среда, 31 мая 2017 г.
вторник, 30 мая 2017 г.
Gold prices hold on to gains
FastMarkets
Gold prices are little changed this morning, Tuesday May 30, at $1,267.21 per oz, palladium prices are up 0.8%, silver prices are up 0.6% and platinum prices are bucking the trend with a 0.5% decline. Given the friction between European leaders and US president Donald Trump after the G7 and Nato meetings, it is surprising that gold prices have not picked up more.
The base metals prices are split this morning. Copper, lead and zinc prices are off 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, with three-month copper prices at $5,642 per tonne. While aluminium prices are up 0.1%, nickel prices are up 0.3% and tin prices are up 0.7%.
With China closed for the Dragon Boat Festival, volume on the London Metal Exchange has been extremely low with just 731 lots traded as of 06:47 BST.
Equities in Europe on Monday did not react too negatively to the rhetoric following the G7 and Nato meetings, the Dax closed up 0.2%, the Cac 40 was off 0.1% and the Euro Stoxx 50 was unchanged. This this morning markets in Asia are mixed, the Nikkei is little changed, the ASX 200 is up 0.3% and the Kospi is off 0.5%.
The dollar index is firmer at 97.71, this after last week’s low of 96.79 on May 22, conversely the euro is weaker at 1.1122, as is the pound at 1.2809, the yen is firmer at 110.98, while the Australian dollar is weaker at 0.7438.
The yuan has strengthened further to 6.8295, this has taken it out of the February to late-May range that centred around 6.8900 – this suggests the authorities have given the yuan a boost following Moody’s downgrade. The other emerging market currencies are for the most part slightly weaker today, suggesting there may be a degree of risk-off in the market.
Although markets are off to a quiet start, it is a busy day on the economic front, with Japan’s household spending disappointing – it fell 1.4% – but retail sales climbed 3.2%, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.8%, while the Bank of Japan’s core CPI climbed 0.2%. European data includes German import prices and preliminary CPI, French consumer spending and GDP, Spanish CPI and US data includes personal income, spending and prices, composite house price index and consumer confidence. See table below for more details.
The base metals are for the most part consolidating with copper, aluminium, zinc and tin price rallies all paused with prices just below recent highs, while lead is attempting to rebound off recent lows and nickel prices are holding just above recent lows. The markets may now wait for further information out of China, which we should get tomorrow with the release of manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data.
Gold prices moved up above recent resistance on Friday May 26 and prices are holding on to those gains – given the frosty aftermath of President Trump’s trip to Europe and the fact he is returning to political heat in Washington over his dealings with the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, we would not be surprised to see gold prices remain bid. Silver and palladium are firmer too, while platinum prices are consolidating after recent gains.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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понедельник, 29 мая 2017 г.
воскресенье, 28 мая 2017 г.
суббота, 27 мая 2017 г.
пятница, 26 мая 2017 г.
Gold prices look well placed
FastMarkets
Base metals prices are little changed this morning, Friday May 26, with three-month prices on the London Metal Exchange up an average of 0.2%.
Nickel and lead prices, the two weakest metals of late, are up 0.4%, zinc prices are up 0.3% and aluminium and tin prices are little changed, while copper prices are off 0.2% at $5,719 per tonne. Volume has been light with 4,237 lots traded.
This follows a mixed performance on Thursday that saw nickel prices fall 0.9%, zinc prices decline 0.6% while the rest had gains of between 0.4% and 0.6%.
The precious metals prices are firmer by an average of 0.3% this morning, led by a 0.6% rise in platinum price to $950.90 per oz, gold prices are up 0.2% at $1,258.09 per oz. On Thursday, palladium prices rebounded 0.8%, to $771 per oz, while the rest were down between 0.1 and 0.2%.
Base metals prices trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are split three-ways. Nickel and zinc prices are down either side of 0.8%, aluminium and lead prices are up 0.5%, while copper and tin prices are little changed with copper prices at 45,910 yuan ($6,669) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang is up 0.1% 45,790-45,890 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weaker at 8.03.
September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange remain weak with prices down 0.9% today at 453 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down 1.9%, gold prices are off 0.2% and silver prices down 0.1%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices fell on Thursday after Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ministers agreed to extend the production cuts for another nine months, but decided against extending it for longer, which disappointed the market. This morning prices are off 0.2% at $51.20 per barrel. The yield on the US ten-year treasuries is little changed at 2.25%.
Equities were mixed on Thursday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.1% and the Dow closed up 0.3% at 21,082.95. Asia, however, is weaker with the ASX 200 down 0.7%, the Nikkei is off 0.6%, the CSI 300 is off 0.1%, the Hang Seng is little changed and the Kospi is bucking the trend with a 0.6% gain.
The dollar index at 97.32 is consolidating recent weakness, the recent low was 96.79, seen on Monday May 22. With the dollar looking heavy further weakness seems likely, which may well help support metals prices. The euro is also consolidating at 1.1194, the Australian dollar is weaker at 0.7430, as is the sterling at 1.2869, while the yen is firmer at 111.44.
The yuan is strengthening, it was recently quoted at 6.8446, as is the ringgit, while the other emerging market currencies we follow are trading sideways, with a slight stronger bias.
Japan’s economic data this morning showed firmer a CPI reading, although services PPI was slightly lower than expected. Data out later is focused on the USA and includes durable goods orders, preliminary GDP and GDP prices and revised University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. See table below for more details.
Aluminium and copper are the base metals looking the strongest as prices gradually work higher, while zinc and tin prices are consolidating recent gains and lead and nickel remain under pressure. Nickel prices continue to look vulnerable, while the rest of the metals look well placed to work higher, especially lead that is looking oversold. With long weekends in the UK and USA, trading is likely to be subdued unless interested parties try to take advantage of the likely low liquidity to give prices a push.
Gold prices are consolidating and are holding up well as they do. We wait to see if resistance at $1,265 per oz is overcome, which could then lead to a challenge of the April highs. Silver and platinum prices are mapping gold’s performance, while palladium prices are consolidating after their earlier correction – we wait to see if a base is in place, or whether there will be another down leg.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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четверг, 25 мая 2017 г.
Gold prices hold up well but face headwinds
FastMarkets
Base metals prices are little changed this morning, Thursday May 25, with three-month zinc prices off 0.5% at $2,638 per tonne, copper is off 0.1% at $5,696 per tonne, while the rest are up between 0.1% to 0.2%.
Volume has been low with 3,718 lots traded as of 06:27 BST, with most of the volume seen in zinc. This comes after a negative day of trading on Wednesday, when prices closed down an average of 0.7%, which was somewhat skewed by a 2.4% drop in nickel prices.
