gains across the complex. Prices are up by an average of 0.6%; zinc leads the advance with a 1% rally to $2,813 per tonne, tin and copper follow with 0.7% gains, with the latter at $6,388 per tonne, it having once again been up as high as $6,400.
Volume has been strong with 9,296 lots traded as of 07:10 BST. This comes after a weaker performance on Friday when the market saw a mixture of consolidation and profit-taking.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), most of the base metals are firmer with lead and nickel prices up either side of 1.7%, copper prices are up 08% at 50,420 yuan ($7,500) per tonne, zinc prices are up 0.2% and tin prices are up 0.1%, while aluminium bucks the trend with a 0.5% fall. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.8% at 50,030-50,350 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has weakened to 7.89.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up a massive 8% at 570 yuan per tonne on the back of stronger construction data. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 4.6%, while gold and silver prices are up 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.3% at $52.39 per barrel and the yield on US ten-year treasuries is weaker at 2.28% and the German ten-year bund yield is at 0.54%.
Equities were broadly weaker on Friday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.7% but the Dow closed up 0.2%, although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite closed off 0.1%. Asian markets are generally firmer, with the Hang Seng up 1%, the CSI 300 is up 0.4%, the ASX 200 is up 0.3% and the Kospi is up 0.1%, while the Nikkei is off 0.2% weighed down by a firmer yen.
The dollar index is at 93.49, it set a fresh low for the year at 93.15 on July 27. The euro at 1.1726 is consolidating recent gains, as is the Australian dollar at 0.7980, sterling is firm at 1.3115, as is the yen at 110.67. The yuan at 6.7223 is climbing; it is the strongest it has been since October 2016, while most of the other emerging currencies we follow are little changed.
The economic agenda is busy – Chinese data already out showed some weaker data with official manufacturing PMI dropping to 51.4 from 51.7 and non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.5 from 54.9. Japan’s industrial production climbed 1.6% and housing starts rose 1.7%, both better than expected, as was the case with Germany’s retail sales that climbed 1.1%. Later there is data on Italian and EU unemployment, UK lending, EU and Italian CPI, Chicago PMI and US pending home sales.
Despite weaker than expected Chinese PMI data, the base metals are performing strongly with prices seeing some follow-through buying after the stronger tone seen last week. With iron ore prices jumping 8% this morning in China, it does look as though commodities are in demand again. Copper, nickel and tin continue to lead the advance, lead and zinc are well placed to break higher, while aluminium’s brakes are still on. We have generally been quietly bullish for the metals – the danger is that prices may run ahead of the fundamentals again but for now there is upward momentum.
Gold prices have done well, especially with strong equity markets but with North Korea rattling the world’s cage, especially the USA’s and with the diplomatic spat between the USA and Russia, combined with the weaker dollar, we are not surprised that gold prices are strengthening and that may continue as it seems to have some momentum. Silver is following gold’s lead, palladium is firmer, while platinum struggling to keep up.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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воскресенье, 30 июля 2017 г.
суббота, 29 июля 2017 г.
пятница, 28 июля 2017 г.
Gold prices consolidate but continue to hold up well
FastMarkets
Precious metals are split this morning, Friday July 28, with platinum prices up 0.3% at $925.1 per oz, while the rest are weaker with gold prices off 0.1% at $1,257.91 per oz and silver and palladium off 0.3%. On Thursday palladium closed up 1% at $875 per oz, while the other precious metals were weaker with platinum prices off 0.6% and gold and silver prices down 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.
Base metals are consolidating recent gains with prices off by 0.4% on average this morning. Tin leads the decline with a 0.7% price fall to $20,565 per tonne, followed by copper prices that are off 0.6% at $6,284 per tonne and nickel prices that are down 0.5%, while the rest are off around 0.2%.
Volume has been average with 5,984 lots traded as of 06:08 BST. This comes after a mixed performance on Thursday when nickel and tin prices rallied 1.8%, while the rest consolidated – copper prices were up 0.2%, while the others were off between 0.1% and 0.2%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the base metals are split into two camps with copper, zinc and aluminium prices weaker, with September copper off 0.7% at 49,800 yuan ($7,379) per tonne while lead, zinc and nickel prices are all up 0.3%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.5% at 49,750-49,950 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has weakened to 7.92.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 0.9% at 526.50 yuan per tonne and on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are off 0.3%, but gold and silver prices are up 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are off 0.5% but prices remain high at $51.36 per barrel supported by falling inventories and talk of some OPEC members limiting exports. The yield on US ten-year treasuries is at 2.30% and the German ten-year bund yield is at 0.52%.
Equities were generally bullish on Thursday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.1% and the Dow closed up 0.4% at 21796.55, having set a fresh record earlier in the day, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite closed off 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Asian markets are mixed, the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down 0.6%, the ASX 200 is off 1.5% and the Kospi is off 1.6%, while the CSI 300 is up 0.2%. The tech sell-off in the USA seems to be rattling Asian markets this morning.
The dollar index is at 93.80, it set a fresh low for the year at 93.15 on Thursday, before better US data gave it some lift. The euro at 1.1693 is consolidating recent gains, as is the Australian dollar at 0.7971, sterling is firm at 1.3083, as is the yen at 110.97. The yuan at 6.7476 is consolidating recent strength and most of the other emerging currencies we follow are little changed, although the rupee is consolidating after yesterday’s strength.
The economic agenda is busy – a host of Japanese data already out generally looks encouraging, see table below. French GDP came in at 0.5%, later there CPI data out across parts of Europe, plus data on French consumer spending. US data includes advanced GDP, GDP price index, employment cost index and revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee member Neel Kashkari is also speaking.
Copper, nickel and tin have led the price advances this week, with the others showing some gains at stages during the week but they have struggled to hold on to these gains. Profit-taking ahead of the weekend seems to be underway this morning as Asian trading rolls into European trading. Overhead tails on aluminium, lead and zinc suggests scale-up selling as prices have got back into high ground, while today’s pullbacks in copper, nickel and tin look more like profit-taking and consolidation. We would now expect volatile trading in those that have outperformed as traders adjust to the higher price levels. We have generally been quietly bullish for the metals – the danger is that prices may have run ahead of the fundamentals again.
