вторник, 31 января 2017 г.
Silver and platinum prices well placed
FastMarkets
Tuesday, 31 January 2017
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METALS MORNING VIEW: Silver and platinum prices well placed
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By William Adamswilliam.adams@fastmarkets.com
January 31, 2017, 08:15 GMT
| Precious metals are up an average of 0.7% this morning January 31, with palladium prices rebounding 1.7%, platinum prices up 0.6% and gold and silver prices both up around 0.3%. This follows a generally firmer day yesterday, when prices closed up an average of 0.3%. Concerns over President Trump’s unpredictability, with the sudden firing of acting Attorney General Sally Yates, seem to be underpinning bullion prices.
Base metals are little changed this morning, January 31: aluminium prices are off 0.3%, tin prices are up 0.3%, nickel prices are up 0.2%, while the rest are up a few dollars per tonne. Three-month copper prices are at $5,853 per tonne – although volume remains light, with 1,200 lots traded as of 06:44 GMT. Yesterday’s trading on the LME saw fairly independent moves, some of which were large, with lead prices rebounding 3.3%, nickel prices up 1.9%, tin prices dropping 1.4%, copper and aluminium prices off 0.8% and zinc prices up 0.7%. Equities were weaker yesterday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 1.2% and the Dow off 0.6%. In Asia, the Nikkei is off 1.7%, the Kospi is down 0.8% and the ASX 200 is down 0.7%. In FX, the dollar index is treading water around 100.40, but the trend is to the downside. The euro is slightly weaker at 1.0690, as are sterling at 1.2495 and the aussie at 0.7558. Meanwhile, the yen is attracting some safe-haven interest, firming to 113.62. In emerging market currencies, most are flat, but the real and peso are strengthening, while the rand is weaker. The economic agenda is busy today, with Japan’s monetary policy decisions, statement and housing starts; French GDP and consumer spending; and German retail sales. There are CPI numbers due out across much of Europe; unemployment data out in Germany, Italy and the EU; UK lending data; and EU GDP. US data includes employment costs, house prices, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence – see table below for more details. Generally the dips in base metals prices seem to be attracting buying, the exceptions being aluminium that probably overshot on the upside in recent weeks, and tin that is still trying to find support having broken out of its extended sideways range. The consolidations in copper, lead and zinc prices mean those metals are still well placed to push ahead. The backwardation in lead may provide lead prices with further fuel, but all eyes will be on whether the backwardation attracts metal into LME warehouses or not – if anything, in recent days LME lead stocks have started to fall at a faster pace. The precious metals have had an orderly pullback as profit-taking/liquidation emerged after the US inauguration, but the dips were well supported and the likes of silver and platinum are now well placed to extend gains. Gold prices pulled back slightly further, as did palladium prices, but the overall trends remain to the upside and gold may well pick up more safe-haven buying if President Trump starts to make more aggressive decisions.
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понедельник, 30 января 2017 г.
воскресенье, 29 января 2017 г.
суббота, 28 января 2017 г.
пятница, 27 января 2017 г.
Gold prices consolidate after yesterday’s weakness
Precious metals prices are down around 0.5% this morning, January 27, with spot gold prices at $1,182.10 per oz, which follows losses averaging 1.2% yesterday when palladium prices fell 1.8% to $722 per oz and gold prices closed 1% lower at $1,188.25 per oz. Strong equity markets and no major shocks yet from the new US administration seem to be weighing on precious metals prices.
Base metals are for the most part firmer this morning January 27, with LME prices up an average of 0.3% led by a 1% gain in nickel prices to $9,440 per tonne. Copper is the metal bucking the trend with a 0.2% decline in prices to $5,837 per tonne.
Volumes have been noticeably light due to the start of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, with just 1,253 lots traded, compared with an average at around this time of day last week of 8,060 lots.
The firmer tone follows yesterday’s weakness when the base metals prices closed down an average of 2.2% on a day that saw nickel price slump 4% and lead prices off 3.2%.
In international markets, the spot Brent crude oil price is little changed at 56.14 per barrel.
Equities were mixed yesterday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.2% but the Dow ending up 0.2% at 20,100. This morning most of Asia is closed for the start of the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. The Nikkei is up 0.3% and the ASX 200 is up 0.8%.