The precious metals prices are up an average of 0.2% this morning with gains spread between 0.1% for spot gold at $1,258.80 per oz and platinum where prices are up 0.3% at $948.50 per oz. Wednesday generally saw firmer prices with gold, silver and platinum up an average of 0.4%, while palladium prices remained under pressure with prices down 1% at $765 per oz.
Base metals prices trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are for the most part stronger this morning, the exception is nickel that is down 1.4%, while the rest are up between 0.1% for tin prices and 0.4% for aluminium prices. Copper is up 0.2% at 45,940 yuan ($6,666) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang down 0.2% at 45,760-45,860 yuan per tonne, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weaker at 8.07. Given the Moody’s cut of China’s debt rating on Wednesday, the metals have generally taken the news in their stride.
September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange continue their volatile trading, prices are down 2.8% today at 453.50 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are off 0.2% and gold and silver prices are little changed.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are stronger, up 1.1% at $54.43 per barrel, this as Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ministers meet today in Vienna. The yield on the US ten-year treasuries has eased, it is 2.25%.
Equities were mixed on Wednesday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.2% and the Dow closed up 0.4% at 21,012.42. Asia, however, is firmer with the CSI 300 up 1.2%, the Kospi is up 1.1% after setting a record high earlier today, the Hang Seng is up 0.8%, the Nikkei is up 0.4% and he ASX 200 is up 0.2%. Again, the strength in Asia suggests the markets have not been too fazed by Moody’s downgrade.
The dollar index got some lift on Tuesday and saw some follow through-buying on Wednesday morning, but then went on to slip in the afternoon, it was recently quoted at 96.94 – the recent low was 96.79, seen on Monday May 22. With the dollar looking heavy further weakness seems likely, which may well help support metals prices. The euro is firm at 1.1238, as is the Australian dollar at 0.7503, while the sterling and the yen are consolidating at 1.2989 and 111.67, respectively.
The yuan has strengthened to 6.8560, from 6.8802 on Wednesday – this suggests the authorities have given the yuan a boost to avoid any negative effect from Moody’s downgrade. The other emerging market currencies are also stronger, which is a sign of confidence and suggests the market is putting risk back on again.
Today’s economic agenda is focused on the UK and USA, with UK data including a second reading on GDP, business investment, mortgage approvals and an index of services. US data includes initial jobless claims, goods trade balance, preliminary wholesale inventories and natural gas storage. See table below for more details.
The base metals are split into three camps; copper, aluminium and tin have regained their upward bias, zinc is consolidating in high ground, while lead and nickel prices remain weak. Nickel’s weakness is understandable given the boost supply has been given from Indonesia and the Philippines in recent months, but lead’s weakness is surprising, especially with data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showing a meaningful swing back to a supply deficit in March, while the other metals are reflecting our quietly bullish outlook.
Gold, silver and platinum prices are holding up well, but given the firmer tone in equities we are not particularly bullish, although we do expect prices to be well supported. We see palladium prices correcting after their recent strength and given some poor auto sales data, but again we expect dips will be well supported.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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среда, 24 мая 2017 г.
Gold prices consolidate, firmer dollar a headwind
FastMarkets
Gold prices are little changed this morning at $1,251.92 per oz, as are palladium prices at $772.50 per oz, while silver prices are off 0.6% and platinum is off 0.4%. On Tuesday, gold and silver prices closed down either side of 0.6%, platinum prices were off 0.2% and palladium prices rebounded 0.5%.
Base metals prices are weaker this morning, Wednesday May 24, with prices down an average of 1.1% on the London Metal Exchange, as Moody’s Investors Services has cut China’s debt rating to A1 from Aa3 – the first cut since 1989.
Nickel prices are down the most, off 1.7%, zinc prices are down 1.5% and three-month copper prices are off 1.1% at $5,661 per tonne, while the rest are off between 0.6% and 0.9%. Volume has been above average at 7,576 lots.
This comes after a mixed performance on Tuesday that saw zinc prices rise 0.8%, aluminium prices were up 0.6% and nickel prices dipped 0.6%, while the rest were little changed, although the overall trends in most of the metals have had an upside bias of late, the exception being lead.
In Shanghai this morning, most of the base metals prices trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are weaker, the exception is aluminium that is little changed, while the rest are down by an average of 0.9%. This is skewed by a 2.4% fall in nickel prices, with tin prices down 1%, lead and zinc prices off 0.3% and copper prices off 0.4% at 45,770 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down just 0.1% at 45,750-45,950 yuan per tonne, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is little changed at 8.09. Given the Moody’s news, it is perhaps surprising that prices are not down more, but the country as a whole is not dependent on external financing.
September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange continue their volatile trading, prices are down 6.7% today at 456.50 yuan per tonne, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down 3.1% and gold and silver prices are off 0.7%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.3% at $54.30 per barrel, this as Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ministers meet on Thursday and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries is firmer at 2.28%, suggesting some relaxing in haven demand.
Equities were firmer on Tuesday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.5% and the Dow closed up 0.2% at 20,937.91. Asia is mixed, the CSI 300 is off 0.6%, the Hang Seng is off 0.1%, so the Chinese focused markets are weaker following Moody’s downgrade but not meaningfully so, conversely, the Nikkei is up 0.6%, the Kospi is up 0.2% and the ASX 200 is little changed.
The dollar index got some lift on Tuesday and has seen some follow-through buying to 97.42 this morning, this after a low of 96.79 on Monday May 22. Key now will be whether the dollar’s correction has run its course – given that the US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC’s) May meeting minutes are out this evening and the market is still expecting a rate rise in June, it may well be that the dollar rebounds some. As the dollar rises, the euro has turned lower, last at 1.1176, the sterling is flat at 1.2969, the yen is weaker at 111.97, as is the Australian dollar at 0.7448 – which is not surprising given the drop in iron ore prices and Moody’s downgrade of Chinese debt.
The yuan is little changed at 6.8802 and most of the other emerging market (EM) currencies are generally consolidating, with a slightly weaker bias.
The economic agenda is fairly light but influential all the same with data including GfK German consumer climate and with US data including house prices index, existing home sales and crude oil inventories. The focus will be on the FOMC meeting minutes and later FOMC member Robert Kaplan is speaking. See table below for more details.
Moody’s downgrade has knocked the wind out of the rising base metals prices’ sails this morning but Chinese markets have not reacted too negatively so far, so it may be that we are seeing early knee-jerk reactions. Key now will be whether there is follow-through selling, or whether the dips are seen as a buying opportunity in line with the firmer trends of late. However, the downgrade is a warning that China’s move to reduce risk in the financial sector could worsen the debt situation in the months ahead. On balance, we still view the underlying economic trends as being bullish for base metals prices, the weakness seen since February seems to be the market having to adjust as it absorbs the extra supply that high prices between November and February prompted. But, once absorbed supply is expected to tighten again. Prices still have more work to do on the upside before they will look bullish though and any pullback now could further delay that.
