пятница, 30 сентября 2016 г.
Copper up on China data, gold gains on Deutsche concerns
Copper futures pushed modestly higher on Friday amid data indicating that China’s manufacturing sector has steadied in recent months.
Copper for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was last up 0.7 cents at $2.197 per ounce. Trade has ranged from $2.1805 to $2.20.
“Copper’s correction appears to have run its course and buying has returned in recent weeks. Given the short-selling of late, there may be room for short-covering as well as bargain hunting now that the summer lull has passed,” William Adams, FastMarkets head of research, noted.
In data, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for September at 50.1 was as expected and close to August’s reading of 50. A reading above 50 reading signifies expansion.
“The readings for the manufacturing PMI over the past three months seem to indicate that the economy has begun to stabilize,” Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, said. “But given that the growth rate of fiscal income has slowed recently, while expenditures have swung, there is insufficient momentum to drive future economic growth, and there is a risk that industrial output may decline.”
Earlier, the EU CPI flash estimate was as expected at 0.4 percent but the core CPI flash estimate undershot at 0.8 percent and the EU unemployment rate at 10.1 percent also disappointed.
The core PCE price index, personal spending, personal income, the Chicago PMI, revised UoM consumer sentiment and revised UoM inflation expectations.
In warehousing data, Shanghai bonded copper stocks hit a seven-month low at 528,000-558,000 tonnes from 560,000-590,000 tonnes a month previously, according to FastMarkets’ survey of multiple warehouse companies.
The brief opening of the arbitrage window between the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) was the main driver of the month-on-month decrease, several sources said.
Spot premiums in Shanghai have also increased to $55-65 per tonne this week from $40-50 at the end of August, according to FastMarkets historical data.
“With the LME/Shanghai copper arb close to being open and with copper prices and metals prices generally looking more upbeat, along with economic data in China, perhaps the flow of copper will reverse and metal will head back to China,” FastMarkets’ Adams said.
In the wider-markets, the dollar was 0.49 percent stronger at 1.1167 against the euro, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 were down 0.70 percent and 1.17 percent respectively, as many big Deutsche Bank clients shifted their assets amid concerns over the banks stability.
As for the precious metals, the December Comex gold was up $1.10 at $1,327.10 per ounce, while the most-active Comex silver was up 18.7 cents at $19.375 per ounce.
“The problems attendant to the Deutsche Bank have to be supportive of gold,” Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, said. “We draw attention firstly to the fact that the barometer of fear in the capital markets – the euro/Swiss franc cross – has moved very sharply in the franc’s favour.”
“Capital is leaving ‘Europe’ and is looking for a home and that first home is either Zurich, or Lugano, or Geneva or Basel et al. The second home almost certainly shall be gold,” he added.
(Additional reporting by Vicky Chen, editing by xx)
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Gold price edges higher but stronger dollar caps gains
Gold was trading higher on Friday morning in London but gains are being capped by a stronger dollar.
– The spot gold price was last at $1,325.85/1,326.15 per ounce, up $4 on Thursday’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,321.05 to $1,327.05 so far.
– The dollar index was last at a higher 95.73 and has been on an upward trend since bottoming out in May, Joshua Mahoney, a market analyst at IG, said. “Despite a slowdown in this resurgence, we have not yet seen anything to say this rally is over. As long as we do not see an hourly close below 94.11, there is reason to believe the dollar will continue to perform over the coming months,” he said.
– In the other precious metals, silver was last at $19.255/19.275, up 15 cents. Platinum at $1,030/1,035 was $7 higher and palladium at $714/723 was up $3.50.
– “Stronger oil prices gave gold some lift yesterday but not much. Prices are for the most part moving sideways; while they do so, the risk of stale long liquidation remains,” William Adams, FastMarkets head of research, said. “Silver is following gold’s lead, albeit in a more volatile manner, platinum is staying in the low ground and palladium is bucking the trend – prices looking set to challenge the July highs of $747.50, with the highest close then at $725.”
(Editing by Mark Shaw)
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четверг, 29 сентября 2016 г.
Metals consolidate recent gains ahead of a day of data
- China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI – Actual 50.1, Expected 50.1, Previous 50.0
Metals were diverse yesterday with nickel prices slipping 2.7 percent to $10,410, while lead continued its rally with a three percent rise to $2,065, zinc was up 0.9 percent, aluminium was up 0.5 percent, with tin 0.4 percent higher and copper was off 0.1 percent at $4,825. Precious metals were mixed yesterday with gold prices unchanged at $1,322, silver was off 0.5 percent, platinum was off 0.1 percent, but palladium remained firm, rising 0.8 percent to $715.