In FX, the dollar turned higher yesterday and it is further gaining ground this morning with the dollar index recently quoted at 100.74, after a recent low of 99.79. The dollar’s strength has brought downward pressure on other currencies, with the euro weaker at 1.0667, the yen at 115.10, the aussie at 0.7527 and sterling at 1.2547. Emerging market currencies are also weaker.
The economic agenda is fairly busy, Japan’s core CPI climbed 0.1% in December, slightly weaker than the 0.2% seen in November. There is money supply and private loans data out of the EU, plus there is an EcoFin meeting today, while US data includes advanced GDP and GDP prices, durable goods orders and revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations – see table below.
The weaker tone in the base metals yesterday is of little surprise as there was likely to be some adjustment ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, especially given the general show of strength in recent days/weeks. That said, nickel prices have been showing weakness since December 19, so it is trading its own fundamentals that have been weakened by developments in Indonesia over the allowing of nickel ore exports. Tin prices have also been weaker, again due to a belief that politicians have changed Chinese export rules on refined tin, although this has yet to be confirmed. Tin stocks have also been rising. The rest of the metals now seem to be consolidating recent gains and a stronger dollar and thinner trading volumes due to the Chinese New Year holiday may well lead to some choppier trading.
Precious metals prices are in retreat, stronger equity prices and a lack, so far, of geopolitical stress are weighing on prices, as is the stronger dollar. However, there is still room for a pick-up in geopolitical tension and the standoff between the Trump administration and Mexico may be the start of that. We should get a feel for how bullish underlying sentiment is for gold, by seeing how far prices fall before they find solid support. We expect dips to be well supported.
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четверг, 26 января 2017 г.
среда, 25 января 2017 г.
METAL MORNING VIEW 25/01: Gold prices slip as safe-haven interest wanes
FastMarkets
By William Adamswilliam.adams@fastmarkets.com
January 25, 2017, 07:42 GMT
| Precious metals are off an average of 0.2% this morning, Wednesday January 25, gold and silver prices are down 0.5% with spot gold prices at $1,203.13 per oz, while platinum is off 0.2% and palladium is bucking the trend with a 0.3% gain. On Tuesday, bullion prices were down around 0.7%, while the PGMs were up around 1.5%.
Base metals this morning, are consolidating. Prices are on average off 0.3%, between 0.1% for copper at $5,937 per tonne and 0.7% for nickel at $9,760 per tonne, while aluminium is bucking the trend, its prices are up 0.3% This consolidation, however, comes after strong gains averaging 1.6% on Tuesday. Lead outperformed with prices up 2.7% while copper prices were up 2.3% at $5,945.50 per tonne. In Shanghai this morning, the base metals are for the most part up with average gains of 0.8%, nickel prices are the only ones in negative territory, prices are down 0.6%, zinc prices are little changed, while lead prices are up 0.6%, tin prices are up 1.3%, copper prices are up 1.5% at 47,560 yuan per tonne and aluminium is leading the pack with a 2.1% rise. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 1.3% at 47,390-47,590 yuan per tonne, the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weaker at 8.01 and the spread between the spot and March futures contracts is either side of level. In other markets in China, May iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 1%, on SHFE steel rebar prices are up 1.3%, while gold and silver prices are both down 1.5%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.3% at $55.93 per barrel. Equities were upbeat on Tuesday helped by stronger earnings expectations, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.3%, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched intraday records and the Dow closed up 0.6% at 19,912.71. Equities in Asia are stronger this morning – the Nikkei is up 1.4%, helped by stronger Japanese exports, the Hang Seng and the Kospi are up 0.2%, the CSI 300 is up 0.2% and the ASX 200 is up 0.4%. In FX, the dollar index is hovering in low ground, it was recently quoted at 100.30, the low on Friday January 20, was 99.91. The euro at 1.0752 is holding just below recent highs, the sterling is firmer at 1.2523, the yen is consolidating around 113.67 and the Australian dollar is weaker at 0.7537. Data out late yesterday showed Japan posted its first trade surplus in six years in 2016, later there is data out on German Ifo business climate, there is a 30-year German bond auction, data on UK industrial order expectations, US house prices and crude oil inventories – see table below for more details. Aluminium prices have been leading on the upside, the move has been helped by further talk of production cutbacks in China on the back of stricter environmental standards. Lead prices also performed well, with copper and zinc following, tin prices rebounded, while nickel prices remain depressed as they continue to suffer following Indonesia’s ore export rule changes, but elsewhere in the nickel market availability is looking tighter. For now the path of least resistance is to the upside for most of the metals, but the markets would be in danger of seeing risk-off should there be any political shocks out of the USA. Gold prices are starting to struggle and that seems to be on the back of a lack of shocks from the early days of the new US administration, but as it is still early days, we would be surprised if there was too much long liquidation. The PGMs remain upbeat and the strength in other industrial metals may well help the PGMs hold on to their gains more, even if gold prices slip. Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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вторник, 24 января 2017 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 24/01: Gold prices consolidate
FastMarkets
| In precious metals this morning, January 24, spot platinum prices are up 0.2%, palladium prices are little changed, silver prices are off 0.4% and gold prices are down 0.2% at $1,214.65 per oz.