Gold prices are consolidating again. Political uncertainty in the USA continues, but the rhetoric has died down while US president Donald Trump is on his foreign tour. In addition, generally firmer equities increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, so we are not surprised the market is not overly bullish at the moment. That said, Moody’s downgrade will focus attention on Chinese debt and that may encourage some investors to diversify their portfolios more as an insurance against corrections in other markets. As such, we expect precious metals to remain well supported.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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вторник, 23 мая 2017 г.
понедельник, 22 мая 2017 г.
Gold prices consolidate, may face headwinds
FastMarkets
The precious metals are mixed this morning, Monday May 22, with platinum and gold prices down 0.2% – spot gold prices were recently quoted at $1,252.96 per oz – while silver prices are up 0.3% and palladium prices are up 0.2%. This comes after a strong performance on Friday when prices closed up an average of 0.7%, led by a 1.5% gain in spot silver prices to $16.84 per oz.
The base metals on the London Metal Exchange are consolidating this morning, with prices down an average of 0.7%, although that is skewed by a 3% decline in three-month nickel prices to $9,085 per tonne. The rest are down an average of 0.4%, except tin prices which are little changed.
Volume has been higher than of late with 7,636 lots traded as of 06:44 BST.
This comes after an outright bullish day on Friday when prices closed up an average of 1.9%, but intraday at the highs, prices were up between 1% for tin and 3.6% for zinc, with lead and nickel up either side of 3%.
In Shanghai this morning, most of the base metals trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are stronger, the exception is aluminium which is off just 0.1%, while the rest are up between 1% for tin and 4.3% for zinc prices. Copper prices are up 1.4% at 45,760 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 1.3% at 45,710-45,860 yuan per tonne, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is little changed at 8.08.
Steel rebar prices on the SHFE are up 4.8% and September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 4.5% at 495.50 yuan per tonne, while gold prices are little changed and silver prices are up 0.4%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.3% at $53.97 per barrel, as Saudi Arabia signals that oil producers have agreed to extend supply cuts. The yield on the US ten-year treasuries is a little firmer at 2.25%.
Equities were stronger on Friday with the Euro Stoxx 50 and Dow closing up 0.7%, with the latter at 20,804.84. Asia has been stronger for the most part today with the Nikkei up 0.5%, the Hang Seng is up 0.9%, the ASX 200 is up 0.8%, the Kospi is up 0.6%, while the CSI 300 is off 0.1%.
The dollar index continues to trend lower, it was recently quoted at 97.23 – having reached a low of 97.08 on Friday. Conversely, the euro is consolidating at 1.1195 after Friday’s fresh high of 1.1212, the sterling is at 1.2989, the yen is at 111.39 and the Australian dollar is at 0.7442. The weaker dollar should help underpin commodity prices.
The yuan is firmer at 6.8792, the Brazilian real at 3.2551 is recouping some of last week’s politically-induced losses and the other emerging market (EM) currencies are generally firmer, which suggests a degree of confidence in the broader markets.
The economic agenda is fairly light on the data front with UK house prices, Japan’s trade balance, a monthly report from the Bundesbank and Chinese leading indicators, but there is a Eurogroup meeting and US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members Patrick Harker and Neel Kashkari as well as UK prime minister Theresa May are speaking. See table below for more details.
The underlying tails on base metals prices on Thursday’s candlesticks showed dip-buying emerged and that flowed through to further buying on Friday, which helped reduce the vulnerable feel to the markets that was evident earlier last week. It would appear that copper, aluminium, zinc, tin and nickel prices are all looking stronger now, while laggard lead remains vulnerable. Prices still have more work to do on the upside before they will look bullish again, but they also look well placed to move higher. The weaker dollar should also help underpin a firmer tone.
Gold prices are consolidating the gains seen on the latest run-up in political uncertainty in the USA, but rebounding equity markets and stronger industrial metals may act as a headwind for prices. A rebound in oil prices and a weaker dollar may underpin stronger investment demand for commodities in general, which could include gold. Silver and platinum are following gold’s lead, while weaker palladium prices seem to be reflecting profit-taking on the back of high prices of late and concerns over a weaker outlook for the auto industry.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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воскресенье, 21 мая 2017 г.
суббота, 20 мая 2017 г.
пятница, 19 мая 2017 г.
Gold prices consolidate, expect dips to be well supported
FastMarkets
Spot gold is little changed at $1,247.69 per oz this morning, as are palladium prices, while silver prices are up 0.3% at $16.64 and platinum prices are down 0.2%. This comes after a solid down day on Thursday when the complex closed down an average of 1.9%, with palladium leading on the downside with a 2.7% fall. The pullback in the precious metals seems more to do with profit-taking as the political uncertainty in Washington DC remains.
The base metals are on divergent paths this morning, Friday May 19, with three-month London Metal Exchange lead prices up 0.4%, copper prices up 0.3% at $5,597 per tonne, while nickel prices are down 1% at $9,085 per tonne and the rest are little changed.
Volume has been light with 4,161 lots traded as of 06:14 BST.
Thursday was generally a down day in the base metals complex, but prices did get some lift off the day’s lows. By the close, prices were down an average of 0.5%, although lead and zinc prices weighed on the downside with losses of 2% and 1%, respectively, but at the day’s lows they had been down 4.1% and 3.3%. Copper prices closed down 0.5% at $5,583 per tonne, while nickel and tin prices rebounded to close up with gains of 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively.
In Shanghai this morning, most of the base metals trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are stronger, the exception is lead that is down 1.3% and nickel that is off 0.1%. On the upside, aluminium and tin prices are up 0.6%, copper prices are up 0.2% at 45,240 yuan per tonne and zinc prices are little changed. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.3% at 45,180-45,280 yuan per tonne, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is slightly easier at 8.08.
Steel rebar prices on the SHFE are up 3.1% and September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 0.5% at 476.50 yuan per tonne, while gold prices are down 0.3% and silver prices are down 0.9%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.9% at $52.94 per barrel, a firmer oil price may well help underpin commodity prices, if bargain hunting is looking to take advantage of cheaper metals prices. The yield on the US ten-year treasuries is little changed at 2.24%, which suggests broader markets remain nervous about the US political situation.
Equities were mixed on Thursday with the Euro Stoxx 50 falling 0.6%, while the Dow managed to rebound 0.3% after its wobble on Wednesday. Asia has been mixed this morning, the Hang Seng is up 0.4%, the Nikkei is up 0.3%, the Kospi is up 0.2%, the CSI 300 is little changed, while the ASX 200 is off 0.2%.