This morning, the base metals remain mixed, zinc and aluminium are off 0.4 percent, lead and copper are off 0.1 percent with copper at $4,821, nickel is up 0.3 percent at $10,445 and tin is up 0.2 percent at $20,030 – setting a fresh high for the year.
In Shanghai most of the metals are weaker this morning, the exception is lead that is up 1.9 percent and tin that is up slightly, but the rest are down between 0.1 percent for zinc and 1.9 percent for nickel, while copper is down 0.4 percent at Rmb 37,610. Spot copper in Changjiang is off 0.5 percent at Rmb 37,800-37,920, the spread has widened to an equivalent of $46 per tonne back and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 7.80. The SHFE will be closed next week and will reopen on Monday October 10.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices in Dalian dropped three percent, which may well be profit-taking ahead of the week long holiday, steel rebar is off 2.3 percent, while gold and silver prices are off 0.1 percent.
Equities – the Euro Stoxx 50 closed little changed yesterday, but the Dow ended the day down 1.1 percent as some good data increased the likelihood of the Fed raising rates this year. Asia this morning is generally weaker, the Nikkei is down 1.4 percent, the Hang Seng is off 1.3 percent, the ASX 200 is down 0.4 percent, the Kospi is off one percent while the CSI 300 is up 0.4 percent. Profit-taking for quarter-end seems to be one of the dampeners, along with some weak Japanese data and concerns about Deutsche Bank.
In FX, the dollar index is flat at 95.53, as are the euro at 1.1218, sterling at 1.2973, the yen at 101.15, while the aussie is slightly weaker at 0.7631. The yuan is last at 6.6697, the rupiah is weakening after recent strength and other emerging market currencies are on a back footing, although the rouble is looking firmer at 63.04.
The economic diary is busy today, Japan’s industrial production climbed 1.5 percent, which was better than expected, but there was a host of other data out that looked weak – see table below. China’s Caixin PMI came out slightly better than expected, it was originally scheduled to come out tomorrow – the official PMI data is still scheduled to come out tomorrow. Data out later includes: German retail sales, UK house prices, French CPI and consumer spending, Italian unemployment rate, UK GDP, current account, EU and Italian CPI, EU unemployment rate, with US data including personal spending, income and PCE prices, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
Lead and tin continue to push higher with lead seeming to be playing catch-up, copper, aluminium and zinc are consolidating recent gains and are pausing ahead of former resistance levels, while nickel has run into some selling ahead of its August peak. With China closed next week trading is likely to quieten down, although thinner trading conditions could increase price volatility. China’s official PMI, out tomorrow, may well set the next direction, we continue to favour the upside.
Gold prices got some lift on the stronger oil prices yesterday, but not much, prices are for the most part moving sideways and while they do so the risk of stale long liquidation remains. Silver is following gold’s lead, albeit in a more volatile manner, platinum is staying in low ground, while palladium is bucking the trend with prices looking set to challenge the July highs that were at $747.50, with the highest close then at $725.
| Overnight Performance | ||||
| BST | 06:01 | +/- | +/- % | Lots |
| Cu | 4821 | -4 | -0.1% | 975 |
| Al | 1661.5 | -7 | -0.4% | 875 |
| Ni | 10445 | 35 | 0.3% | 832 |
| Zn | 2345.5 | -9.5 | -0.4% | 812 |
| Pb | 2062 | -3 | -0.1% | 339 |
| Sn | 20030 | 30 | 0.2% | 9 |
| Average | -0.1% | 3,842 | ||
| Gold | 1323.53 | 1.53 | 0.1% | |
| Silver | 19.105 | -0.005 | 0.0% | |
| Platinum | 1029.2 | 4.2 | 0.4% | |
| Palladium | 718 | 3 | 0.4% | |
| Average PM | 0.2% | |||
| SHFE Prices 06:01 BST | RMB | Change | % Change |
| Cu | 37610 | -140 | -0.4% |
| AL | 12460 | -100 | -0.8% |
| Zn | 18170 | -10 | -0.1% |
| Pb | 15245 | 285 | 1.9% |
| Ni | 81070 | -1560 | -1.9% |
| Sn | 128570 | 40 | 0.0% |
| Average change (base metals) | 0 | -0.2% | |
| Rebar | 2254 | -52 | -2.3% |
| Au | 284.9 | -0.3 | -0.1% |
| Ag | 4269 | -3 | -0.1% |
| Economic Agenda | |||||
| BST | Country | Data | Actual | Expected | Previous |
| 12:01am | UK |
GfK Consumer Confidence
|
-1 | -5 | -7 |
| 12:30am | Japan |
Household Spending y/y
|
-4.6% | -2.1% | -0.5% |
| 12:30am | Japan |
Tokyo Core CPI y/y
|
-0.5% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 12:30am | Japan |
National Core CPI y/y
|
-0.5% | -0.4% | -0.5% |
| 12:30am | Japan |
Unemployment Rate
|
3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 12:50am | Japan |
BOJ Summary of Opinions
|
|||
| 12:50am | Japan |
Prelim Industrial Production m/m
|
1.5% | 0.5% | -0.4% |
| 1:00am | Japan |
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
|
|||
| 2:45am | China |
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
|
50.1 | 50.1 | 50 |
| 6:00am | Japan |
BOJ Core CPI y/y
|
0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| 6:00am | Japan |