Gold prices have done well, especially with equity markets setting fresh highs, but the weaker dollar of late has no doubt helped fuel the rally and it may be that as equities are setting fresh highs, more investors are expecting a correction so may be putting more into havens. Silver has been following gold, platinum prices have struggled to follow gold and palladium is still consolidating after the strong run in May/June. For now we expect the dollar to be the main driver in gold prices.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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четверг, 27 июля 2017 г.
среда, 26 июля 2017 г.
вторник, 25 июля 2017 г.
Gold’s rebound runs into resistance
FastMarkets
Gold and silver prices are little changed this morning, Tuesday July 25, with spot gold prices at $1,255.60 per oz and silver at $16.46 per oz, while the PGMs are looking stronger with gains of 0.6%. This comes after a quiet day on Monday for bullion, while platinum prices dropped 0.5% and palladium prices gained 0.7%.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are up by an average of 0.5% this morning. Tin is once again bucking the trend with prices off 0.3% at $20,190 per tonne, while the rest have gains of between 0.3% for aluminium and 0.9% for nickel and copper, with the latter at $6,088 per tonne basis three months.
Volume has been high with 10,533 lots traded as of 06:35 BST – the combination of high volume and prices gains bodes well. This comes after a bullish day on Monday when the base metals complex closed up an average of 0.8%, with aluminium the only metal to close weaker with a 0.2% dip to $1,912.50 per tonne.
Metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are up across the board with gains averaging 1.1%, led by a 2.6% rise in nickel prices, with zinc prices up 1.2% and copper prices up 1.1% at 48,440 yuan ($7,176) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 1.3% at 48,060-48,360 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weaker at 7.96.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 3.3% at 527 yuan per tonne and on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 1.8%, but gold and silver prices are off 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.5% at $48.88 per barrel, the yield on US ten-year treasuries is steady at 2.25% and the German ten-year bund yield has eased to 0.50%.
Equities were mixed on Monday with the Euro Stoxx 50 little changed and the Dow closing off 0.3% at 21,513.178. Asian markets are similarly mixed, the ASX 200 is up 0.7%, the Nikkei and Hang Seng are little changed and the CSI 300 and Kospi are off 0.5%.
The dollar index continues to fall, it was recently quoted at 93.82, the euro is strong at 1.1665, sterling is firm at 1.3039, the yen is strong at 110.89 and the Australian dollar is stronger too at 0.7943. The yuan is also stronger at 6.7481 and the other emerging currencies we follow are little changed.
On the economic agenda today, German import prices dropped 1.1%, which was worse than the 0.7% decline expected, later there is data out of German Ifo business climate, UK CBI industrial order expectations, with US data including house prices, consumer confidence and Richmond manufacturing index. In addition, UK’s Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Haldane is speaking.
The base metals are looking stronger and the run-up in good volume suggests a change in sentiment, especially as this is happening during the normally slower summer months. The second quarter was quiet when seasonally it is a busier time, so maybe we are witnessing a delayed busier time now, which is also being helped by the weaker dollar.
Gold’s rebound has found new energy on the combination of the weaker dollar, which we think stems from the weak political scene in Washington and from the less hawkish US Federal Reserve stance. Silver and the PGM prices are following gold’s lead.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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понедельник, 24 июля 2017 г.
воскресенье, 23 июля 2017 г.
суббота, 22 июля 2017 г.
пятница, 21 июля 2017 г.
Gold prices find new energy
FastMarkets
Gold and the rest of the precious metals are up by an average of 0.3% this morning, Friday July 21, with spot gold prices at $1,246.44 per oz, a weaker dollar and continued choppy political waters in Washington providing support. This follows a generally firmer day on Thursday that saw platinum prices rise 0.5%, gold and silver prices close up 0.2%, while palladium dropped 1.1%
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are up by an average of 0.5% this morning. Tin is bucking the trend with prices off 0.1% at $20,090 per tonne, while the rest have gains of between 0.4% for aluminium and 0.7% for zinc, with three-month copper prices up 0.6% at $6,009 per tonne. Copper seems to be grinding away at overhead supply.
Volume has been average with 6,334 lots traded as of 07:22 BST.
This comes after a day of consolidation on Thursday when copper, lead and tin closed slightly higher, aluminium and zinc closed off around 0.3% and nickel dropped 1.5% to $9,510 per tonne.
Metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are quite mixed this morning with nickel and tin prices down around 1% and aluminium prices off 0.2%, while lead and zinc are up 0.2% and copper prices are up 0.4% at 47,940 yuan ($7,087) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.1% at 47,600-47,750 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weaker at 7.99.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have broken their run on the upside with a 1% dip to 520 yuan per tonne and on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down 1.6%, but gold and silver prices are up around 0.5%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.2% at $49.36 per barrel, the yield on US ten-year treasuries has eased to 2.25% and the German ten-year bund yield has eased to 0.52% – both suggesting a less hawkish monetary policy environment.
Equities eased on Thursday, but not by much with the Euro Stoxx 50 little changed and the Dow closed off 0.1% at 21,611.78 – the all-time high being 21,681.53. Asian markets are weaker, led by a 0.7% decline in the ASX 200, the CSI 300 is off 0.4%, while the rest we follow are off between 0.1% and 0.2%.
The dollar index continues to fall, at 94.00 it has set a fresh low, these levels were last seen in June 2016. Conversely, the euro is racing higher, it was recently quoted at 1.1664, the yen is firmer at 111.75, the weaker tone in sterling this week has halted today as the pound (1.2992) reacts to the weaker dollar, while the Australian dollar at 0.7902 is correcting after the surge seen on Tuesday. The yuan is also retreating, it was recently quoted at 6.7635 and amongst the other emerging currencies we follow the real and peso are holding on to recent gains, while the rest are fairly flat.
The economic agenda is very light with UK public sector net borrowing and Baker Hughes US oil rig count.
Copper and tin prices seem to be attempting to grind higher through overhead supply, while the scale-up selling in lead, zinc and nickel appears to have petered out this morning, although it is still early, and aluminium prices are consolidating below resistance. All the metals generally look well placed to extend gains but overhead supply may mean they struggle to do so, although the weaker dollar should provide some support.
Gold’s rebound has found new energy on the combination of the weaker dollar, which we think stems from the weak political scene in Washington and from the less hawkish US Federal Reserve stance. Silver prices are following gold’s lead, while the PGMs continue to struggle.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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четверг, 20 июля 2017 г.