The dollar index consolidated on Thursday by rebounding to 98.00, this after four days of weakness that saw the index fall to a low of 97.33 from 99.63 on May 11. This morning the index is at 97.81, but there is little question that the trend in the dollar index is now to the downside. The euro is consolidating around 1.1111, it set a high of 1.1172 yesterday, the sterling is flat at 1.2951, the Australian dollar is consolidating at 0.7424 and the yen is at 111.42.
The yuan is slightly weaker at 6.8872, the Brazilian real has plunged around 9% over the past two days, the other emerging market (EM) currencies we follow weakened recently, but are now trying to consolidate.
The economic agenda today is light and focused on Europe with German PPI, the EU current account, UK CBI industrial order expectations and EU consumer confidence – see table below for more details.
Underlying tails on Thursday’s candlesticks showed dip buying emerged and the stronger than expected US data on initial jobless claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index, may have been the catalyst for that. Tin prices avoided the dip, they headed higher from the opening. This morning, consolidation is underway and given the underlying tails we would not be surprised to see further gains. Key will be whether traders wade in with any volume. Overall, the base metals are likely to remain vulnerable, another large stock increase say in copper, or something similar, could knock the wind out of any emerging bullishness.
Gold prices consolidated recent gains on Thursday and we put that down to profit-taking as the dollar rout halted. Silver prices have followed gold’s lead, while palladium prices are looking weak – we think that is due to weaker auto sales data in the EU. Platinum prices seem to be following gold’s lead, but will also be affected by the health of the auto industry. With political uncertainty in the US still present, we would expect dips in gold and silver prices to be well supported.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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четверг, 18 мая 2017 г.
Gold prices consolidate recent bullish move
FastMarkets
Spot gold is little changed at $1,259.75 per oz this morning, Thursday May 18, silver and platinum prices are down 0.4%, while palladium prices are up 0.3%. Wednesday saw gold prices rise 1.9%, platinum prices were up 0.6%, silver prices were up 0.4%, while palladium prices dipped 1.6% to $782 per oz. The run-up in bullion prices seems mainly driven by political uncertainty in Washington DC.
A weaker tone has returned to the base metals on the London Metal Exchange this morning, with all the metals prices, except tin, lower.
Those that are down, are weaker by an average of 0.7%, lead prices remain the weakest of the complex, with prices down 1.1% at $2,091.50 per tonne, basis three-months, while the rest are down between 0.4% for nickel prices and 0.8% for copper, which was trading at $5,567 per tonne at 06:02 BST. Tin prices are 0.2% firmer at $20,225 per tonne. Volume on the exchange has been average with 5,770 lots traded.
Trading on Wednesday, saw strong gains in tin, where prices closed up 1.5%, and lead where prices were up 1.2%, zinc prices were up 0.4%, while the rest were off between 0.1 and 0.4%.
In Shanghai this morning, most of the base metals trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are weaker, the exception is the 1.1% gain in tin prices. The rest are down by an average of 0.9%, led by a 1.5% fall in nickel prices, while copper prices are down 0.9% at 45,020 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.5% at 44,950-45,150 yuan per tonne, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is slightly easier at 8.09.
September iron ore prices are down 0.4% at 470.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 1.2%, gold prices are up 1.4% and silver prices are up 0.5%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are off slightly at $51.93 per barrel as the market consolidates after recent gains. The yield on the US ten-year treasuries has weakened to 2.24%, again the lower yield, firmer gold and yen, all point to a pick-up in haven demand.
Equities reacted more to the political unease in the USA on Wednesday with the Euro Stoxx 50 and Dow closing down 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, with the Dow closing at 20,606.93. Weakness has followed through to Asia this morning, with the Nikkei off 1.5%, the ASX 200 is down 1%, the Kospi is off 0.4% and the Hang Seng and CSI 300 are both down 0.3%.
The dollar index plunged for a second day on Wednesday, falling to a low of 97.33, it is steadier this morning at 97.61, but the breakdown below the support line does seem to have set a new direction for the dollar, at least for now. The euro has mirrored the dollar’s move, it has reached 1.1172, but is pausing this morning at 1.1142. Sterling is flat at 1.2962, the yen is stronger at 111.27, while the Australian dollar is stronger at 0.7453. Given the political stability in the EU, the instability in the USA and uncertainty over Brexit, we would expect the euro to outshine the pound.
The yuan is holding on to most of its gains, it was recently quoted at 6.8802, but other emerging market (EM) currencies are weaker, suggesting some risk-off and nervousness.
Data out today shows Japan’s preliminary GDP rose 0.5% in the first quarter, from 0.3% in the fourth quarter last year. GDP price index dropped 0.8%, previously it was down 0.1%. Later there is data on UK retail sales, with US data including initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, leading indicators and natural gas storage. In addition, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi is speaking this evening at 6pm BST – see table below for more details.
Tin prices have broken higher, low stocks and tightness in the spread seem to have finally led to a price reaction. The other metals are looking weaker this morning, copper’s and aluminium’s grind higher over the past five trading days appears to have run out of steam, while lead, zinc and nickel prices have been sliding. Last weekend’s announcement by China about infrastructure spending seems to have been the catalyst for the metals’ consolidation/rebounds this week, but the reaction has not been universally bullish, so again it may be a case that the announcement has supported the longer term outlook, but the market needs more evidence of stronger nearby fundamentals. Another large stock increase on Wednesday in LME copper stocks was another cold-water moment for copper bulls. On balance, the base metals remain vulnerable, although tin may be able to trade its own fundamentals.
Gold prices have been leading the rebound in the precious metals sector, silver is following gold’s lead, as is platinum, while palladium has pulled back from high ground. This morning, the recent moves in the precious metals are being consolidated, but political developments in the USA are likely to underpin the rally in gold prices and we would look for dips to be well supported, especially if the dollar continues to weaken.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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среда, 17 мая 2017 г.
LPPM WEEK 2017: Silver fix RFP closes, three parties selected – sources
The tendering process to identify an alternative provider to operate and administer the silver auction process closed on Monday May 15.
Three parties have been selected by the London Bullion Market Assn (LBMA), sources told Metal Bulletin during the annual LPPM Week in London this week. The bidders involved are two exchanges and one fintech company, Metal Bulletin understands.
“Those who submitted responses will be asked to present their submissions, which will be reviewed along with written responses, and following further discussions we would be looking to announce the chosen provider in the summer with an implementation date in the autumn,” the LBMA told Metal Bulletin.
CME Group and Thomson Reuters stepped down from their roles in the LBMA silver price auction in March this year.
CME and Reuters will continue to operate and administer the auction until a new provider is appointed, the LBMA said following the announcement.
CME and Reuters won the battle to provide the methodology and price platform for the daily process in July 2014, replacing the 117-year-old silver fix in August that year under sweeping reforms of the entire precious metals complex.