Housing Starts y/y
|
2.5% | 7.3% | 8.9% |
| 7:00am | Germany |
German Retail Sales m/m
|
-0.2% | 1.7% | |
| 7:00am | UK |
Nationwide HPI m/m
|
0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 7:45am | France |
French Consumer Spending m/m
|
0.4% | -0.2% | |
| 7:45am | France |
French Prelim CPI m/m
|
-0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9:00am | Italy |
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
|
11.4% | 11.4% | |
| 9:30am | UK |
Current Account
|
-30.5B | -32.6B | |
| 9:30am | UK |
Final GDP q/q
|
0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 9:30am | UK |
Index of Services 3m/3m
|
0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 9:30am | UK |
Revised Business Investment q/q
|
0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 10:00am | EU |
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
|
0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 10:00am | EU |
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
|
0.9% | 0.8% | |
| 10:00am | Italy |
Italian Prelim CPI m/m
|
-0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 10:00am | EU |
Unemployment Rate
|
10.0% | 10.1% | |
| 1:30pm | US |
Core PCE Price Index m/m
|
0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 1:30pm | US |
Personal Spending m/m
|
0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 1:30pm | US |
Personal Income m/m
|
0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 2:45pm | US |
Chicago PMI
|
52.1 | 51.5 | |
| 3:00pm | US |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
|
90.1 | 89.8 | |
| 3:00pm | US |
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
|
2.3% | ||
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Gold supported by safe haven buying but capped by stronger US dollar
The spot gold price drifted during Asian trading hours on Friday supported by safe haven buying but capped by a stronger US dollar.
Spot gold was last at $1,322.35-1,322.75 per ounce, up just $0.55 from Thursday’s close. Trading ranged at $1,321.05-1,324.80 so far.
“Further ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US presidential elections and more recently, the Deutsche Bank issue, should province an underlying bid for the metal,” MKS Group said on Friday morning.
Some Deutsche Bank clients, among them several big hedge funds, have withdrawn securities or cash from the German lender amid concerns about its stability and their exposure, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
Safe haven asset buying was heightened in global markets due to anxiety over Deutsche Bank’s finances, ANZ Research said Friday morning.
In currencies, the US dollar index rose 0.1 percent to 95.61 so far on Friday.
“Since bottoming out in May, the dollar index has been in its ascendancy. Despite a slowdown in this resurgence, we have not yet seen anything to say this rally is over,” Joshua Mahoney, a market analyst at IG.
“As long as we do not see an hourly close below 94.11, there is reason to believe the dollar will continue to perform over the coming months,” he said.
In data, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for September came in 50.1, within expectations and close to August’s reading of 50.0. An above 50 reading signifies expansion, and below, contraction.
Having stagnated in August, Chinese manufacturers signalled little-change to overall operating conditions during September, Caixin Insight Group said.
On a positive note, output and total new orders continued to expand, albeit marginally, while firms raised their purchasing activity for the third month in a row, it added.
“The readings for the manufacturing PMI over the past three months seem to indicate that the economy has begun to stabilise, Zhong Zhengsheng, director of macroeconomic analysts at CEBM Group, said.
“But given that the growth rate of fiscal income has slowed recently while expenditures have swung, there is insufficient momentum to drive future economic growth, and there is a risk that industrial output may decline,” he cautioned.
On Saturday, China will release its official manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI for September. A figure of 50.5, close to August’s 50.4, is called for.
The official PMI is more focused on large state-owned firms, while the independently surveyed Caixin PMI is closely watched for conditions among the country’s private sector.
In other commodities, crude oil prices remained supported by the initial production cut deal agreed among OPEC producers in Algiers, Algeria on Wednesday. The deal could possibly be formalised in November.
The Brent crude oil spot price hit another fresh three-week high of $49.80 per barrel on Friday – it was last at $49.41, down 0.37 percent from Thursday’s close. The Texas light sweet crude oil spot price was recently at $47.53, down 0.48 percent on Friday after touching a five-week high of $48.28 a day ago.
In US data released on Thursday, second quarter final GDP growth came in at 1.4 percent quarter-on-quarter, slightly better than expectations of 1.3 percent. Weekly unemployment claims for last week was also better than expected at 254,000, against a forecast of 260,000.
