пятница, 31 марта 2017 г.
Gold prices run into resistance
FastMarkets
In the precious metals this morning, Friday March 31, gold and silver prices are slightly weaker with spot gold at $1,241.71 per oz, while platinum prices are up 0.3% and palladium prices are unchanged. This comes after a day of general weakness on Thursday that saw gold, silver and platinum prices fall between 0.5-0.8%, with gold prices closing at $1,243.50 per oz, while palladium bucked the trend with a 0.6% gain to $791 per oz.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are down an average of 0.4% this morning, this despite better Chinese PMI data.
Zinc prices have fallen the most, with a decline of 1% to $2,817.50 per tonne, followed by lead prices that are down 0.7%, while copper prices are off 0.4% at $5,893 per tonne – little changed from this time on Thursday. Volume has been slightly above average at 6,106 lots as of 06:32 BST.
This pull-back comes after a general day of strength on Thursday, although some weakness emerged at the end of the day. It may be that end-of-month and quarter profit-taking started to emerge at the end of the day. News overnight that the strike at Peru’s Cerro Verde copper mine is over may be weighing on sentiment too.
In Shanghai, the May base metals contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Zinc prices lead on the downside with a drop of 1.1%, lead and tin prices are off 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, while nickel, copper and aluminium are up an average of 0.4%, with copper prices at 47,660 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.5% at 47,270-47,470 yuan per tonne, with the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio firmer at 8.1, which means the arb window remains closed.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are weaker, they are down 1.2%, on SHFE steel rebar prices are up 0.4%, while gold and silver prices are off 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down 0.5% at $52.79 per barrel and the yield on the 10-year US treasuries is firmer at around 2.41%.
Equities were stronger on Thursday, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.2% and the Dow closed up 0.3%. Equities in Asia, however, are for the most part weaker, but after a strong quarter some of the weakness is thought to be end of period profit-taking. The Nikkei and Kospi are off 0.1%, the Hang Seng is down 0.6%, the ASX 200 is off 0.5%, but the CSI 300 is bucking the trend with a 0.3% gain.
In FX, the dollar index continues to rebound, it was recently quoted at 100.55, conversely the euro is weaker at 1.0677, as is the yen at 111.86, while the sterling is firmer at 1.2473 and the Australian dollar at 0.7644 is little changed. The yuan is weaker at 6.8840, the rupee and peso are the stronger emerging market currencies, while the other ones we follower are on a back footing, especially the rand that has fallen to 13.4420, from a recent high of 12.3080 – the weakness prompted by South African president Jacob Zuma sacking his finance minister Pravin Gordhan and making numerous other cabinet changes.
The economic calendar is packed with important data today with generally better Japanese data emerging, see table below, although the drop in household spending was disappointing. Chinese manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.8, the highest since mid-2012 and non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.1 from 54.2. German retail sales grew 1.8%, this significantly stronger than the 0.7% gain expected. There is more CPI data out across the euro-zone, plus a host of other important data, again see table below. US data includes personal income, spending, PCE prices, Chicago PMI and revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member William Dudley and UK Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Haldane are speaking.
The trends in the base metals remain broadly upward, albeit to varying degrees, but the upside going is laboured for most of the metals as higher prices attract selling. Thursday’s firmer tone seems to have run into month-end profit-taking and there may be more of that around today. Aluminium remains the one metal that has broken higher recently and looks well placed to extend higher. The better Chinese PMI data bodes well, especially as we cross over into the second quarter.
Gold and silver prices have put in a strong rebound since the March FOMC rate rise, but prices are struggling to overcome the late-February/early-March highs and with risk-on returning to broader markets that is not so surprising. But, we expect dips to remain well supported and there may well be further haven asset demand as we move through April when political uncertainties rise over the progress of Brexit and ahead of the French election.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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четверг, 30 марта 2017 г.
Gold prices pause ahead of resistance
FastMarkets
Precious metals are split this morning, Thursday March 30, with spot gold and silver prices down 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, with gold at $1,250.34 per oz, while the PGMs are firmer with platinum prices up 0.6% at $957.40 per oz and palladium prices up 0.3% at $788.70 per oz. Platinum prices are at a $293 per oz discount to gold prices.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are slightly weaker across the board this morning, with three-month prices down between 0.1% for aluminium and 0.5% for lead, nickel and copper, with the latter at $5,877 per tonne.