The silver fix, or benchmark as it is now known, is the global benchmark reference price used by central banks, miners, refiners, jewellers and the surrounding financial industry to settle silver-based contracts.
While some traders continue to use the 24-hourly traded spot price, larger players prefer the snapshot-style daily benchmark to settle bulkier contracts in a traditional over-the-counter (OTC) market.
The price is set every day by seven participants – HSBC, JPMorgan Chase Bank, the Bank of Nova Scotia, Toronto Dominion Bank, UBS, China Construction Bank and Morgan Stanley – using a system that has been run by CME and Thomson Reuters.
Last year, the credibility of the process was damaged after the LBMA Silver Price was set 84 cents below the spot and futures price.
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вторник, 16 мая 2017 г.
Bargain hunting giving gold prices some lift
FastMarkets
Spot precious metals are up an average of 0.4% this morning, Tuesday May 16, gold prices are up 0.2% at $1,233.50 per oz, the rest are all up 0.5%. This comes after a mixed day’s performance on Monday when palladium prices dropped 1.1%, silver and platinum prices were up around 1.1%, and gold prices were up just 0.2%.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are down across the board this morning, with prices down an average of 0.6%.
Lead and zinc prices are off 1.1%, nickel prices are down 0.9% and three month copper prices are off 0.4% at $5,582 per tonne. Volume has been average with 6,109 lots traded as of 06:12 BST.
This follows a generally positive day on Monday that saw prices closed up an average of 0.3%, the average being somewhat dampened by a 1.7% fall in nickel prices, excluding that the average gain would have been 0.6%, led by a 1.2% rise in aluminium prices. Copper closed up 0.7% at $5,606 per tonne.
In Shanghai this morning, copper and aluminium prices are up slightly, with copper prices at 45,220 yuan ($6,555) per tonne, while the rest of the base metals complex are down an average of 0.8%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.1% at 45,120-45320 yuan per tonne, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weaker again at 8.10.
Other metals in China are firmer this morning, September iron ore prices are up 0.8% at 457.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, steel rebar prices are up 0.4%, gold prices are up 0.5% and silver prices are up 0.9%
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.3% at $51.92 per barrel as the market adjusts for a likely Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) extended deal. The yield on the US ten-year treasuries is little changed at around 2.33%.
Equities on Monday were firmer, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.1% and the Dow closed up 0.4% at 20,982. Asia has generally seen follow through buying interest this morning with the Nikkei and ASX 200 up 0.2%, the CSI 300 is up 0.1%, the Kospi is up marginally, while the Hang Seng is bucking the trend with a 0.3% decline.
The dollar index is showing weakness again with the index at 98.75, having seen a recent high of 99.89 – for now the 2017 trend is to the downside, with recent lows at 98.54. The euro is stronger at 1.0994, it looks well placed to push higher, as is the Australian dollar at 0.7425, while the sterling and the yen are flat at 1.2912 and 113.49, respectively.
In emerging market (EM) currencies, the yuan is firmer at 6.8912, as are the other EM currencies we follow, which suggests a slight risk-on bias.
There is a lot of important economic data out today – Japan’s tertiary industry activity slipped 0.2% after a 0.2% climb previously, later there is data on French and UK CPI and a host of other UK price data and leading indicators, Italian and EU GDP, German and EU ZEW economic sentiment and data on the EU trade balance. US data includes: building permits, housing starts, industrial production, capacity utilization rate and mortgage delinquencies – see table below for more details.
Chinese president Xi Jinping’s pledge of $78 billion worth of financing for infrastructure projects, implies the One Belt One Road plan is continuing and that should be long-term supportive for metals’ demand. This buoyed metals on Monday but we wait to see if the market is prepared to get bullish on the strength of it, or is it all too far down the road to be a driver now?
The firmer tone from yesterday seen in most of the metals and from last week in copper, aluminium and nickel, is looking fragile. Nickel started to lose ground yesterday, while copper and aluminium are showing some weakness this morning. Zinc and lead prices are looking more vulnerable, with lead prices this morning setting a fresh low at $2,092 per tonne – a level not seen since early January. Unless buying emerges soon, the path of least resistance looks set to remain to the downside.
Most of the precious metals are firmer, their recent price weakness appears to have prompted bargain hunting, the exception being palladium, where resistance above $820 per oz seems to be acting as a cap and lack of upside progress is encouraging profit-taking. Given our less than bright outlook for global auto demand (EU passenger car registrations fell 6.6% in April, which limited the January-April gain to 4.7%), following a bumper year last year, we would not be surprised if palladium prices consolidate for a while. For the other precious metals we remain mildly bullish, especially for silver and platinum as they have recently looked oversold.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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понедельник, 15 мая 2017 г.
воскресенье, 14 мая 2017 г.
суббота, 13 мая 2017 г.
пятница, 12 мая 2017 г.
четверг, 11 мая 2017 г.
LPPM WEEK 2017: Key talking points ahead of the conference
In May each year, representatives of the platinum and palladium industry gather in London for what has become known as Platinum Week. With this year’s event kicking off on Monday May 15 in London, Metal Bulletin looks at a few of key topics that are influencing the PGM markets.
The divergence between platinum and palladium
Palladium prices have performed far stronger than those of platinum this year, with spot prices at the time of writing at $804/809 per oz, up 17% in the year to date. The metal continues to outperform the rest of the precious metals, setting a fresh 2017 high on May 1 at $830 per oz.
Platinum, meanwhile, last quoted at $913/918 per oz, has been the worst performing precious metal in the year to date, continuing the underwhelming performance of 2016.
“Platinum is acting like a kid out of college drunk and hungover – palladium is the prom queen having all the fun,” Metal Bulletin analyst Andy Farida said.
Tighter supply fundamentals are one of palladium’s strengths, analysts at Scotiabank noted. The market is expected to be in a 600,000 oz deficit this year, compared with a 120,000 oz deficit in platinum. Platinum’s weaknesses include poor demand for jewellery and its loss of market share in autocatalysts, they said.
Palladium’s use is heavily concentrated in the autocatalyst industry, where 70% of palladium is used. This compares with some 34% of platinum used in the auto industry.
Strong vehicle sales in recent years, especially in China and the USA last year, have fuelled demand for palladium.
Meanwhile platinum demand has suffered in recent years because demand for jewellery – which accounts for 36% of platinum usage – has been weak, especially in India and China.
Platinum jewellery demand declined by 12% in 2016 to reach 2.18 million oz (67.7 tonnes). China accounted for the bulk of this loss, according to the latest report by the GFMS team at Thomson Reuters on the PGM markets.
“Platinum’s underperformance compared with gold, to the extent that platinum prices are some $300 per oz below those of gold, has been a negative for platinum jewellery because it has been seen to be a metal that does not keep its value,” Metal Bulletin analyst William Adams noted.