Pending home sales for August, however, fell 2.4 percent month-on-month – a 0.1 percent decline was called for.
Other US data due later on Friday includes the Core PCE price index, personal spending, personal income, Chicago PMI, revised UoM consumer sentiment and revised UoM inflation expectations.
In equities, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.14 percent to 3,002.81 recently on Friday.
In other precious metals, silver was last at $19.08/19.10, down $0.025. Platinum rose $2 to $1,024/1,031, and palladium increased $2 to $713/721 recently on Friday.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for December delivery was last unchanged at 287.50 yuan per gram, and the December silver was flat at 4,275 yuan per kilogram.
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Copper rally capped by stocks rise in New Orleans; gold steady
Copper futures in the US made a small gain on Thursday morning but an increase in warehouse inventories in New Orleans could indicate that physical demand might be lacklustre.
Copper for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was last up 0.45 cents at $2.1920 per pound. Trade has ranged from $2.1815 to $2.2055.
“We remain cautious [on copper] over the next three-six months because we feel the current buying pressure might not enough to tighten the global supply/demand balance sufficiently, especially because of stronger global supply,” FastMarkets analyst Boris Mikanikrezai noted.
But in some copper-supportive news, BHP was forced to suspend operations at its Olympic Dam copper-gold mine in Australia due to a power outage. It is not yet certain when production can restart.
But a climb in London Metal Exchange copper stocks took the steam out of any perspective rally. Inventories increased a net 10,100 tonnes to 379,175 tonnes – a move centred on New Orleans, where inventories climbed 7,075 tonnes to 46,675 tonnes. Still, Asia stocks also rose – up 2,775 tonnes and 2,025 tonnes respectively in listed warehouses in Busan and Port Klang.
“The third quarter was particularly weak [in the US] – there just aren’t many buyers on the consumer side at the moment. I wouldn’t be surprised to see move deliveries [into exchange warehouses],” a US trader recently told FastMarkets.
In wider markets, the dollar was 0.11 percent stronger at 1.1206 against the euro while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 were up 0.4 percent and 0.7 percent respectively.
On the data calendar, US initial jobless claims inched up 3,000 to 254,000 but this was better than the 260,000 expected and the 82nd consecutive week below 300,000.
As for the precious metals this morning, Comex gold for December delivery was last down $1.30 or 0.1 percent at $1,321.90 per ounce while the most active Comex silver contract was at $19.095, down 4.1 cents or 0.21 percent.
“To turn gold higher and to change the psychology of the market we shall soon need to see spot gold trading upward through $1,350 and presently there is very little to suggest a fundamental turn of events that shall precipitate that strength,” Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, said.
“We shall remain long of gold but shall be wholly unwilling to be longer of it than we are presently. After several years of holding the same position we need real strength to lift us from our stupor,” he added.
(Editing by Mark Shaw)
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Gold consolidates, OPEC deal may aid prices
Gold was consolidating on Thursday morning in London, rebounding off Wednesday’s weekly low below $1,320.
– The spot gold price was last at $1,321.65/1,322.05 per ounce, little changed from the previous close. Trade has ranged from $1,320.35 to $1,325.88 so far.
– “Gold is consolidating because of a reduced safe-haven bid in a risk-on environment and Fed hawkishness, which is pushing the dollar and US real rates higher,” FastMarkets analyst Boris Mikanikrezai said. “At the same time, the technical picture remains healthy, with prices above the 100 and 200 DMAs. So we are willing to keep our constructive view intact. But a sudden break below the 100 DMA and, more importantly, $1,300 would force us to reassess.”
– As well, stronger oil prices are providing support. Crude oil prices surged to three-week highs following reports that OPEC members have reached an initial deal to cut oil output – spot Brent crude price reached $49.07 per barrel.
– “Oil and gold tend to be positively correlated and while the two generally move in sync the relationship is stronger at some times than at others,” HSBC’s James Steel said. “The early reports of an OPEC agreement to limit oil output, if it drives oil up further in the coming days, may have a more marked impact on gold.”
– Last night, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s remarks on monetary policy outlook during her testimony at the Committee on Financial Services were in line with the Federal Open Market Committee’s message in September.
– While the Fed has not given a fixed timetable for rate rises, most FOMC members expect a move this year, ANZ Research said. “The market will not move to seriously price that possibility in until the US election [on November 8] is out of the way,” the bank said.
– In the other precious metals, silver was little changed at $19.120/19.140 per ounce. Platinum at $1,023/1,033 was up $2 and palladium edged $1.50 higher to $708/713.
(Editing by Mark Shaw)
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среда, 28 сентября 2016 г.