Volume has been light with 3,297 lots traded as of 06:20 BST. Today’s weaker tone follows a day of gains on Wednesday when prices closed up an average of 0.6%, which saw aluminium prices set fresh highs for the year at $1,961 per tonne.
In Shanghai, the May base metals contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed, zinc prices lead the upside with a 1.8% gain, while lead prices are off 1.2%, tin prices are down 0.2%. Nickel prices are up 0.5%, aluminium prices are little changed and copper prices are up 0.4% at 47,450 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.1% at 47,100-47,220 yuan per tonne, with the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio at 8.07, which means the arb window remains closed.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are slightly weaker, they are down 0.4%. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 0.4%, while gold and silver prices are off an average of 0.2%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.1% at $52.48 per barrel and the yield on the 10-year US treasuries is weaker at around 2.39%.
Equities were mixed on Wednesday, despite the UK triggering Article 50 the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.3% but the Dow closed down 0.2%. Equities in Asia this morning are for the most part weaker with the Nikkei off 0.9%, the Hang Seng is down 0.5%, the CSI 300 is down 1.13%, the Kospi is off 0.3%, but the ASX 200 is bucking the trend with a 0.4% gain.
In FX, the dollar index continues to rebound and was recently quoted at 100.04, conversely the euro is weaker at 1.0754, the yen is little changed at 111.14, while sterling at 1.2440 and the Australian dollar at 0.7659, are firmer than at this time on Wednesday. The yuan has firmed slightly to 6.8803, the rupee and peso are consolidating recent gains, the rand is on a back footing, while the rest are consolidating.
On the economic agenda there is CPI data out in Spain and Germany and US data includes initial jobless claims, final GDP, GDP prices, natural gas storage and US Federal Open Market Committee member Robert Kaplan is speaking – see table below for more details.
Aluminium prices stand out as the leader as they broke higher on Wednesday. Zinc, copper and lead prices are nibbling away at overhead resistance and we wait to see how much selling lurks above. Nickel prices have not managed to get much lift, they are seeing what underlying support is like, while tin prices have been quite choppy of late, but they do seem to have an upside bias again. There may be some position adjusting/book-squaring ahead of the end of the first quarter and we wait to see, as we expect, if consumer interest picks up as we move into the second quarter.
Gold prices have rebounded well but appear to have run into selling ahead of the February highs, but for now the sellers do not seem to be prepared to chase prices lower, so it may be a question of the buyers having to absorb what selling there is at these levels, before prices can move higher again. Silver is following gold, palladium prices are consolidating having recently set fresh highs, while platinum prices are fairly listless.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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среда, 29 марта 2017 г.
Gold prices face headwinds as risk-on returns
FastMarkets
Precious metals are consolidating recent gains this morning, Wednesday March 29, prices are ranged between silver being down 0.5% at $18.05 per oz and platinum being up 0.4% at $953.70 per oz – gold prices are off 0.2% at $1,248.76 per oz and palladium prices at $789.90 per oz.
Base metals prices are consolidating on the London Metal Exchange this morning, with prices off an average of 0.2%. Nickel leads the decline with a 0.6% drop to $9,940 per tonne, the rest vary from lead prices being down 0.4%, to aluminium prices being up 0.1%. Three-month copper prices are off 0.3% at $5,872 per tonne.
Volume has been light with 4,477 lots traded as of 06:48 BST. This consolidation comes after a strong rebound on Tuesday, which saw prices close up an average of 1.3%. In turn Tuesday’s rebound followed Monday’s spike lower.
In Shanghai, the May base metals contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are up across the board with gains averaging 1.4%, led by a 2.5% gain in zinc prices and 2.4% in copper prices at 47,420 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 1.1% at 47,050-47,170 yuan per tonne, with the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio at 8.08, which means the arb window remains closed.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have started to rebound, they are up 2.1%. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 2.6%, while gold and silver prices are off an average of 0.4%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.3% at 51.50 per barrel and the yield on the 10-year US treasuries are around 2.42%.