Gold’s price rebound runs out of steam
FastMarkets
Gold and silver prices are off around 0.3% this morning, with spot gold prices at $1,238.46 per oz, while the PGMs are little changed. This follows a day of consolidation in bullion prices on Wednesday, while the PGMs closed off around 0.8%. The pause in the rebounds in precious metals coincides with a halt in the dollar’s slide.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are up by an average of 0.4% this morning, Thursday July 20, with gains fairly tightly bunched between 0.2% for zinc and tin and 0.7% for lead. Three-month copper prices are up 0.3% at $5,983 per tonne – volume has been below average at 4,300 lots as of 06:09 BST.
This comes after a down day on Wednesday when despite some early strength, prices went on to close down an average of 1%, led by a 2.6% drop in lead prices.
Metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) remain on divergent paths, with aluminium prices up 0.6%, copper prices up 0.1% at 47,850 yuan ($7,073) per tonne and tin prices little changed. The other metals are lower, led by a 1% drop in lead prices, with zinc prices off 0.6%, nickel prices down 0.2% while tin prices are little changed. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.1% at 47,540-47,690 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has firmed to 8.0.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange continue their rise with a 0.9% gain to 532 yuan per tonne, but on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down 0.8% and gold and silver prices are little changed.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.2% at $49.65 per barrel, boosted by a bigger than expected drawdown in inventories. The yield on US ten-year treasuries has eased to 2.26% and the German ten-year bund yield has eased to 0.54%. The Bank of Japan kept its policy stance unchanged but cuts its inflation forecast and pushed out the date for when it expects inflation to hit its 2% target – this suggesting easy monetary policy will be around for longer. They were, however, more upbeat on gross domestic product.
Equities were upbeat on Wednesday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.6%, the Dow closed up 0.3% at 21,640 and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite set fresh highs. Asia has followed suit this morning, with the Nikkei and ASX 200 up 0.6%, the Kospi up 0.4%, Hang Seng up 0.3% and the CSI 300 up 0.1%.
The dollar index at 94.92 remains weak, but it is holding above Tuesday’s low of 94.48 – a stalemate in Washington politics combined with weak US inflation data has reduced the chances of another US rate rise this year and that has weighed on treasury yields and the dollar. The halt in the dollar’s slide, however, is leading to some consolidation in other currencies with the euro at 1.1505, the yen at 112.13, the Australian dollar at 0.7927, after a peak earlier this morning of 0.7986, while sterling is at 1.3024. The yuan is also retreating, it was recently quoted at 6.7651 and the other emerging currencies have turned away from highs too.
The economic agenda is busy today – Japan’s trade data showed continued growth in exports and imports, which bodes well for global growth. Japan’s all industries activity dropped 0.9% in May but that was after a 2.3% surge in April. The focus today will be on the European Central Bank (ECB) press conference at 1:30 pm BST, but ahead of that there is a Bank of Japan press conference and data on German producer price index (PPI), EU current account, UK retail sales and the ECB rate decision. Data out in the USA includes initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, leading indicators and natural gas storage.
The higher base metals prices are running into supply, no doubt a combination of profit-taking, pricing and forward selling. Zinc and lead seem to be attracting the most selling, while the others are holding up better. Strong equity markets, some good economic data and a weaker dollar, bode well for metals prices, but there is a danger that something (disappointment over China/USA trade talks, a stalemate in Washington politics, etc.) could prompt a correction in equities that could lead to risk-off across markets. However, in the absence of that we remain quietly bullish for metals prices. The ECB press conference could trigger some volatility.
Gold’s rebound has run out of steam, the halt in the dollar’s slide is proving a headwind. We have not been expecting much from the precious metals camp in recent days and in the absence of a pick-up in geopolitical tensions this may remain the case. Although, again, we would be braced for some currency volatility during the ECB press conference, which would likely impact gold prices too.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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среда, 19 июля 2017 г.
Gold prices face cross-currents
FastMarkets
Gold and the other precious metals are unchanged to slightly weaker this morning, Wednesday July 19, with spot silver prices down 0.2% at $16.237 per oz, gold and platinum prices are off 0.1% at $1,241.13 and $924.30 per oz, respectively and palladium prices are little changed at $863.1 per oz. This was after a stronger performance on Tuesday when the complex closed up with gains between 0.8% and 1.1% – driven by a weaker dollar and falling bond yields.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part weaker this morning. Tin is the exception with a 0.5% gain to $20,110 per tonne, while the rest are down between 0.1% for copper at $5,997 per tonne and 0.4% for nickel and lead prices.
Volume has been light at 3,196 lots as of 05:59 BST – this comes after a quite divergent performance on Tuesday when aluminium and nickel were up around 1%, tin prices were up 0.5%, while lead and zinc were down 1.1% and copper was little changed.
Metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are also on divergent paths this morning, where lead prices are off 1.4%, zinc prices are down 1.1%, aluminium and copper prices are off 0.2% with the latter at 47,730 yuan ($7,062) per tonne, while nickel prices are up 0.1% and tin prices are up 1.4%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.3% at 47,500-47,650 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has eased to 7.96.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 3.9% at 533 yuan per tonne, this after a 5.5% gain on Tuesday. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 1.1% and gold and silver prices are little changed.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are little changed at $48.67 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has eased to 2.27%, while the German ten-year bund yield is weaker at 0.55%. The retreat in hawkish central banks’ stances is leading to easier bond yields and that is undermining the dollar the most as the US Federal Reserve had been the main hawkish central bank.
Headline equities were largely weaker on Tuesday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 1.1%, the Dow closed off 0.3% at 21,574.73, while the Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.5% and set a record high. Asia this morning is stronger across the board with the CSI 300 up 1.1%, the ASX 200 is up 0.8%, the Hang Seng is up 0.5%, while the Kospi and Nikkei are little changed – the latter due to the stronger yen.
The dollar index at 94.80 is weak, but it is holding above yesterday’s low of 94.48 – stalemate in Washington politics combined with weak US inflation data has reduced the chances of another US rate rise this year and that is weighing on treasury yields and the dollar. Conversely, other currencies are stronger with the euro at 1.1533, the yen at 112.17, the Australian dollar at 0.7928, although weak UK inflation data has reduced the bullish tone in sterling that is at 1.3037. The yuan remains strong at 6.7571, the real at 3.1528 is strengthening, as are the peso at 17.4600 and the rand at 12.9143, while the other emerging currencies are flat-to-firmer.