The base metals for the most part are little changed this morning, lead prices are up 0.6%, copper and nickel prices are both up 0.3% with three-month copper at $5,827 per tonne, while aluminium, zinc and tin prices are off 0.1%. Volume has been average with 6,931 lots traded as of 06:58 GMT. Base metals were bullish on Monday with gains seen across the metals ranging between 0.2% for tin and 1.5% for zinc, with copper, nickel and lead prices up around 0.9%, while aluminium prices closed up 0.3%. Copper prices closed at $5,757.50 per tonne. In precious metals on Monday, palladium prices dropped 1.8%, the rest were up between 0.4% and 0.8%, with gold prices closing at $1,217.35 per oz. In Shanghai, lead prices are down 0.7%, nickel prices are off 0.3%, while the others are firmer, with tin up 0.4%, copper prices are up 0.2% at 46,880 yuan per tonne and the rest are little changed. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are little changed at 46,780-46,980 yuan per tonne, the spread between spot and the March futures is at an equivalent of around $15 per tonne backwardation and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.07. In other markets in China, May iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodities Exchange are up 6.1%, steel rebar prices on the SHFE are up 3.5%, while the precious metals are little changed. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.5% at $55.63 per barrel. Equities were weaker on Monday with the Euro Stoxx 50 off 0.8% and the Dow closed down 0.1% at 19,799.85 – this morning the Nikkei is off 0.6%, the Hang Seng is up 0.2%, the CSI 300 and Kospi are little changed, while the ASX 200 is up 0.7%. In FX, the pullback in the dollar index has paused, the low on Monday was 99.91, the index was recently quoted at 100.25, the euro likewise is consolidating at 1.0740, as are the sterling at 1.2470, the yen at 113.16 and the Australian dollar at 0.7565. The yuan is trending higher again, albeit not in a straight line, it was last at 6.8505 and most emerging market currencies are quietly firmer, which suggests little concern on the geopolitical front. The economic agenda is busy today with a host of flash PMI data coming out. Data already out shows Japan’s PMI rising to 52.8 from 52.4, later there is PMI data out in France, Germany, the EU and the USA. In addition, there is the UK court ruling regarding Article 50, UK public sector borrowing requirement, US existing home sales and Richmond manufacturing index – see table below for more details. The base metals are split into three camps, nickel and tin are weak and looking vulnerable, we wait to see if the strength in other metals leads to bargain hunting; aluminium is the opposite, prices are now consolidating having raced higher since early January, while copper, zinc and lead prices are edging higher and look well placed to extend gains, but seem in no hurry to do so. Overall, sentiment seems to remain bullish, but in the run-up to the Chinese Lunar New Year, we would expect consolidation and further choppiness as trading volumes start to thin. The precious metals have had a strong run, the markets are still waiting for the US administration to announce more policy and in the absence of any shocks, consolidation may well set in. Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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- it is duly empowered to supply the Information and Service(s) to the Client for the purposes specified in this Agreement and that the Service(s) and its use by the Client as specified in this Agreement will not infringe any intellectual property rights of any third party.
- Although Fastmarkets will use all reasonable endeavours to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the Services, neither Fastmarkets, the Data Sources, or any third-party provider will be liable to the Client (or any third party) for direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage, including but not limited to loss of data, trading or other economic losses, arising out of any reliance on the accuracy of the Information (including but not limited to data, news and opinions) contained in the Service(s) or resulting in any way from the supply (or failure of supply) of the Services. However, Fastmarkets accepts liability for physical loss or damage to the Site caused by its negligence or wilful misconduct.