Equities recovered from their jittery start to the week, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.8% on Tuesday and the Dow closed up 0.7%. Equities in Asia this morning, are mainly firmer, the Nikkei is off 0.1%, but the rest are stronger with the Hang Seng up 0.1%, the CSI 300 up 0.3%, the ASX 200 up 0.9% and the Kospi is up 0.2%.
In FX, the dollar index is rebounding having gapped lower on Monday morning. At 99.84, the index has now closed that gap – the low on Monday was 98.85. The rebound in the dollar has weakened the other major currencies with the euro recently quoted at 1.0799, sterling is at 1.2389, the yen is at 111.22, although the Australian dollar has rebounded to 0.7635. The yuan has eased slightly to 6.8916, the rupee is strengthening in line with the stronger dollar, while the other emerging market currencies are weaker, led by the rand.
On the economic agenda, Japan’s retail sales disappointed, rising just 0.1%, while German import prices climbed 0.7%. Data out later includes UK lending and money supply and in the USA there is data on pending home sales and crude oil inventories. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Charles Evans is speaking – see table below for more details.
The rebound in the base metals prices suggests underlying sentiment remains strong enough to encourage solid dip-buying, but for most of the metals there is not enough follow-through buying yet to absorb the overhead selling that is still around. Aluminium seems the most bullish of the metals at present, with prices just $11 per tonne below the March 1 peak. We wait to see if the buying pressure picks up as we approach the seasonally busier second quarter and we think it will based on the economic data flow.
Gold prices have rebounded well, but have run into resistance ahead of the February highs. With risk-on returning to broader markets and with the dollar rebounding it is not surprising that gold prices are experiencing a headwind today, but with the UK about to trigger Article 50 and the French election less than a month away, we would expect precious metals prices to be well supported.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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вторник, 28 марта 2017 г.
GOLD TODAY: Challenging the February price highs
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Gold prices hold on to yesterday’s gains
FastMarkets
Gold prices have held on to Monday’s gains with spot prices at $1,254.30 per oz, this morning, Tuesday march 28, platinum prices are up 0.5% at $970.90, while the others are little changed. This comes after a generally firmer day for the precious metals on Monday that saw fresh buying in gold, silver and platinum, as risk-off in other markets buoyed haven assets, the exception was palladium where prices corrected to $791 per oz, having in recent days broken higher to $815 per oz.
The base metals on the London Metal Exchange are little changed this morning, with three-month copper prices at $5,799 per tonne and volume has been light with 4,937 lots traded as of 05:55 BST.
This comes after a shakeout and bounce on Monday, that saw a knee-jerk reaction on the downside following US president Donald Trump’s failure in getting his healthcare bill passed. At Monday’s lows, prices on the base metals complex had dropped an average of 2.5%, led by a 3.2% drop in zinc prices to $2,739 per tonne, but they recouped some lost ground later in the afternoon and ended the day down an average of 0.9%.
Base metals prices in Shanghai remain mixed this morning with prices down an average of 0.8%, but this is skewed by a 3.2% drop in lead prices, while zinc prices are down 1.6% and tin prices are off 0.6%. The rest of the base metals are firmer with aluminium little changed, nickel prices are up 0.2% and May copper prices are up 0.6% at 46,800 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are also up 0.6% at 46,450-46,650 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb is weaker at 8.07.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices are unchanged on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, steel rebar prices are up 1%, silver prices are up 0.6% and gold prices are up 0.3%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.4% at $51 per barrel and the yield on the 10-year US treasuries are around 2.38%.
Equities seem to have got over Monday’s jitters, the Euro Stoxx 50 and Dow closed off 0.2% having earlier been down around 0.9%, but Asia has generally rebounded this morning with the Nikkei up 1%, the Hang Seng is up 0.6%, the Kospi is up 0.2%, the ASX 200 is up 1.3%, although the CSI 300 is off 0.2%. Key now will be whether the markets see the recent sell-off as an opportunity to bargain hunt, or whether they shift to the side lines.