The economic agenda is focused on the USA with housing starts, building permits and crude oil inventories.
Better data out of China of late is driving the iron ore price rebound, along with the speculative wave behind it. But, as a barometer it suggests confidence in China’s economy is improving that should be good for the outlook for base metals too. Copper, aluminium, lead and zinc prices are not too far below former higher ground and that seems to be attracting forward selling and profit-taking. As such, this supply will need to be absorbed if the rebounds are to extend and for now prices do seem capped by this selling. We do, however, expect dips to be well supported and we remain quietly bullish as it now appears that there is more concerted growth around the world.
Gold prices are benefitting from the weaker dollar and lower bond yields will help reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, but countering that, buoyant equities are a headwind for gold. In addition, the current lull in geopolitical tensions is not doing gold any favours. We are not expecting much from the precious metals camp in the short term, but we expect dips to remain supported.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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вторник, 18 июля 2017 г.
Gold prices firmer as dollar slides
FastMarkets
Gold and the other precious metals are firmer this morning, Tuesday July 18, with prices up an average of 0.4%, led by a 0.6% rebound in palladium prices. Silver prices are up 0.5% at $16.14 per oz, gold prices are up 0.3% at $1,237.35 per oz and platinum is the laggard with a 0.1% gain. This comes after a strong performance on Monday when the complex closed up an average of 0.8%.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange have started to weaken as European trading gets underway with three-month prices off by an average of 0.2% this morning.
Zinc prices are off the most with a 0.7% decline to $2,800.5 per tonne and copper prices are off 0.4% at $5,982 per tonne. Tin prices are bucking the trend with a 0.2% increase to $19,945 per tonne. Volume has picked up in the past 30 minutes, 6,004 lots had traded as of 07:05 BST.
This comes after a mixed performance on Monday when copper, zinc and nickel closed up between 0.8% and 1.3%, while the rest were down between 0.2% and 0.9%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the base metals prices are up an average of 0.3%, led by a 1.2% rally in nickel prices, copper prices are up 0.5% at 47,780 yuan ($7,054) per tonne, zinc and tin prices are up 0.4%, while aluminium prices are down 0.7% and lead prices are off 0.3%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.8% at 47,690-47,790 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is firmer at 7.98. There seems to be some mismatch between the SHFE and LME prices, with the LME weakening while the SHFE has held up.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 5.5% at 518 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 0.1%, silver prices are up 0.7% and gold prices are 0.4% firmer.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.2% at $48.44 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has eased to 2.30%, while the German ten-year bund yield is little changed at 0.58%.
Equities were slightly weaker on Monday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing off 0.3% but the Dow closed little changed at 21,629.72. In Asia this morning the markets are weaker, with the Nikkei down 0.6%, the Hang Seng and CSI 300 are off 0.1%, the Kospi is little changed, while the ASX 200 is down 1.2%.
The dollar index at 94.79 continues to weaken, while the euro remains upbeat at 1.1520, as are sterling at 1.3103 and the Australian dollar at 0.7915 and the yen is firmer at 112.12. The yuan is stronger too at 6.7586.
On the economic agenda there is a host of UK inflation data plus ZEW economic sentiment in Germany and the EU, with US data including import prices, NAHB housing market index and TIC long term purchases. In addition, Bank of England governor Mark Carney is speaking.
The metals have turned weaker as Europe has opened. On Monday, there were definite signs of strength in some of the metals, notably copper, zinc and nickel, while higher price levels in the rest led to some selling, which now appears to be rolling into the other metals too. Given the continued fall in the dollar we would expect dips to be supported. Overall we remain quietly bullish for the base metals.
Gold prices have firmed up in recent days, this despite geopolitical concerns being light but the weaker dollar and a less hawkish US Federal Reserve seem to be underpinning price rises. All in all, we are not expecting much from the precious metals camp in the short term, but we expect dips to remain supported.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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понедельник, 17 июля 2017 г.
воскресенье, 16 июля 2017 г.
суббота, 15 июля 2017 г.
пятница, 14 июля 2017 г.
Gold’s rebound seems half-hearted
FastMarkets
Gold and silver prices are little changed this morning with spot gold at $1,217.40 per oz, this as prices consolidate after recent weakness. The PGMs are firmer, up by around 0.4%. This follows a down day on Thursday, when prices dropped an average of 0.8%, ranged between 0.1% for gold prices and 1.3% for silver prices.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange this morning are split into two camps with copper, aluminium and nickel prices up an average of 0.5% with three-month copper at $5,887 per tonne, while zinc, lead and tin prices are down an average of 0.2% – but volume has been light with 3,844 lots traded as of 06.43 BST.
This follows a generally weaker day’s performance on Thursday, the exception was aluminium that closed up 1.8% at $1,923.50 per tonne, while the rest were down an average of 0.5%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), aluminium prices are up 0.8%, while the rest are down an average of 1.1%, with lead prices down 2.1%, zinc prices off 1.8% and tin prices down 1%. Copper prices are down 0.3% at 47,170 yuan ($6,955) per tonne, spot copper prices in Changjiang are off 0.2% at 46,870-46,990 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.01.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are off 1% at 483 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down 1.9%, silver prices are down 1.5% and gold prices are down 0.5%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.1% at $48.39 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has firmed to 2.35%, while the German ten-year bund yield is little changed at 0.52%.
Equities were firmer on Thursday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.4% and the Dow closed up 0.1% at 21,553.09. Asia this morning is slightly higher with the Nikkei up 0.2%, the Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up less than 0.1%, the ASX 200 is up 0.3% and Kospi is up 0.2%.
The dollar index at 95.71 is consolidating in low ground, the downward trend dominates though. The euro at 1.1407 is consolidating in high ground, but it is looking quite stretched on the upside for now. Sterling is firm at 1.2957, the yen at 113.30 looks like it may be about to strengthen, while the Australian dollar at 0.7758 is on fire and at highs for the year. Resistance is seen at 0.7778 and 0.7834.
The yuan is looking stronger again at 6.7797, the real at 3.2100 is climbing, the rand and peso are stronger, while the rupee, ringgit and rupiah are fairly flat.
Data out already showed weaker than expected Japanese industrial production that fell 3.6%, down from 3.3% previously. Later there is data out on Italy’s trade balance and US data includes consumer price index, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilisation, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, inflation expectation and business inventories.