Metals looking more bullish, oil deal helping
The industrial metals are looking bullish, a last minute agreement to cut oil prices by OPEC has given commodities a boost. Yesterday, the base metals climbed an average of one percent led by a 2.3 percent run up in lead to $2,004 – a new high for the year, zinc was up 1.3 percent, copper was up 0.7 percent, while nickel was little changed at $10,700. Precious metals were weak initially but got some lift on the back of the oil agreement, they closed up an average of 0.4 percent, led by a 1.7 percent rise in palladium to $709, platinum and silver closed up 0.1 and 0.2 percent respectively and gold closed off 0.4 percent at $1,322.20, having been as low as $1,308.40.
This morning the base metals are up an average of 0.6 percent with most up between 0.5 percent for zinc and 0.8 percent for aluminium and nickel. Copper is up 0.6 percent at $4,858, while tin lags with a one percent gain to $19,950, which is, however, the highest prices have been all year. Volume has been stronger with 7,147 lots traded, with good volume seen in copper, aluminium nickel and zinc, see table below for more details.
Precious metals are up 0.5 percent on average this morning, led by palladium that is up one percent to $716.10, platinum is up 0.5 percent and silver and gold prices are up 0.2 percent with gold at $1,324.90.
In Shanghai, the base metals are all in positive territory, up an average of 1.6 percent, led by a 2.4 percent rise in lead, followed by a two percent rise in tin, while the rest are up between 1.1 for zinc and 1.5 percent for aluminium. Copper is up 1.2 percent at Rmb 37,880. Spot copper in Changjiang is up 1.1 percent at Rmb 37,900-38,100, the spread is at an equivalent of $33 per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 7.80, which getting closer to reopening the arb window.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are up 3.6 percent in Dalian, steel rebar is up 2.2 percent, silver is up 0.4 percent and gold prices are off 0.1 percent. In international markets, after oil’s five percent rally yesterday Brent crude is last at $48.67.
Equities recovered yesterday with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.7 percent and the Dow closed up 0.6 percent. Asia has followed suit with the Nikkei up 1.5 percent, the ASX 200 is up 1.1 percent, the Kospi is up 0.9 percent, the CSI 300 is up 0.6 percent and the Hang Seng is up 0.4 percent.
In FX, the dollar index is flat at 95.46 as are the euro at 1.1227, sterling at 1.3018, the yen is weaker at 101.55 and the aussie is firm at 0.7685. The yuan is flat at 6.6700, the rouble is firmer at 63.01, as is the ringgit, while the rest are relatively flat.
The economic agenda is busy, Japan’s retail sales disappointed by falling 2.1 percent, later data is out on German and Spanish CPI, German unemployment change, UK M4 money supply and lending and a barrage of US data including final GDP, GDP prices, initial jobless claims, goods trade balance, pending home sales and natural gas storage. There are also a host of central bankers speaking today including Bank of Japan’s Haruhiko Kuroda, FOMC members Esther George, Jerome Powell, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and UK’s MPC member Kristin Forbes – see table below for more details.
The base metals are running higher with copper prices gapping higher this morning, which is a particular sign of strength. With lead and tin setting fresh highs and the others running up to challenge resistance levels the market is looking bullish and we would not be surprised to see the run continue. The next focal point is likely to be on Saturday’s release of Chinese manufacturing PMI – any sign that demand may be improving could add fuel to the rally.
Palladium prices have broken above resistance in recent days and now seem to have set off on another up leg, platinum is struggling to follow as it seems more in tune with gold and silver that have got some lift of yesterday’s lows but look far from bullish. Indeed with other metals looking stronger it may be demand for safe havens eases off for a while that could lead to further long liquidation. That said, if funds start buying oil, then there may be a move back into commodity baskets, which could give gold a lift.