In FX, the dollar index remains weak at 99.16, although the index is above Monday’s spike lower of 98.85, which pierced the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern on the chart – so that is something that will need careful monitoring. Monday’s risk-off sell-off that hit the dollar led to gaps higher in many of the currencies with the euro leaping to a high of 1.0906, the currency was recently quoted at 1.0870, which is still above the gap. The sterling remains firmer at 1.2571, the yen is at 110.57, but the Australian dollar remains weak at 0.7612, no doubt dragged lower by weaker metals prices, especially iron ore prices.
The yuan is firmer at 6.8609 and the other emerging market currencies we follow look quite mixed. The peso, ringgit, rupiah and rupee strengthened as the dollar weakened, while they are giving back some of those gains this morning, while the rand and real weakened in line with the dollar and commodity prices.
Data out today is focused on the USA with the release of goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, HPI, consumer confidence and Richmond Manufacturing index. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee member Robert Kaplan is speaking – see table below for more details.
The base metals have been on a back footing for some time now with upside initiatives being capped by overhead supply from stale long liquidation, profit-taking and forward selling. With strong overhead resistance, we should now get to see how bullish underlying sentiment is by seeing how well dips are supported. Underlying tails on Monday’s copper, aluminium, nickel and tin charts suggest fairly good support, while lead and zinc looked weaker. With Trump’s lack of progress, the UK about to trigger Article 50 and with the French election less than a month away, it is not surprising that the exuberance in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory has started to wane and markets are correcting. But, key will now be whether underlying economic activity is painting a bullish enough picture to prompt consumers to buy into the price weakness. Our overall view is that the economic outlook remains bullish.
Gold prices have latched on to the markets’ jitters and they also have all the political uncertainty that lies ahead to potentially benefit from too. As such, we remain bullish for gold prices, especially while the weaker dollar is struggling.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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понедельник, 27 марта 2017 г.
воскресенье, 26 марта 2017 г.
пятница, 24 марта 2017 г.
PALLADIUM TODAY: Prices break higher
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Palladium prices break higher, at levels last seen in May 2015
FastMarkets
Gold prices are off 0.2% this morning, Friday March 24, at $1,243.05 per oz, silver and platinum prices are slightly weaker too, while palladium prices are consolidating the gains made yesterday when prices pushed higher through resistance at $797 per oz to set a high of $809 per oz, prices were recently quoted at $802.1 per oz. On Thursday, the precious metals complex rallied an average of 0.5%, led by a 1.7% rise in palladium prices.
The base metals are slightly weaker this morning, with London Metal Exchange prices down an average of 0.3% as of 06:20 GMT.
Zinc prices are unchanged at $2,824.50 per tonne, aluminium and tin prices are off 0.2%, while copper leads the drop with a 0.6% fall to $5,817 per tonne. Volume has been average with 5,857 lots traded as of 06:20 GMT. On Thursday, the base metals were in two camps – copper and aluminium prices closed up 0.3%, the rest were unchanged to lower with an average loss of 0.7%, led by a 1.4% drop in zinc prices.
In Shanghai, base metals traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are for the most part weaker, copper prices are little changed, with a 10 yuan gain to 46,970 yuan per tonne. The rest are down an average of 0.8%, led by a 1.7% drop in lead prices, lead being the metal that was up the 2.3% at this time on Thursday morning. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.2% at 46,650-46,850 yuan per tonne, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has fallen to 8.06, meaning that SHFE prices are falling at a faster pace than LME prices.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices are off 0.2% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are off 0.4%, gold prices are down 0.2% and silver prices are off 0.1%.
Equities in Europe rebounded on Thursday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.9%, while the main US equity indices closed down around 0.1%. In Asia this morning, equities are for the most part bullish with the Nikkei up 0.9%, the CSI 300 and ASX 200 are up 0.8%, while the Hang Seng is little changed and the Kospi is down 0.2%.
In FX, the dollar index is slightly off recent lows, but at 99.98 is still below the 100 level and therefore is looking weak, the euro is at 1.0765, the sterling is slightly weaker at 1.2475, while the yen is firmer at 111.47 and the Australian dollar is little changed at 0.7617. The yuan is at 6.970 and the other emerging market currencies we follow are little changed.