This week’s rebound in base metals prices ran into selling on Thursday, with aluminium the only metal to show particular strength on the back of talk of further production cuts in China. This morning nickel is looking stronger, while the rest seem in consolidation mode, but as mentioned above volume is light. Although China’s trade data was strong, data for copper imports showed weakness, which may have worried the market yesterday. Overall, we remain quietly bullish for the base metals.
Gold prices are consolidating, this week’s rebound has been half-hearted, strong equities and a low level of geopolitical tension are weighing on sentiment, while a weaker dollar is providing for some support. All in all, we are not expecting much from the precious metals camp in the short term, but we expect dips to remain supported.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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четверг, 13 июля 2017 г.
среда, 12 июля 2017 г.
Gold prices start to rebound, weaker dollar helping
FastMarkets
Precious metals prices are similarly firmer this morning, Wednesday July 12, with average gains of 0.6%, led by a 0.9% rebound in spot palladium prices to $856.50 per oz, while gold prices lag behind with a 0.2% rise to $1,219.59 per oz. This follows a day of consolidating on Tuesday when the complex closed up an average of 0.5%.
The base metals on the London Metal Exchange are firmer this morning, with prices up an average of 0.3%, led by 0.5% gains in copper ($5,906 per tonne) and lead ($2,321 per tonne).
Volume is above average for this time of day with 4,770 lots traded as of 05:16 BST.
The base metals were looking firmer yesterday morning too, and went on to close with average gains of 0.7%. Nickel and zinc were the main performers on Tuesday, closing up 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively, with copper closing up 0.7% at $5,877 per tonne.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), base metals prices are up by a healthy 1.5% on average, led by a 2.7% rebound in nickel prices, with zinc prices up 2.3%. We noted yesterday in our Nickel Today report that with iron ore and steel rebar futures in China ticking higher again, demand for steel products may be on the rise too, which may well be why nickel and zinc have seen good gains today. The rest of the base metals are up between 0.9% for lead and 1.1% for aluminium, with copper prices up 1% at 47,330 yuan ($6,971) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.9% at 47,050-47,170 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has eased to 8.01.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 0.9% at 492.50 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 2.2%, silver prices have recovered 2% and gold prices are up 0.5%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.1% at $48.15 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has eased to 2.35%, while the German ten-year bund is little changed at 0.55%.
Equities were split on Tuesday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.4%, while the Dow closed little changed at 21,409.07. In Asia this morning, equities are broadly weaker, with the ASX 200 down 0.9%, the Nikkei is off 0.6%, the Kospi is off 0.1%, while the Hang Seng is up 0.8%.
The dollar index’s show of strength/consolidation has given way to further weakness with the index falling to 95.55, the low from June 30 was 95.47. The weaker dollar has given the euro a boost to a new high for the year at 1.1487, the Australian dollar is firmer at 0.7653, the yen is likewise firmer at 113.38, this comes after Tuesday’s low of 114.49, while sterling is weaker at 1.2853 – suggesting Brexit concerns are weighing on the currency.
Data out already showed Japan’s producer price index (PPI) steady at 2.1% and its tertiary industrial activity dropped 0.1% in May, better than the 0.5% fall expected, but down from a 1.4% rise in April – it is a volatile data series though. Later there is data out on German wholesale price index (WPI), a host of UK employment data, EU industrial production, US crude oil inventories and the Beige book. The focus, however, today is likely to be US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to the US House Financial Services Committee.
Base metals prices are on the rise again today, the spell of weakness seen last week seems to have passed. Zinc is leading the advance with prices pushing up to levels not seen since March, copper prices have gapped higher and the rest look well placed to rebound/climb. Whether consumers will feel the need to chase prices higher is another matter – we doubt they will, but there may be some short-covering to be done now the latest downside run may have run its course.
The sell-off in the precious metals prices also seems to have run their course, with underlying tails on recent days’ candlesticks suggesting dip buying interest. The dollar’s resumption of its weaker trend is also likely to be a supporting factor, as is the latest uptick in the Washington political scene over Donald Trump Jr’s dealings with the Russians ahead of last year’s US election. Given the weakness of late in the precious metals, we would not be surprised to see the rebounds travel further.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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вторник, 11 июля 2017 г.
Gold prices weak, silver prices even weaker
FastMarkets
Gold, platinum and silver prices continued to weaken this morning, Tuesday July 11, with prices down an average of 0.3%, with spot gold prices at $1,212.30 per oz, while palladium is working higher with a gain of 0.5%. This follows a day when some dip buying was evident on Monday. Lack of any pick-up in geopolitical concerns over the North Korean situation seems to have left gold prices facing the full headwind from higher bond yields.
The base metals are looking a bit firmer and better placed to work higher this morning. London Metal Exchange three month prices are not up by much – up an average of 0.2% – but on top of most of the metals’ rebounds from Monday’s lows, the metals may be putting an end to the recent weaker tone. Needless to say such a fledgling rebound could be snuffed out, but as of 07:16 BST it is looking a bit brighter, even if volume is low with 4,323 lots traded.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the base metals prices are ranged between a 1.1% rise in lead prices and a 0.8% drop in aluminium prices, while copper prices are off slightly at 46,850 yuan ($6,882) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.3% at 46,600-46,750 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has eased to 8.02.
The base metals may be subdued, but the steel raw materials and steels are more bullish with September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange up 3.4% at 496.50 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 3.5%, silver prices are down 0.9% and gold prices are little changed.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.2% at $47.09 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries remains at 2.38%, the German ten-year bund is little changed at 0.55%.
Equities were split on Monday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.4%, while the Dow closed down 5.8 points at 21,408.52. Asia, however, is looking more upbeat this morning with the Nikkei and Kospi both up 0.6%, the Hang Seng is up 1.5%, the CSI 300 is up 1%, while the ASX 200 lags with a 0.1% gain.
The dollar index, at 96.16 is slightly firmer, it still seems to be trying to form a base, although it could still be another mini-counter trend move. The euro is consolidating recent gains at 1.1386, sterling at 1.2881 is drifting, it looks a bit double-toppy on the chart, the yen at 114.40 is weakening, while the Australian dollar at 0.7622 is firmer.