| Overnight Performance | ||||
| BST | 06:04 | +/- | +/- % | Lots |
| Cu | 4858 | 27.5 | 0.6% | 2624 |
| Al | 1673 | 13 | 0.8% | 1839 |
| Ni | 10790 | 90 | 0.8% | 1157 |
| Zn | 2346 | 11 | 0.5% | 1035 |
| Pb | 2017 | 13 | 0.6% | 451 |
| Sn | 19950 | 25 | 0.1% | 41 |
| Average | 0.6% | 7,147 | ||
| Gold | 1324.88 | 2.68 | 0.2% | |
| Silver | 19.238 | 0.033 | 0.2% | |
| Platinum | 1031.5 | 5.5 | 0.5% | |
| Palladium | 716.1 | 7.1 | 1.0% | |
| Average PM | 0.5% | |||
| SHFE Prices 06:04 BST | RMB | Change | % Change |
| Cu | 37880 | 450 | 1.2% |
| AL | 12620 | 190 | 1.5% |
| Zn | 18220 | 200 | 1.1% |
| Pb | 15030 | 350 | 2.4% |
| Ni | 83090 | 1000 | 1.2% |
| Sn | 129470 | 2530 | 2.0% |
| Average change (base metals) | 0 | 1.6% | |
| Rebar | 2322 | 50 | 2.2% |
| Au | 285.7 | -0.35 | -0.1% |
| Ag | 4296 | 19 | 0.4% |
| Economic Agenda | |||||
| BST | Country | Data | Actual | Expected | Previous |
| 12:50am | Japan |
Retail Sales y/y
|
-2.1% | -1.7% | -0.2% |
| 1:00am | US |
FOMC Member George Speaks
|
|||
| All Day | Germany |
German Prelim CPI m/m
|
0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 7:35am | Japan |
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
|
|||
| 8:00am | Spain |
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
|
0.1% | -0.1% | |
| 8:55am | Germany |
German Unemployment Change
|
-5K | -7K | |
| 9:30am | UK |
Net Lending to Individuals m/m
|
4.0B | 3.8B | |
| 9:30am | UK |
M4 Money Supply m/m
|
0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 9:30am | UK |
Mortgage Approvals
|
60K | 61K | |
| Tentative | Italy |
Italian 10-y Bond Auction
|
1.14|1.4 | ||
| 1:30pm | US |
Final GDP q/q
|
1.3% | 1.1% | |
| 1:30pm | US |
Unemployment Claims
|
260K | 252K | |
| 1:30pm | US |
Final GDP Price Index q/q
|
2.3% | 2.3% | |
| 1:30pm | US |
Goods Trade Balance
|
-62.6B | -58.8B | |
| 2:00pm | UK |
MPC Member Forbes Speaks
|
|||
| 3:00pm | US |
FOMC Member Powell Speaks
|
|||
| 3:00pm | US |
Pending Home Sales m/m
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-0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 3:30pm | US |
Natural Gas Storage
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57B | 52B | |
| 9:00pm | US |
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
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Gold supported by oil price rise
The spot gold price inched higher during Asian trading hours on Thursday supported by positive sentiment among commodities after crude oil prices jumped early morning.
Spot gold was last at $1,324.60-1,325.00 per ounce, up $2.60 from Wednesday’s close. Trading ranged at $1,322.30-1,325.88 so far.
Crude oil prices surged to three-week highs during early morning Thursday in Asian time zones following reports that OPEC members have reached an initial deal to cut oil output – the Brent crude oil spot price reached $49.07 per barrel and the Texas light sweet crude touched $47.41.
OPEC has agreed on Wednesday to reduce its oil production to 32.5 million barrels per day from the current production of 33.24 million barrels per day, Reuters reported. The deal is expected to be formalised in November.
The Brent was last at $48.59, down 0.56 percent, while the WTI was recently at $47.07, down 0.08 percent on Thursday.
Strong support for gold continues to lie around the 100-DMA of $1,310 with initial resistance around $1,330, MKS Group said Thursday morning.
With China’s upcoming week-long national day holidays, the metal will likely continue to consolidate between $1,300-1,350 barring any unexpected market moving news, the broker said.
Overnight, Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen’s remarks on monetary policy outlook during her testimony at the Committee on Financial Services in Washington DC were in line with the Federal Open Market Committee’s message in September.
The US jobless rate is close to inferring full employment and should fall further, though productivity and overall growth has been disappointing and inflation lacked upward pressure, she said.
While the Feds have not given a fixed timetable to raise rates, a majority of FOMC members see a rate rise this year, ANZ Research said on Thursday morning.
“The market will not move to seriously price that possibility in until the US election [on November 8] is out of the way,” the bank said.
“But even then, they’ll keep a wary eye on the data and event calendar – throughout 2016 mixed data and wobbly markets have conspired to keep the Fed on hold despite repeated assertions that their fingers remain on the trigger, so it would not be unreasonable to conclude that this pattern may well continue.”
In US data released Wednesday, core durable goods orders fell 0.4 percent month-on-month in August, close to forecast of a 0.5-percent drop. Growth for durable goods orders were flat month-on-month in August but better than consensus of a 1-percent decline.
US weekly crude oil inventories fell 1.9 million barrels last week, against expectations of a 2.4-million-barrel rise.
US data due later today includes second quarter final GDP, unemployment claims, final GDP price index, goods trade balance and pending home sales.
In currencies, the US dollar index rose 0.03 percent to 95.44 so far on Thursday.
In equities, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.52 percent to 3,003.53 recently on Thursday.
In other precious metals, silver was last at $19.245/19.27, up $0.052. Platinum rose $10.50 to $1,033/1,040, and palladium increased $9.50 to $714/723 recently on Thursday.
Silver is expected to perform well in September and October because the macro environment for precious metals may remain supportive thanks to a dovish Fed, Boris Mikanikrezai, a metals analyst at FastMarkets, said.