- Except as expressly stated in this agreement, all express or implied conditions, warranties or undertakings, whether oral or in writing, in law or in fact, including warranties as to satisfactory quality and fitness for a particular purpose, are excluded.
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понедельник, 23 января 2017 г.
Metals prices start the week firmer, gold prices remain upbeat
Gold prices remain upbeat with fresh highs set this morning at $1,219.55 per oz, silver and platinum prices are generally following gold’s lead, while palladium prices leapt higher on January 20 to fresh highs for 2016-2017 at $793.50 per oz and have extended those this morning to $796.50 per oz. Given potential for disappointment, or shocks, from the US administration we expect gold to remain in favour.
The base metals are bullish this morning, Monday January 23, with three-month prices on the London Metal Exchange up an average of 1.2% as of 06:48 GMT.
The charge is led by a 2.1% rebound in nickel prices to $9,895 per tonne, lead and zinc prices are up 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively, copper prices are up 1% at $5,817 per tonne, while aluminium and tin prices are up around 0.5%. Nickel has also seen the most volume with 3,463 lots traded, compared to 2,190 lots traded in copper – total volume as of 06:48 GMT was 10,560 lots.
The rebound in the base metals comes after a varied performance on Friday that saw aluminium prices climb 1.5%, lead prices climb 1.2%, while tin and nickel prices dropped 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively, zinc was little changed and copper prices ended the week at $5,757.50 per tonne.
In precious metals this morning, prices are up an average of 0.6%, with spot gold prices at $1,216.40 per oz. This was after a 1.9% rally on Friday, which was led by a 4.8% rise in palladium prices and 2.1% rise in platinum prices.
In Shanghai, the base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are up an average of 1.4% this morning, and are led by a 3.2% rise in lead prices, with zinc and aluminium prices up either side of 2.3%, copper prices are up 1.3% at 47,040 yuan per tonne, while nickel and tin are off either side of 0.5%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 1% at 46,800-47,000 yuan per tonne, the spread is either side of level and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.10.
In other metals in China, May iron ore prices are down 3%, on SHFE steel rebar prices are down 2.2%, gold prices are up 0.9% and silver prices are up 0.6%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are slightly weaker at $55.40 per barrel.
Equities closed firmer on Friday with the Euro Stoxx 50 and Dow closing up 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. This morning, the Nikkei is off 1.3%, but a stronger yen is weighing on that, the Hang Seng and Kospi are little changed, the CSI 300 is up 0.3% and the ASX 200 is down 0.8%. Markets still seem to be in wait-and-see mode regarding US president Donald Trump’s first moves.
In FX, the dollar index is weakening, it was recently quoted at 100.28, extending its recent weakness – this seems to be on continued disappointment that the new US president has yet to share his plans. As a result, currencies are stronger with the euro at 1.0747, sterling at 1.2459, the yen at 113.34, the Australian dollar is at 0.7570, the yuan is firmer at 6.8567, as are most of the emerging market currencies we follow – even the Mexican peso is stronger at 21.420, compared with a low of 22.037.
The economic agenda is fairly light, Japan’s all industries activity climbed 0.3%, Germany’s Bundesbank monthly report is out later, there is data on Chinese leading indicators, EU consumer confidence and European Central Bank president Mario Draghi is speaking – see table below for more details.