Data out already shows a pick-up in UK retail sales, Japan’s M2 and Japan’s preliminary machine tool orders. The latter tends to move in a slow circular wave, it crossed higher in January and has been trending higher since – each positive and negative wave seems to last for a minimum of 15 months – so that bodes well. Later there is data on Italian industrial production, UK leading indicators, US small business index, US job openings and final wholesale inventories. In addition, UK Monetary Policy Committee members Andrew Haldane and Ben Broadbent and US Federal Open Market Committee member Lael Brainard are speaking.
The base metals are looking brighter with recent price weakness attracting some dip buying – lead and zinc prices look best placed to extend gains, copper and nickel prices seem to be turning higher, while aluminium and tin are consolidating. With lack of fear in the broader markets, so little sign of any broad market risk-off move and after a quiet second quarter, we do expect metals prices to remain underpinned. Whether consumers will feel the need to chase prices higher is another matter – we doubt they will, but there may be some short-covering to be done once the downside looks limited.
Gold, silver and platinum prices are trending lower with further important support levels broken – this as bond yields rise and investors are keeping calm over the developments in North Korea. The firmer monetary policy rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and even the Bank of England, have raised the opportunity cost of holding precious metals and investors are voting with their feet as this unfolds. While this happens, we would keep an eye on geopolitical developments, we expect these to rise before too long, but weaker precious metals prices should therefore lead to even cheaper havens should the need arise.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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понедельник, 10 июля 2017 г.
Silver price sell-off continues
FastMarkets
Gold, platinum and silver prices continued to sell-off while palladium prices are firmer. Silver leads on the downside this morning, Monday July 10, with a 1% drop to $15.41 per oz, gold prices are down 0.5% at $1,207.08 per oz and platinum prices are off 0.2%, while palladium is up 0.1%. This follows a drop of 3.1%in silver price on Friday, a 1% drop in gold prices and a 0.6% fall in platinum prices, while palladium prices climbed 0.5%.
The metals remain on a back footing this morning, with the base metals complex on the London Metal Exchange down an average of 0.4% as of 07:18 BST.
Lead and zinc prices are off the most, down 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively, while nickel, aluminium and copper are off an average of 0.2% with three-month copper prices at $5,825 per tonne. Tin is the lone metal in positive territory this morning – prices are up 0.1% at $19,750 per tonne. This follows a mixed performance on Friday when lead and zinc prices closed firmer, while the rest closed lower, led by a 1.1% drop in tin prices. Volume this morning has been average with 5,375 lots traded.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), lead and zinc prices are higher with gains of 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, while nickel prices lead on the downside with 1% drop, tin prices are down 0.5%, aluminium prices are off 0.2% and copper prices are little changed at 46,880 yuan ($6,891) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.2% at 46,710-46,910 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has firmed to 8.05.
September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 1.4% at 479 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 1.4%, silver prices are down 3.1% and gold prices are off 0.9%
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.1% at $46.84 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries remains at 2.38%, the German ten-year bund is unchanged at 0.56%.
Good US employment data on Friday helped steady equities with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing all but flat, while the Dow closed up 0.4% at 21,414.34. Asia this morning is also firmer, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng both up 0.8%, the ASX 200 is up 0.4%, the CSI 300 is up 0.2% and the Kospi is up 0.1%.
The dollar index, at 96.05 is slightly firmer, it looks as though the dollar is trying to form a base having falling from 103.80 in early January – this despite the interest rate rises and a generally hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed). The euro is at 1.1400, it is holding just below recent highs of 1.1445, sterling is weaker at 1.2899, the yen is weak at 114.20 and the Australian dollar at 0.7604 appears to be consolidating.
Economic data out so far this morning shows a fairly steady to slightly better situation with Japan’s bank lending rising 3.3%, from 3.2%, core machine orders were worse than expected but it is a volatile data series, Japan’s current account showed imports rose 15.8% and exports climbed 12.9% and economic watchers sentiment climbed to 50 from 48.6. China’s consumer price index and producer price index came in unchanged at 1.5% and 5.5%, respectively, and Germany’s trade balance showed exports rose 0.8% and imports grew 1.2%. Data out later includes EU Sentix investor confidence, US labour market conditions index and consumer credit.
The base metals are looking weaker this morning with aluminium, lead and zinc consolidating in high ground, while the prices of the other metals seem to be drifting either as they consolidate, or as part of a correction. We now wait to see if the prices are indeed consolidating, or whether the earlier rallies are now over and prices are heading lower again. With the summer slowdown upon us, further weakness could follow, although given a less than firm second quarter for metals prices, it may be that consumers are still running hand to mouth and therefore there will be steady demand for metals through the summer.
Gold, silver and platinum prices are trending lower with some important support levels broken – this as bond yields rise and investors are keeping calm over the developments in North Korea. The firmer monetary policy rhetoric from the Fed, the European Central Bank and even the Bank of England, have raised the opportunity cost of holding precious metals and investors are voting with their feet as this unfolds. While this happens, we would keep an eye on geopolitical developments, we expect these to rise before too long, but weaker precious metals prices should therefore lead to even cheaper havens should the need arise.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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воскресенье, 9 июля 2017 г.
суббота, 8 июля 2017 г.
пятница, 7 июля 2017 г.
Silver recovers from flash-crash
FastMarkets
Gold and platinum prices are down 0.4% this morning, Friday July 7, with spot gold prices at $1,220.30 per oz, silver prices are down 1.2% (in early trading it appears silver suffered a flash-crash down below $15 per oz, but only for seconds, the fact it rebounded suggests it may have been a trading error). Palladium prices are up 0.2%. Rising bond yields seem to be driving bullion prices, while geopolitical concerns over North Korea are not yet showing themselves.
Consolidation has set in across most of the base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange this morning, Friday July 7, with three-month prices down an average of 0.3%. The exception is nickel where prices are under more pressure – off 0.7% at $9,035 per tonne. Copper prices are off 0.1% at $5,840 per tonne. Volume has been light with 2,997 lots traded as of 06:13 BST.
This comes after a general up day on Thursday that saw gains in aluminium, lead and tin, averaging 0.6%, while nickel dropped 0.4% and copper and zinc were little changed.
Today’s weaker tone comes after a generally weaker day on Thursday, when gold prices dropped 0.2%, palladium prices dropped 0.6% and silver and platinum prices were little changed.