The economic agenda is busy with flash manufacturing and services data out across the developed world – Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell to 52.6, from 53.3 in February, later there is PMI data out across Europe and the USA. In addition, there is data on UK mortgage approvals and US durable goods orders – see table below for more details.
The base metals are for the most part still consolidating as there appears to be overhead supply and while consumers are prepared to buy dips they do not seem to feel the need to chase prices higher. Reports that that the strike at Escondida will end may well weigh on copper sentiment for a while. This, combined with funds that have stale long positions, plus high levels of cathode stocks, could lead to further weakness, but overall we think the global economy is gaining momentum and that should be good for demand and there may still be restocking to be done once seasonal demand picks up in the second quarter. As such, we would avoid getting too bearish as we expect dips will run into good support.
Gold prices are holding up well, the bout of risk-off of late has underpinned prices, but overall investment confidence seems to remain bullish and that may prove a headwind for gold prices, although geopolitical heat is likely to turn up as the French election approaches.
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четверг, 23 марта 2017 г.
Gold prices remain robust but may face headwinds
FastMarkets
Precious metals are up an average of 0.3% this morning, Thursday March 23, spot gold prices are little changed at $1,246.07 per oz, silver prices are up 0.2%, platinum prices are up 0.4% and palladium prices are up 0.8%. Gold prices have generally been upbeat since March 15.
Volatility has picked up in the base metals trading on the London Metals Exchange in recent days, with prices down an average of 0.4% this morning. This is after prices rebounded on Wednesday afternoon following a bout of weakness that started on Monday.
Large cancellations of lead warrants on the LME on Wednesday, combined with concerns about flooding in Peru that is disrupting zinc and lead supply, seemed to have been behind the rebound.
This morning base metals prices are off between little changed for aluminium and down 0.7% for tin, three-month copper prices are off 0.3% at $5,820 per tonne. Volume has been low with 4,090 lots traded as of 06:14 GMT.
In Shanghai, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, are also rebounding, with prices up an average of 0.6%, nickel prices are bucking the trend with a 0.3% loss, while the rest are up between 2.3% for lead and 0.2% for tin. Copper prices are up 0.7% at 47,210 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.8% at 46,740-46,940 yuan per tonne, the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.11, meaning the arb window remains closed.
In other metals in China, September iron ore prices are down 1.3% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are rebounding, they are up 0.3%, silver prices are off 0.1% and gold prices are up 0.2%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.2% at $50.90 per barrel, while the yield on the 10-year US treasuries are weaker at 2.41%.
The recent bout of weakness in equities started to run out of steam on Wednesday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.3%, while the Dow closed off less than 0.1%. Equities in Asia this morning are for the most part firmer with the Nikkei, Kospi and CSI 300 up 0.2%, the ASX 200 is up 0.4% and the Hang Seng little changed. So was the recent risk-off just a nervous sell-off that has attracted bargain hunting, or is this rebound just a “dead cat bounce”?
Judging by continued weakness in the dollar index we would not be surprised if another wave of weakness followed. If it does not then it suggests underlying sentiment remains bullish and fairly robust. The dollar index was recently quoted at 99.66, the euro is holding up in high ground at 1.0800, the sterling is strong at 1.2511, as is the yen at 111.26 and the Australian dollar at 0.7664 is strengthening again too.
The yuan is flat at 6.8874 and most emerging currencies we follow are hovering just below recent highs, although the peso and rand are looking set to strengthen further.
The economic agenda is busy today with German GfK consumer climate, there is an ECB economic bulletin, an announcement on long term refinancing and EU consumer confidence, data on UK retail sales and realised sales and US data includes new home sales and natural gas storage. In addition UK Monetary Policy Committee member Ben Broadbent, US Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen and US Federal Open Market Committee members Neel Kashkari and Robert Kaplan are speaking – see table below for more details.
Base metals prices have become choppier in recent weeks and the upsides do seem capped by overhead selling/supply, but dips are also tending to be short-lived, even if some have been quite severe. Overall, we would say sentiment remains mildly bullish in that dips are being bought and the sellers are not too interested in chasing prices lower, instead they seem prepared for prices to come to their selling levels. The exception is nickel that is looking weaker than the rest. On balance this suggests we may see more range-trading up at these relatively high price levels as the markets seem quite well balanced. Whether buying steps up a gear as we enter the second quarter remains to be seen.