Most of the base metals pulled back to consolidate last week, some more than others with tin and nickel falling the most, while aluminium bucked the trend with prices setting fresh highs. This morning, however, prices are rebounding or pushing higher in the case of aluminium, lead and zinc. The underlying tone seems to remain bullish, but we would expect markets to be choppy this week as they react to policy announcements from the new US administration and ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year that starts on Friday January 27, but with businesses activity likely to slow ahead of that.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
| Overnight Performance | ||||
| GMT | 06:48 | +/- | +/- % | Lots |
| Cu | 5817 | 59.5 | 1.0% | 2190 |
| Al | 1854 | 9 | 0.5% | 2046 |
| Ni | 9895 | 205 | 2.1% | 3463 |
| Zn | 2800 | 47.5 | 1.7% | 2455 |
| Pb | 2330 | 27.5 | 1.2% | 401 |
| Sn | 20325 | 115 | 0.6% | 5 |
| Average | 1.2% | 10,560 | ||
| Gold | 1216.4 | 6.5 | 0.5% | |
| Silver | 17.139 | 0.079 | 0.5% | |
| Platinum | 981.3 | 7.3 | 0.7% | |
| Palladium | 791.7 | 4.7 | 0.6% | |
| Average PM | 0.6% | |||
| SHFE Prices 06:49 GMT | RMB | Change | % Change |
| Cu | 47040 | 620 | 1.3% |
| AL | 13675 | 295 | 2.2% |
| Zn | 22895 | 540 | 2.4% |
| Pb | 18850 | 590 | 3.2% |
| Ni | 83050 | -340 | -0.4% |
| Sn | 145510 | -820 | -0.6% |
| Average change (base metals) | 0 | 1.4% | |
| Rebar | 3181 | -70 | -2.2% |
| Iron ore | 608 | -19 | -3.0% |
| Au | 273.35 | 2.4 | 0.9% |
| Ag | 4128 | 24 | 0.6% |
| Economic Agenda | |||||
| GMT | Country | Data | Actual | Expected | Previous |
| 4:30am | Japan | All Industries Activity m/m | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 11:00am | Germany | German Buba Monthly Report | |||
| 2:00pm | China | CB Leading Index m/m | 1.0% | ||
| 3:00pm | EU | Consumer Confidence | -5 | -5 | |
| 11:30pm | EU | ECB President Draghi Speaks | |||
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воскресенье, 22 января 2017 г.
суббота, 21 января 2017 г.
пятница, 20 января 2017 г.
четверг, 19 января 2017 г.
среда, 18 января 2017 г.
вторник, 17 января 2017 г.
понедельник, 16 января 2017 г.
воскресенье, 15 января 2017 г.
суббота, 14 января 2017 г.
пятница, 13 января 2017 г.
Comex copper rally stalls in broad-based downturn
Comex copper prices were on pace to end the week on a dour note amid a combination of poor Chinese data and the dollar inching higher.
Copper for March delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) fell 0.35 cents or 0.1% to $2.6680 per lb. Trade has ranged from $2.6420 to $2.6710 per lb.
Overnight, Chinese macroeconomic data disappointed – the dollar-denominated trade deficit was $40.8 billion while in yuan terms it was a sub-par 275 billion yuan.
“Right now, we are seeing a relatively mixed tone in the group, with lead leading the complex in terms of the winners,” INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said.
Looking ahead, markets are expected to grow jumpy next week ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Plus, the Chinese New Year begins on January 28, which should reduce liquidity, leading to outsized price movements.
Copper prices drift
- Copper has been on a rollercoaster the past couple of sessions with prices hitting a one-month high yesterday before succumbing to selling pressure today.
- Still, investors are bullish after a week of mostly positive Chinese data and possible supply disruptions at Chile’s Escondida mine.
- “There is also a lingering downside risk technically, the rally is developing signs of a potential top and is vulnerable to a deeper setback if prices fail to take out the November 2016 high. But without confirmation from its price action, we will maintain our cautiously bullish bias for now,” Metal Bulletin analyst Andy Farida said.
- Chinese imports of unwrought copper and copper products rose 29% month-on-month to 490,000 tonnes in December, the highest level since March 2016. Still, year-on-year, imports were down 8%.
- China’s imports of unwrought copper and copper-fabricated products totalled 4.95 million tonnes in 2016, up 2.9% on the previous year, according to preliminary customs data released on Friday January 13.
Currency moves and data releases
- The US dollar index stood at 101.45, up 0.1% against last session’s close.
- The central bank of China recently set the yuan middle rate against the US dollar at 6.8909, slightly stronger than 6.9141 on Thursday.
- In data, Core retail sales month-over-month in November rose 0.2%, below the forecast of 0.5%. Retail sales over the same period exceeded expectations with a 0.6% uptick, 0.5% was called for.
- The production price index (PPI) for December increased 0.3% month-over-month, besting the projection of 0.1%. Meanwhile, core PPI – excluding food and energy components – failed to meet predictions of a 0.3% rise, coming in at 0.2%.
(Editing by Lau Wei Jun)
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четверг, 12 января 2017 г.