In Asia this morning, the base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are mixed. Lead prices are up 1.2%, zinc prices are up 0.5% and copper prices are up 0.1% at 46,880 yuan ($6,893) per tonne, while on the downside, nickel leads with a 0.9% drop, aluminium prices are off 0.3% and tin prices are down 0.1%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are off 0.1% at 46,680-46,800 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has firmed to 8.03.
September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 2.1% at 476 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 0.1%, gold prices are down 0.1% and silver prices are off 0.6%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down 1% at $47.51 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries is higher at 2.38%, the German ten-year bund is at 0.56%.
Rising bond yields were worrying the equity markets on Thursday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.5% and the Dow closed off 0.7% at 21,320.04. The worry has flowed through to Asia this morning, where the ASX 200 is down 0.8%, Kospi is down 0.6%, the Nikkei and CSI 300 are off 0.4% and the Hang Seng is off 0.3%. Key now will be whether the bond rout continues and whether that ends up prompting broader risk-off move across other markets.
The dollar index, at 95.96 is weaker, this despite firmer bond yields. Conversely, the euro has rebounded to 1.1415, sterling is treading water at 1.2960, the yen is weaker at 113.73 and the Australian dollar at 0.7587 is little changed, but looking weaker.
The yuan, at 6.8014, remains weak, the rand at 13.4624 is weakening again, while the other emerging market currencies we follow are generally flat.
It is a busy day for economic data, with the highlights being the US employment report and G20 meeting – data out already showed better than expected Japanese leading indicators and German industrial production. Data out later includes French industrial production, government budget balance and trade balance, UK house prices, manufacturing and industrial production, goods trade balance and GDP estimates, while in addition to the US employment report there is data on natural gas storage and a US Federal Reserve monetary policy report.
Copper and nickel prices are looking the weaker ones in the LME complex this week, but the weakness seems to be part of an effort to consolidate, which most of the other metals are also doing. The exception is aluminium, where prices are pushing higher towards former resistance levels that are bunched together in the $1,960-1980 per tonne area. While the metals consolidate, direction may come from the broader markets – for now geopolitical concerns are surprisingly having little effect on markets, but a correction in the massive bond markets does seem to be having an impact and that has potential to trigger a bigger risk-off move.
Gold prices are under pressure, as are silver and platinum prices, while palladium prices continue to correct after the sharp May-June rally. With the precious metals looking vulnerable on the back of stronger bond yields much will depend on whether investors start to want switch more into havens – this could happen either on a pick-up in geopolitical concerns over North Korea, or if they get more worried about risk off in broader markets.
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четверг, 6 июля 2017 г.
среда, 5 июля 2017 г.
Gold prices not reacting much to raised geopolitical tensions
FastMarkets
Gold prices are little changed at $1,225.24 per oz this morning, Wednesday July 5, palladium prices are up 0.4%, while silver prices are up 0.1% and platinum prices are down 0.1%. This follows a slightly firmer day for gold prices on Tuesday with prices closing up 0.2%, silver prices closed down 0.1%, while the PGMs were stronger with gains of around 0.8%.
We are somewhat surprised gold prices have not been more buoyant given the pick-up in tension over North Korea’s latest missile test.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part slightly firmer this morning, with prices up an average of 0.2%.
Zinc leads the way with a 0.4% rise, while tin bucks the trend with a 0.2% fall. Copper prices are up 0.2% at $5,900 per tonne. Volume has been light with 3,712 lots traded as of 06:47 BST. Today’s early trading seems to be around consolidation, following a weak performance on Tuesday when prices dropped an average of 1%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) the metals are split, with aluminium prices leading on the upside with a 0.7% gain, zinc prices are up 0.5% and copper prices are up 0.1% at 47,260 yuan ($6,953 ) per tonne, while lead leads on the downside with a 1.6% drop, with nickel prices off 0.8% and tin off 0.3%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.2% at 46,980-47,180 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has firmed to 8.01.
September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are down 0.2% at 477 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 1.3%, gold prices are down 0.1% and silver prices are off 0.3%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down 0.2% at $49.53 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has eased two basis points to 2.33%.
Equity markets gave back some of their recent rebound gains, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.4%, while the Dow was closed. In Asia this morning, the markets are generally firmer with the Nikkei up 0.2%, the Hang Seng is up 0.6%, the Kospi is up 0.4%, the CSI 300 is up for 0.7%, while the ASX 200 has given back some of its gains from Tuesday with the index down 0.1%. Surprisingly, the markets seem to be ignoring/misjudging the escalation in the North Korean threat.
The dollar index at 96.19 is once again treading water after a fairly sharp, but so far short-lived rebound – the down trend still dominates. The euro is consolidating at 1.1359, sterling at 1.2916 is drifting lower, the Australian dollar is trying to push higher again, while the yen is looking weaker again. With the yen weaker and gold not showing much strength – investors are signalling little angst over North Korea. We feel the combination of the raised threat and a somewhat maverick US president, should be ring a few more alarm bells.
The yuan at 6.7953 is little changed having eased in recent days from relatively strong levels. The slightly weaker trend of late in the other emerging market currencies we follow seem to be consolidating today, suggesting markets may be in wait-and-see mode.
The economic focus is on services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data today, China’s Caixin reading dropped to 51.6, from 52.8, later there is data out across Europe. In addition, there is data on EU retail sales, US factory orders, US economic optimism and at 7pm BST there is the release of the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes.
The stronger tone in base metals from last week has run out of steam this week, the jump in copper stocks of late has not helped sentiment and there may have been some profit-taking/selling ahead of today’s LME option declaration. We had wondered whether the combination of more hawkish central bank plans and now the pick-up in geopolitical tension would lead to risk-off but that has not happened so far. In the absence of that, then we would not be surprised to see the stronger tone resume in the base metals, but we may have to wait until after option declaration to see whether that is the case.
Gold prices remain under pressure in fairly low ground, silver and platinum are in the same position, while palladium prices still seem to be in correction mode following strong gains of late. The market seems too complacent about North Korea for our liking, so we would not be surprised to see a delayed reaction down the road.
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вторник, 4 июля 2017 г.