“But we do not think silver’s rally will be sustainable in the fourth quarter because we think the US economy will continue to perform well, so extreme bullishness among speculators and investors may reverse once the Fed starts preparing the markets for a possible rate increase in December.”
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for December delivery was last unchanged at 285.60 yuan per gram, and the December silver was flat at 4,293 yuan per kilogram.
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Gold drifts gently amid technical selling
Gold bullion prices settled back slightly during moderate European trading, with the market seeing some sub-$1,330 technical selling and liquidation.
– Traders said the market otherwise lacked inspiration, with the dollar doing little and investment interest low-key.
“In the short term, with physical demand for gold weak in India and China, all the buying is being left to investors,” FastMarkets’ William Adams said. “Now that prices have stopped rising – they have been trading sideways since July – there is a risk that investors move to the sidelines.”
– Spot gold was indicated at $1,324.15/1,324.55 per ounce, a $3.00 loss from the previous close, with prices comfortable near $1,325.
– In others, spot silver likewise drifted – it was six cents lower at $19.10/19.12 per ounce. But the PGMs were stable – platinum was up $1 at $1,022/1,027 while palladium gained $2 to $699/707.
(Editing by Mark Shaw)
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SILVER TODAY – Selling pressure is back
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вторник, 27 сентября 2016 г.
Gold prices turned back by resistance again
Precious metals were largely lower yesterday, with gold, silver and platinum off an average of 1.1 percent, while palladium bucked the trend with a one percent rise to $697. Gold prices closed at $1,327.10. Base metals were quite mixed yesterday with copper off one percent at $4,797 and aluminium closed down 0.8 percent at $1,647, while the rest were up between 2.2 percent for nickel at $10,695 and tin that was up 0.1 percent at $19,750. Lead and zinc were up around 0.7 percent.
This morning the base metals remain mixed with aluminium and zinc are up 0.4 percent, nickel is off 0.5 percent at $10,645, lead is up 0.2 percent, while copper and tin are unchanged. Volume remains light at 4,698 lots, with zinc trading 1,638 lots, nickel 1,224 lots and copper 877 lots.
Palladium is up 0.5 percent at $700.2, gold and platinum are off 0.1 percent with gold prices at $1,325.60, while silver is of 0.4 percent at $19.09.
In Shanghai, the metals are mixed with copper and aluminium off 0.4 and 0.2 percent respectively, with copper at Rmb 37,480, zinc is up 0.9 percent and nickel is up 0.6 percent, tin is up 0.2 percent and led is unchanged. Spot copper in Changjiang is down 0.4 percent, the spread is at an equivalent to around $32 per tonne, while the LME/Shanghai arb ratio is at 7.81, meaning the arb window is closed.
In other metals in China, iron ore is up 0.9 percent, steel rebar is off 0.2 percent, silver is down 1.8 percent and gold prices are off one percent.
Equities yesterday saw Europe remain under pressure, the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 0.2 percent, but the Dow closed up 0.7 percent helped by a pick-up on consumer confidence. Asia, however, is negative this morning with the Nikkei off 1.4 percent, the Hang Seng is off 0.6 percent, the CSI 300 is down 0.1 percent, the Kospi is off 0.5 percent and the ASX 200 is little changed.
In FX, the dollar is edging higher, last at 95.57, the euro is weaker at 1.1206, sterling is last at 1.3010, the yen is firm at 100.57 and the aussie is firmer at 0.7675. The yuan is flat at 6.6687 with most emerging market currencies fairly flat, the exception being the rand that is firmer at 13.4436.
German GfK consumer climate eased to 10 from 10.2, later we get US data on durable goods orders and crude oil inventories. There are, however, numerous central bank speakers today, including UK’s MPC Nemat Shafik, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, FOMC Member James Bullard and ECB President Draghi. There is also an informal OPEC meeting in Algeria, where the mood has turned less bullish about a freeze in output.
Copper prices have had a good rebound since September 12, but light selling has dominated since yesterday’s opening, but this looks like consolidation, while the rest are holding up and look well placed to trend higher – a firmer dollar may act as a headwind.