Gold prices have rebounded again in recent days and the blip of risk-off this week has given prices a further boost. With the dollar still on a back footing, despite a firmer tone in other markets since Wednesday afternoon, gold prices are managing to hold up well, but they may start to struggle if equities and other assets classes regain their firmer tone.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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среда, 22 марта 2017 г.
ZINC TODAY: Price weakness will prove to be transient
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PLATINUM TODAY: Finds support, rebounds; but seems in no hurry
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вторник, 21 марта 2017 г.
GOLD TODAY: Price rebounding on opportunistic physical buying
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Gold prices consolidate
FastMarkets
Precious metals are also down across the board this morning, Tuesday March 21, with average losses of 0.5%, led by a 1% drop in platinum prices to $959.50 per oz, silver prices are off 0.5%, gold prices are off 0.4% at $1,229.42 per oz and palladium is little changed. This morning’s losses come after gains of between 0.3% and 0.9% on Monday.
Base metals trading on the London Metal Exchange are weaker this morning, with prices down an average of 0.4%, this comes after an average decline of 0.7% on Monday.
Three-month copper prices lead the decline with a 1% drop to $5,804 per tonne, while tin prices are little changed at $20,250 per tonne. Volume has been above average with 7,455 lots traded as of 06:14 GMT.
In Shanghai this morning, the base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are down an average of 1%, aluminium prices are off 0.3%, the rest are down between 1.8% for copper prices at 47,180 yuan per tonne and 0.9% for lead and tin prices. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 1.5% at 46,930-47,130 per tonne, which shows that prices opened up even lower, but the futures have since started to rebound. The LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is steady at 8.13, meaning the arb window remains closed.
In other metals in China, the weakness has been more pronounced with May iron ore prices off 4% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, steel rebar prices are off 3.9%, gold prices are down 0.3% and silver prices are off 0.4%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.2% at $51.80 per barrel and the yield on US 10-year treasuries are around 2.48%.
Equities were slightly weaker on Monday with the Euro Stoxx 50 off 0.3% and the Dow closed down around 9 points. Equities in Asia this morning are mixed, the Nikkei is off 0.3%, the Hang Seng is up 0.4%, the CSI 300 is up 0.2%, the ASX 200 is down 0.7% and the Kospi is up 1%.
In FX, the dollar index’s recent weakness has halted and the index is consolidating, it was recently quoted at 100.21. The euro is firmer at 1.0769, the sterling is consolidating at 1.2357, and the yen is weaker at 112.74 as is the Australian dollar at 0.7710. The yuan is consolidating around 6.8860, while the other emerging market currencies we follow are for the most part looking stronger, especially the rupee and rand, which suggests confidence in emerging market economies is strong, which should bode well for metal demand.
On the economic agenda there is a host of UK data on prices, including CPI and PPI, plus the latest on the public sector borrowing requirement and CBI industrial order expectations. There is a European Ecofin meeting, Bank of England governor Mark Carney and US Federal Open Market Committee member William Dudley are speaking, plus there is data on US current account and China’s leading indicators – see table below for more details.
The heavy drop in iron ore and steel prices needs to be monitored to see whether it is forewarning of a change in sentiment towards the broader metals complex. As we saw on Monday morning, early weakness in Asian hours gave way to some bargain hunting and that appears to be unfolding again this morning. Generally the metals on the LME have rebounded strongly in recent weeks but they seem to lack the buying power to absorb the overhead selling, which suggests range-bound trading. With the second quarter approaching, which is a seasonally stronger time for economic activity, we would expect prices to remain at least well supported.
Gold’s latest rebound after the US interest rate rise was expected, but with geopolitical concerns in Europe in wait-and-see mode ahead of the French election and the UK’s triggering of Article 50, it may be that gold prices struggle on the upside for a while – as such we expect more range trading until the European politics road map unfolds further.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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SILVER TODAY: Support found but it may need to consolidate further
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пятница, 17 марта 2017 г.
PALLADIUM TODAY: Resistance emerges
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