“I think platinum is really confused at the moment,” Farida added. “It is loved and bought during high haven demand – following gold and silver – but at the same time unable to stand on its own two feet as an industrial metal and is losing its shine against palladium. Palladium’s risen stardom I think is on borrowed time – on the assumption that the 2016 economic success will repeat in 2017, which clearly is not the case.”
Will auto sales remain healthy?
Passenger auto sales in the three largest markets – the USA, China and the EU – increased 8.5% last year, but Scotiabank expects sales growth to be far more modest this year.
There are signs that a down cycle in the US automotive market is emerging after a seven-year boom market.
In April, US total vehicle sales were 16.9 million units (mu) annualised, compared with 17.4 mu in April 2016, and an average of 17.5 in 2016 as a whole.
The Chinese auto market now also appears to be faltering, Commerzbank analysts noted.
According to the China Assn of Automobile Manufacturers, 1.72 million cars were sold in China in April, 3.7% less than in the same month last year.
It would appear that the reduction in tax incentives to buy cars is now having an impact on sales figures after all, Commerzbank said. The association believes that the Chinese auto industry has arrived at a critical point that could see it turn negative.
What was palladium’s strength in 2016 may be its Achilles heel this year with the auto industry looking to slow this year, Scotiabank noted.
“More downside from the auto industry is given,” Farida said. “I think reflationary trade has been priced in too far and platinum is a laggard while palladium is high on those stuff – and the nasty surprise is palladium coming crying down in pain.”
New precious contracts
Aside from the fundamentals, the new precious contracts are also likely to be debated during this year’s London meet.
The London Metal Exchange is looking to launch a PGM futures contract in early 2018 after the successful launch of its gold and silver contracts in July this year, the exchange announced during LME Week Asia earlier this week.
The gold and silver contracts will go live on July 10, and PGM futures contracts are planned for early 2018.
The PGM futures contracts are expected to use the same date structure as gold and silver.
As well, the latest announcement by the London Bullion Market Assn (LBMA) that it will publish the precious metals holdings in London vaults in a transparency push will likely be discussed at this year’s event.
The gold and silver holdings will be published from this summer while platinum and palladium holdings will come at a later date.
Who will be the new provider to operate and administer the LBMA silver price auction after CME Group and Thomson Reuters stepped down from their roles earlier this year is another theme that will likely dominate discussions next week.
CME and Thomson Reuters won the battle to provide the methodology and price platform for the daily process in July 2014, replacing the 117-year-old silver fix in August that year under sweeping reforms of the entire precious metals complex.
The silver fix or benchmark, as it is now known, is the global benchmark reference price used by central banks, miners, refiners, jewellers and the surrounding financial industry to settle silver-based contracts.
The LME, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and Autilla are widely believed to be submitting proposals to become the new silver fix provider.
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Palladium and platinum prices lead on the upside
Palladium prices lead on the upside this morning with gains of 1% taking spot prices to $801.70 per oz, platinum prices are up 0.8%, silver prices are up 0.6% and gold prices are up 0.3% at $1,211.90 per oz. This comes after a generally weak performance on Wednesday, when gold, silver and palladium prices were down 0.3% on average but platinum bucked the trend with a 0.4% rise.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are up by an average of 0.2% this morning, Thursday May 11, ranged between up 0.2% for aluminium and down 0.7% for nickel – three-month copper prices are up 0.5% at $5,537 per tonne. Volume has been average with 5,493 lots traded as of 07:01 BST.
This follows a split day on Wednesday that saw lead prices up 1%, tin and copper prices little changed, while aluminium, zinc and nickel were down between 0.3 and 0.9%.
In Shanghai this morning, zinc and lead prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are up 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively, copper and aluminium are off slightly with losses of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, with copper at 44,900 yuan per tonne, while nickel and tin prices are both down 0.8%.
The LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weaker at 8.114. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up slightly at 44,890-45,040 yuan per tonne.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices remain under pressure with prices down 3.9% at 452.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down 2.3%, gold prices are up 0.1% and silver prices are up 0.5%
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.4% at $50.47 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries is firmer at around 2.40%.
Equities on Wednesday were slightly weaker, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.1% and the Dow closed down 0.2% at 20,943. But, Asia this morning is more upbeat, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng up 0.3%, the Kospi is up 1.1%, the ASX 200 is up 0.1% and CSI 300 is little changed.
The dollar index got some lift on Monday May 8, and follow through firmness has taken it to 99.58 this morning. Conversely, the euro is off recent highs, it was recently quoted at 1.0878, the sterling is flat at 1.2948, as is the yen at 114.13 and the Australian dollar is rebounding – last at 0.7634, having been as low as 0.7328 in recent days.
In emerging market (EM) currencies, the yuan is firmer at 6.9088, while all the other EM currencies we follow are firmer too having seen some slight weakness in recent days.
The economic agenda is busy today, Japan’s bank lending held steady at 3%, economic watchers sentiment climbed to 48.1 from 47.4 previously, German WPI climbed 0.3%, having been flat, later there is an ECB economic bulletin and EU economic forecast, a string of UK manufacturing, industrial, construction and trade data, plus the Bank of England’s rate decision, latest money policy statement and there is also a UK GDP forecast, with US data including PPI, initial jobless claims and natural gas storage. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Willian Dudley is speaking – see table below for more details.
The base metals are trying for higher this morning, but they remain in downward trends and therefore there is a danger that these rally attempts run into further selling. That said, after a drawn out pullback at some stage bargain hunting may be more plentiful than further selling, so we wait to see how far and how long the firmer trend lasts. A firmer oil price may well help give the impression that the commodity complex is turning a corner again.
The slide in gold and silver prices may also have run their course as prices are getting some lift, platinum prices also appear to have found a base and palladium prices, that have managed to hold up well anyway, are edging higher again too. In the current climate we are not overly bullish on gold prices, but the prices pullback of late may well be enough to prompt bargain hunting, which may be enough to give prices some lift.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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среда, 10 мая 2017 г.
вторник, 9 мая 2017 г.
понедельник, 8 мая 2017 г.
Gold prices hold up well, dollar weakness helping
FastMarkets
Precious metals prices are firmer this morning, Monday May 8, with prices up an average of 0.5%, but the gains are with the more industrial precious metals, with silver and the PGMs up an average of 0.7%, while gold prices are little changed at $1,230.67 per oz. The PGMs prices were also firmer on Friday, they closed up 1.2%, while bullion prices were little change.
Base metals prices are weaker again this morning, with prices down an average of 0.9% on the London Metal Exchange.