Gold prices edge higher as geopolitical tensions pick-up again
FastMarkets
Gold prices are up 0.2% at $1,224.32 per oz this morning, Tuesday July 4, silver prices are little changed, while the PGMs are stronger with gains averaging 0.8%. This comes after a weak performance in bullion prices on Monday that saw silver prices drop 2.7%, gold prices drop 1.5% and platinum fall 2.2%, while palladium bucked the trend with a 0.4% rise. What is surprising is that the PGMs are up despite poor US total vehicle sales that came in at an annualised 16.5 million units in June – the lowest since April 2015.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are down across the board by an average of 0.7% this morning.
Nickel and zinc prices lead the declines with losses of 1.4% and 1.1%, respectively, while three month copper prices are off 0.5% at $5,885 per tonne. Volume has been above average with 6,594 lots as of 06:14 BST.
Today’s performance comes after a generally stronger day on Monday when some solid gains were seen in zinc, lead and tin, that closed up an average of 1.4%, while aluminium closed up 0.2% and copper and nickel bucked the trend with losses of 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively – copper did not do too badly considering stocks climbed a net 28,575 tonnes.
The base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are for the most part weaker, zinc bucks the trend with a 0.5% gain, while the rest are down between 0.1% for aluminium prices and 2.1% for nickel prices. Copper prices are down 0.8% at 47,130 yuan per tonne ($6,932 per tonne). Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.4% at 46,900-47,100 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has firmed to 8.00.
September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are down 1.1% at 473 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 0.4%, gold prices are down 1.1% and silver prices are off 3%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down 0.3% at $49.40 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has climbed to 2.35%. The firmer yield seems to be underpinning the dollar.
Equity markets continued their rebound following last week’s early jitters – the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 1.5% and the Dow closed up 0.6%. In Asia this morning, however, most markets are weaker with the Nikkei down 0.3%, the Hang Seng is down 1.6%, the Kospi is down 0.7%, the CSI 300 is down 0.9%, while the ASX 200 bucks the trend with a 1.6% gain as the central bank left interest rates unchanged. Asian stock markets seem to have been rattled by another North Korean missile test.
The dollar index at 96.28 is rebounding, the rising treasury yield no doubt providing support as did some of Monday’s data, especially ISM manufacturing PMI that climbed to 57.8 from 54.9. As the dollar strengthened other currencies have weakened with the euro at 1.1342, sterling at 1.2936 and the Australian dollar has fallen to 0.7608, while the yen (113.00) has strengthened on the pick-up in geopolitical tension over North Korea’s latest missile test – the eleventh test this year. The regime also said it would make an ‘important announcement’ on Tuesday afternoon.
The yuan is weaker again today at 6.7986, this after a strong move last week and the other emerging market currencies we follow are also weaker, which suggests some pick-up in concerns – either about a strengthening dollar, or on the back of geopolitical tension.
With the USA on holiday for July 4 celebrations, the economic agenda is light – the Bank of Japan’s core CPI climbed to 0.3% from 0.2%, later there is data on Spanish unemployment change, UK construction PMI and EU PPI.
The stronger tone of late in the base metals has ended for now with prices either pausing or starting to put in a down-day today. With the USA closed today, there may have been some profit-taking around and also option declaration tomorrow may prompt some selling too. Overall we remain quietly bullish for the metals and expect dips to be well supported although there may be some volatility ahead of option declaration.
Gold prices have been under pressure in recent days/weeks and we put that down to a general easing in geopolitical and political tensions, but with another missile test by North Korea, with US president Donald Trump cranking up the rhetoric again and this all happening ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting, geopolitical tensions may rise further. The yen is firmer and gold is edging higher so we wait to see if buying swings back into gold. Silver is testing support at $16.05 per oz, but we would expect it to continue to follow golds’ lead, platinum is looking weak and remains vulnerable, but like silver, prices are likely to follow gold’s lead, while palladium has also run into dip buying.
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понедельник, 3 июля 2017 г.
Gold prices under pressure as treasury yields rise
FastMarkets
Gold prices are off 0.3% at $1,237.98 per oz,this morning, Monday July 03, palladium prices are up 0.6% at $846 per oz, while silver and platinum are little changed. This follows a generally weak performance last week that saw gold prices head back towards a support line.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are off to a slower start this week with three-month prices up an average of just 0.1%. Copper prices are off 0.4% at $5,937 per tonne, aluminium prices are off 0.1%, while the rest are up between 0.2% and 0.4%. Volume has been average at 5,241 lots as of 06:46 BST.
Today’s performance comes after a generally bullish week last week that saw all prices close near the highs of the week. Further healthy Chinese manufacturing data out this morning, which showed the Caixin purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rebounding to 50.4 from 49.6, bodes well for metal prices.
The base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are for the most part firmer, the exception is copper where prices are off 0.1% at 47,380 yuan per tonne ($6,980 per tonne), while the rest are up an average of 1%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are little changed at 47,120-47,270 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has eased to 7.98.
September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are rising again, up 1.3% at 473 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 2.5%, while gold and silver prices are down 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are off 0.2% at $48.87 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has climbed to 2.32%.
Equity markets were split on Friday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.9%, while the Dow closed up 0.3%. In Asia this morning, the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up 0.1%, the Kospi is little changed, the CSI 300 is down 0.4%, and the ASX200 is down 0.5%.
The dollar index at 95.81 has found some respite from its sell-off that set a low on Friday at 95.47, but it would take a rebound above 97.87 to make the dollar look less vulnerable. The euro at 1.1404 is holding up in high ground, as is sterling at 1.2997, the yen is weaker and the Australian dollar at 0.7669 is consolidating after a strong rally.
The yuan is weaker today at 6.7873, this after a strong move last week and the other emerging market currencies we follow are slightly weaker too.
The economic agenda is busy today – data out already shows strength in Japan’s Tankan surveys and China’s Caixin PMI, although Japan’s consumer confidence eased to 43.3 from 43.6. Later there is manufacturing PMI data out across Europe and the USA, plus Italian and EU unemployment rates and US construction activity, ISM manufacturing prices and total vehicle sales. In addition, UK Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Haldane is speaking.
The base metals are looking well placed to see stronger prices extend further, helped by better than expected PMI data out of China, a generally weaker dollar and some bullish looking charts. We have generally been quietly bullish for the metals and remain so.
Gold prices are working lower as geopolitical and political tensions have eased in recent weeks and as such there seems less need for havens. Last week’s weakness in equities was short-lived with the Dow recovering towards the end of the week. We would let this pullback run its course but we generally expect dips to be well supported.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
The post Gold prices under pressure as treasury yields rise appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
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