Gold prices are pulling back from resistance once again, indeed this is the fourth time they have done so since peaking in July. As such, prices are consolidating within a wedge shape. The danger is if stale long liquidation unfolds. Silver has followed gold’s lead, as has platinum, while palladium is holding up well and is doing so above its resistance line – whether it can do it alone remains to be seen.
| Overnight Performance | ||||
| BST | 06:59 | +/- | +/- % | Lots |
| Cu | 4796 | -1 | 0.0% | 877 |
| Al | 1653.5 | 6.5 | 0.4% | 617 |
| Ni | 10645 | -50 | -0.5% | 1224 |
| Zn | 2315 | 9 | 0.4% | 1638 |
| Pb | 1962.5 | 4.5 | 0.2% | 342 |
| Sn | 19750 | 0 | 0.0% | |
| Average | 0.1% | 4,698 | ||
| Gold | 1325.61 | -1.49 | -0.1% | |
| Silver | 19.087 | -0.083 | -0.4% | |
| Platinum | 1023.8 | -1.2 | -0.1% | |
| Palladium | 700.2 | 3.2 | 0.5% | |
| Average PM | -0.1% | |||
| SHFE Prices 06:59 BST | RMB | Change | % Change |
| Cu | 37480 | -160 | -0.4% |
| AL | 12450 | -30 | -0.2% |
| Zn | 18005 | 165 | 0.9% |
| Pb | 14685 | 5 | 0.0% |
| Ni | 81890 | 500 | 0.6% |
| Sn | 126840 | 230 | 0.2% |
| Average change (base metals) | 0 | 0.2% | |
| Rebar | 2278 | -4 | -0.2% |
| Au | 285.65 | -2.85 | -1.0% |
| Ag | 4262 | -77 | -1.8% |
| Economic Agenda | |||||
| BST | Country | Data | Actual | Expected | Previous |
| 7:00am | Germany |
GfK German Consumer Climate
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10 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| 9:05am | UK |
MPC Member Shafik Speaks
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| 1:30pm | US |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
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-0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 1:30pm | US |
Durable Goods Orders m/m
|
-1.0% | 4.4% | |
| 3:00pm | US |
Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
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| 3:10pm | US |
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
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| 3:30pm | EU |
ECB President Draghi Speaks
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| 3:30pm | US |
Crude Oil Inventories
|
2.4M | -6.2M | |
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Gold edges lower on US dollar strength, softer oil prices
The spot gold price edged lower during Asian trading hours on Wednesday amid a stronger US dollar and weaker crude oil prices.
Spot gold was last at $1,325.30-1,325.60 per ounce, down $1.70 from Tuesday’s close. Trading ranged at $1,324.95-1,327.65 so far.
The US dollar index rose to as high as 95.67 on Tuesday, boosted by stronger than expected US economic data. The index was last at 95.58 so far on Wednesday, up 0.12 percent.
The US flash services PMI in September was at 51.9, beating expectations of 51.1 and August’s reading of 50.9. The CB consumer confidence for September also surprised at 104.1 – consensus was looking for 98.6 while August’s figure was at 101.1.
The S&P/CS Composite-20 house price index rose five percent in July, which was within expectations, but the Richmond manufacturing index in September disappointed at -8 as -2 was called for.
In other commodities, the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price fell to a one-week low of $44.19 per barrel, with the Brent crude oil spot price also dropping to a week’s low of $45.62 on Tuesday.
This followed Iran’s oil minister’s comments that a production cut agreement is unlikely to be reached in a meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers in Algiers, Algeria later on Wednesday.
The WTI crude oil spot price was last at $44.62, down 0.69 percent, and the Brent crude oil spot price was recently at $46.09, down 0.26 percent from the previous day’s close.
The spot gold price had inched lower during the US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on Tuesday.
The slight Clinton win saw speculative bids removed from the market – there had been some initial buying during the early Asian session under the assumption that a Trump victory in the first US presidential debate may materialise, MKS Group said on Wednesday morning.
Safe haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen were sold lower on Tuesday after Trump’s probability of becoming president was seemingly diminished after his poor showing in the debate, Angus Nicholson, a market analyst at Melbourne-based IG, said in a report on Wednesday morning.
“[Clinton’s] strong debate performance may well be enough to halt Trump’s recent momentum in the polls,” he said.
A number of safe haven assets had been bid up during the Trump poll surge as investors worried about what Trump would mean for the global economy, and particularly the global security risks he poses, Nicholson added.
In data, core durable goods orders, durable goods orders and crude oil inventories from the US are due later on Wednesday. Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen will also testify at the committee on financial services later today at Washington DC.
“Her views after the split FOMC [meeting in September] will be closely noted to see how close the Fed is to raising rates in December,” National Australia Bank said on Wednesday morning.
The Fed Fund futures market has assigned only an eight percent probability of a November rate hike, and 47.6 percent changes of a December rate rise, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool. The majority sees the Fed only taking action in February next year.
In equities, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2 percent to 2,992.27 so far on Wednesday.
In other precious metals, silver was last at $19.055/19.085, down $0.095. Platinum rose $4.50 to $1,022/1,029, and palladium increased $4 to $697/705 recently on Wednesday.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for December delivery was last unchanged at 285.60 yuan per gram, and the December silver was flat at 4,254 yuan per kilogram.
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PALLADIUM TODAY – Profit-taking after last week’s strong rally
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