Zinc, nickel and copper prices lead the declines with losses of 1.7%, 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively, with three-month copper prices at $5,519 per tonne. Lead prices are down 0.8%, aluminium is off 0.2% and tin is up 0.1%. Volume has been above average with 9,103 lots traded as of 06:32 BST.
This morning’s weakness came after a mixed day on Friday, May 5, when aluminium, lead and tin prices were down between 0.7% and 0.9%, while nickel prices bounced 1.5% and copper and zinc prices were up 0.8%. Concerns over liquidity squeezes in China seem to be the main driving force.
Shanghai Futures Exchange metal prices are mostly weaker this morning, the exception is nickel where prices are up 0.1%, while the rest of the base metals complex are weaker with copper prices off 0.3% at 44,870 yuan per tonne, while the rest are down between 0.9% and 1.2%. The LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is slightly weaker at 8.12. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are little changed at 44,980-45,280 yuan per tonne, their relative strength compared with the futures highlighting that copper prices initially held up when trading got underway this morning, but since spot prices were set, the futures have weakened.
In other metals in China, the slide in September iron ore prices has slowed, it is off just 0.3% at 466 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 0.3%, gold prices are up 0.1% and silver prices are up 0.7%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.7% at $49.74 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries is firmer at around 2.36%.
Equities on Friday saw the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.9% and the good employment report boosted US equities with the Dow closing up 0.3% at 21,007. In Asia this morning, equities are for the most part stronger with the Nikkei up 2.4%, the Kospi is up 1.6%, the Hang Seng and ASX 200 are up 0.5%, while the CSI 300 is off 1.1%.
The dollar index remains on a back footing at 98.60, even the better than expected US employment report did not provide lift. The low on Friday was 98.54. The combination of weak dollar-based metals prices and a weak dollar will make metals prices even cheaper in local currencies. Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French election has boosted the euro, which was recently quoted at 1.0988. Sterling is strong at 1.2966, the Australian dollar at 0.7412 is running into dip-buying, while the yen is weak at 112.76.
In emerging market (EM) currencies, the yuan is weaker at 6.9017, while most of the other EM currencies we follow are fairly flat, albeit in high ground.
China’s trade data in dollar terms showed exports climbed 8% and imports were up 11%, both were below the gains seen in March, but still stronger than a year ago and suggests the global economy is still strengthening. Japan’s consumer confidence slipped to 43.2 from 43.9, German factory orders rose 1% and later there is data on UK house prices, EU Sentix investor confidence, US labour market conditions and a US loan survey – see table below for more details.
The base metals remain under pressure and prices are vulnerable as support levels have either been breached, as in the case of nickel and copper, or are being tested. We would expect bouts of dip-buying into this weakness, especially as the dollar is weaker too, but with continuing concerns about liquidity issues in China, prices may still have further to correct. We are not overly bearish on the outlook for global growth and see this weakness as coming from stale long liquidation following the rally when prices ran ahead of the fundamentals during the Trump reflation trade. As such, we would be on the lookout for buying opportunities, but not be in any hurry to buy yet.
Haven demand in the run up to the French election has probably already been unwound over the past few weeks, so we are not too surprised that gold prices are not selling off further this morning. However, with the political scene in Europe now more stable, apart from continuing uncertainty about Brexit, equity prices may have further to rise and that could raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. That said, the weaker dollar, combined with some signs of a pick-up in India’s demand for jewellery, may help underpin gold prices. The sell-offs in silver and platinum prices also appears to have halted so bargain hunting may appear.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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воскресенье, 7 мая 2017 г.
пятница, 5 мая 2017 г.
Gold prices find some support as dollar looks weaker
FastMarkets
Precious metals prices are firmer this morning, Friday May 5, with prices up average of 0.6%, gold prices are at around $1,233.20 per oz, this follows a mixed day’s performance on Thursday that saw gold and silver prices fall around 0.9%, while the PGMs were up 0.6%. Spot gold prices set a low at $1,225.75 per oz.
Base metals prices are generally consolidating this morning after setting fresh lows intraday on Thursday.
Prices are down an average of 0.2% this morning, copper is up 0.2% at $5,552 per tonne, while the rest are lower by between 0.1% for aluminium and 0.4% for nickel – with the latter the only price trading below Thursday’s range. Volume has been above average with 6,639 lots traded as of 06:58 BST.
This follows another weak day on Thursday when prices closed down an average of 0.6%, but most of the weakness was seen in nickel prices that dropped 2.4% and copper prices that closed down 0.9% at $5,540.50, having earlier set a low at $5,594 per tonne.
Shanghai Futures Exchange metal prices are mixed this morning with prices down an average of 0.6%, but that is skewed by a 2.8% fall in nickel prices and a 1% drop in copper prices to 45,090 yuan per tonne. Zinc prices are down 0.5%, while the others have eked out gains with lead prices up 0.2% and aluminium up 0.5%, tin prices are little changed. The LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio was around 8.15 on Thursday and at times during the day the arb window was open, the ratio is slightly easier at 8.13 this morning. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are off 0.9% at 45,170-45,290 yuan per tonne.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices continue to fall, they are down 6.7% to 465.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while on SHFE steel rebar prices are down 3.2%, gold prices are off 0.8% and silver is down 2%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down 1.6% at $47.51 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries is around 2.34%.
Equities on Thursday saw the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 1.2% but the Dow ended little changed at 20,951. In Asia this morning, equities are weaker with the Hang Seng off 1%, the CSI 300 is down 0.9%, the ASX 200 is down 0.7%, while the Kospi and Nikkei are closed. Perhaps the weakness in metals, now that oil prices have weakened, is starting to impact equities.
The dollar index weakened on Thursday, reversing the post US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gains from Wednesday evening. The index at 98.75 is poised just above recent lows at 98.69 and looks in danger of breaking lower. This, despite firmer bond yields. A weaker dollar could start to underpin commodity prices. The euro is firm at 1.0976, as is the sterling at 1.2934, the yen is consolidating at 112.22, while the Australian dollar is weaker at 0.7392 dragged down by weaker commodity prices, especially iron ore.
In emerging market (EM) currencies, the yuan is flat at 6.8961, while most of the other EM currencies we follow are weaker, which may well signal a slight pick-up in broad market concern.
The economic agenda will be focused on the US employment report, non-farm employment is expected to rise 194,000, after a disappointing 98,000 jobs were created in March. Before that there is data on EU retail PMI. With the market concerned about a slowdown in the US economy any disappointment in the data could set-off some risk-off trading, especially as weaker commodity prices are also signalling weakness. US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, and FOMC member Charles Evans are speaking this evening – see table below for more details.
The correction in the base metals continues, copper prices have joined nickel in breaking below recent, important, support levels so the question is will the others follow? With oil, iron ore and steel prices, also falling heavily, the path of least resistance is to the downside for now. We are not overly bearish on the outlook for global growth; some metals’ fundamentals have potentially changed, i.e. in nickel with regards to supply from the Philippines, but we generally see this weakness as coming from stale long liquidation following the rally when prices ran ahead of the fundamentals during the Trump reflation trade.
If equities catch the cold that commodities are suffering, then we could be in for a period of broad market price weakness, but that may be supportive for gold prices, especially if the dollar breaks lower too. The more industrial precious metals may, however, struggle.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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четверг, 4 мая 2017 г.
среда, 3 мая 2017 г.
Gold prices remain under pressure as geopolitical tensions ease
FastMarkets
Base metals prices are down an average of 0.7% on the London Metal Exchange this morning, Wednesday May 3, with zinc, copper and lead prices down around 1%, with three-month copper prices at $5,751 per tonne, while aluminium and nickel prices are off around 0.5% and tin prices are down 0.2%. Volume has been light with 3,907 lots traded as of 06:20 BST.
This comes after a 1.2% average gain on Tuesday that saw a 2.1% rise in nickel prices and a 1.6% gain in copper prices.
The precious metals are for the most part little changed this morning with gold prices off 0.1% at $1,255.60 per oz, the main mover being palladium that is up 0.4% at $819.30 per oz. Palladium prices also climbed 0.4% on Tuesday, while the rest of the precious metals complex dropped an average of 1.6%.
Metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are down across the board with losses averaging 1.1%, led by a 2% drop in zinc prices. Copper prices are down 0.7% at 46,550 yuan per tonne.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang are off 0.5% at 46,520-46,720 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is trading at around 8.10.
In other metals in China, gold and silver prices on the SHFE are little changed, while steel rebar prices are down 0.8% and September iron ore futures are down 1.3% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down 0.5% at $50.85 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has eased to 2.28%.
A slight cooling in geopolitical tensions as kept equities buoyant with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.5% on Tuesday, while the Dow closed up 0.2%. Asia is generally weaker this morning with the CSI 300 down 0.3% and the ASX 200 is off 1%. Markets in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea are closed for public holidays.
The dollar index at 99.00 is flat in low ground as the market consolidated ahead to this evening’s US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision and FOMC statement. The market is not expecting a rate rise, but is on tenterhooks in case the Fed elaborates on reducing its balance sheet. The euro at 1.0927 is poised just below recent highs with its focus on France’s second election vote on Sunday May 7, the sterling is holding up well at 1.2909, the yen is weakening at 112.09 and the Australian dollar is treading water at 0.7507.
In emerging market (EM) currencies, the yuan is flat at 6.8914 and most other EM currencies we follow are on a front footing, especially the ringgit, suggesting a degree of confidence/risk-on in the broader markets.
Last night US total vehicles sales data showed sales were running at an annualised rate of 16.9 million units (mu) in April, which was below an expected 17.1 mu, but above March’s 16.6 mu. Today, there is unemployment data out in Spain and Germany, plus UK construction PMI, EU GDP and PPI, with US data including ADP non-farm employment change, services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, crude oil inventories and then the FOMC decision and announcement at 7pm BST.
The early run up in LME prices on Tuesday faltered in the cases of copper, lead and zinc, while aluminium, nickel and tin held on to some of their price gains. As such, underlying sentiment does not seem unified at the moment and the mixed bag of manufacturing PMI data out on Tuesday has raised some doubt over how strong the underlying global economy is. Given this, it seems unlikely that consumers will feel the need to chase prices higher, so we would look for more consolidation, although bouts of tightness in the some of the metals could lead to short-covering.
Gold prices continue to retreat and with the yen also weakening it does look as though demand for havens has waned. This could accelerate if there is no shock in the French election and if tensions between the USA and North Korea calm down. Silver and platinum are looking weaker too, while palladium is off its highs, but remains strong overall – whether a slower auto markets starts to weigh on palladium prices remains to be seen.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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вторник, 2 мая 2017 г.
Gold prices under pressure as demand for safe haven wanes
FastMarkets
There is price weakness across the board in the precious metals this morning, Tuesday May 2, with spot prices down between 1% for gold and 1.7% for silver.
Three-month base metals prices are up an average of 0.5% on the London Metal Exchange this morning, with aluminium and lead prices slightly weaker while the rest are up between 0.3% for tin prices and 1.4% for zinc prices, with copper prices up 0.7% at $5,777 per tonne.
This comes after a 0.5% average gain on Friday, April 28.
Metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are for the most part higher this morning, the exception is aluminium, where prices are down 1.3%, while the rest are up an average of 1.9%, led by a 2.6% gain in zinc prices, with copper prices up 1.1% at 46,730 yuan per tonne. Given poor Chinese manufacturing PMI data, that dropped to 50.3 from 51.2, it is surprising metals have climbed as well as they have.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 1.4% at 46,820-46,970 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weaker, trading at around 8.09.
In other metals in China, September iron ore futures are up 3.9% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 1.9% and gold and silver prices are weaker by 0.7% and 1.8%, respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down 1% at $51.31 per barrel and the yield on the US ten-year treasuries has climbed to 2.32%.
The Dow closed slightly weaker on Monday at 20,913. In Asia this morning, the Nikkei and Kospi are both up 0.6%, the CSI 300 is off 0.5%, the ASX 200 is off 0.3% and the Hang Seng little changed.
The dollar index at 99.05 has halted its slide but it is not getting any lift with prices consolidating. There is resistance at 99.33 and a gap up to 99.89. The euro at 1.0920 is holding below recent highs, as is sterling at 1.2897, the yen is weaker at 112.06, while the Australian dollar is firmer at 0.7533.
In emerging market (EM) currencies, the yuan is little changed at 6.8963, the peso is strengthening again as is the ringgit, while the rest are little changed.
In addition to the Chinese PMI data, Bank of Japan core CPI fell 0.1%, later there is manufacturing PMI data out across Europe, plus there is data on Italian and EU unemployment and US total vehicle sales.
Most of the base metals spiked higher this morning but some selling seems to be taking advantage of the higher prices with prices giving back some of the early gains. This may well be on the back of the weaker than expected Chinese PMI data. On balance, the tone across most of the complex is firmer, the exception is aluminium where prices are weaker, but that said, aluminium has been by far the strongest metal this year, so this current weakness is relative.
Chinese PMI data is an issue, it helps explain the overall sluggish start to the seasonally stronger second quarter – we wait to see what European PMI data holds.
Gold prices are retreating and with the yen also weakening it does look as though demand for havens has waned. President Donald Trump’s offer to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in appropriate circumstances, may have eased tensions somewhat. Silver and platinum are looking weaker too, while palladium is off its highs, but remains strong overall.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
The post Gold prices under pressure as demand for safe haven wanes appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
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