Metals prices consolidate after strong gains and ahead of uncertainty
Base metals prices on the LME are consolidating at lower numbers this morning January 13 with prices down an average of 0.7%, this is after a bullish day yesterday, January 12, when prices climbed an average of 2%. We see the performance on the LME as being driven by profit-taking ahead of the weekend and ahead of what may well be a choppy market next week in the run up to the US presidential inauguration. Zinc, lead, nickel and copper prices are down between 0.8% and 1%, aluminium prices are off 0.4% and tin is little changed as of 06:27 GMT and volume has been above average with 8,224 lots traded. Copper prices are at $5,821 per tonne, yesterday’s high being $5,884 per tonne.
Precious metals have edged lower overnight, spot prices are off 0.3% on average, led by a 0.5% fall in palladium prices, while gold prices are off the least with a 0.1% fall to $1,194.98 per oz – yesterday’s high was $1,207 per oz. The strength of the bullion market, running in parallel with other markets, suggests some investors are buying into gold as a hedge against the possibility of market shocks as president-elect Donald Trump takes power.
In Shanghai, the base metals prices are quite polarised with nickel prices down 1.6%, tin prices down 1.2%, lead and zinc down around 0.9%, while aluminium is up 1.4% and copper prices are up 0.5% at Rmb 47,230 per tonne. Nickel is off following the surprised decision by Indonesia to allow some nickel ores to be exported, this for the first time since January 2014, while aluminium prices are up on rumours of capacity cuts in China – if true then that is a surprisingly bullish and altruistic development considering how relatively high aluminium prices are and the country’s record of over production. Spot copper prices are up 0.9% at Rmb 47,200-47,400 per tonne, which means they are slightly backwardated compared with the March futures, while the futures forward curve itself remains in a contango out to August. The LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.11.
In other metals in China, May iron ore prices are down 0.1% on the DCE, on SHFE, steel rebar is down 0.8%, gold prices are little changed and silver prices are off 0.7%. In international markets, spot Brent crude prices are down 0.1% at $56 per barrel.
Equities were weaker yesterday – the markets did not seem overly impressed with the president-elect’s speech on Wednesday afternoon and that seems to have weighed on the overall bullish sentiment. The Euro-Stoxx 50 closed down 0.6%, the Dow closed down 0.3%, but Asia seems to more upbeat having been generally lower this time yesterday. This morning, the Nikkei is up 0.8%, the Hang Seng is up 0.4%, the CSI 300 is up 0.1%, but the Kospi is down 0.5% and the ASX 200 is off 0.8%.
In FX, the dollar index is still looking heavy at 101.39, the low on January 12 was 100.73, so it has rebounded to some extent, but the nearterm trend looks to be to the downside now. Conversely, the euro is firmer at 1.0629, as is the yen at 114.73, the aussie at 0.7493, while sterling at 1.2162 continues to languish in low ground weighed down by Brexit concerns. The yuan is consolidating around 6.6650, the peso remains weak at 21.8100 and the other emerging market currencies we follow are for the most part flat-to-firmer.
The economic agenda is busy, data out already has focused on China’s trade balance – the trade surplus dropped 8.5% in US dollar denominated terms, with exports in December off 6.1% and imports up 3.1%, compared with December 2015. Data out later includes German WPI, Bank of England credit conditions survey, with US data including retail sales, PPI, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflationary expectations, plus business inventories. Central bank speakers include UK’s MPC Michael Saunders and FOMC member Patrick Harker – see table below for more details.
The base metals are generally upbeat, especially three-month aluminium prices that just topped the November high at $1,794.50 per tonne by trading at $1,795 per tonne yesterday and again this morning. Copper, lead and zinc are all trending higher again, although they are pausing this morning, tin prices remain stuck sideways and while nickel prices had been rebounding since early January, they fell on Wednesday and spiked lower yesterday. This is not surprising given the change in Indonesia’s stance on ore exports – given the development it is surprising price have not sold off more – for now the market is likely to remain volatile as the ins and outs of the new rules are worked out. Given the potential for market-moving surprises when the new US administration takes over a week today, we would not be surprised if traders start to step to the sidelines, which is likely to lead to more consolidation and choppy trading.
Gold prices are leading the precious metals higher and we see this as a factor of more cautionary safe-haven buying being done because of the geopolitical uncertainty that lies ahead.
| Overnight Performance | ||||
| GMT | 06:27 | +/- | +/- % | Lots |
| Cu | 5821 | -55 | -0.9% | 2650 |
| Al | 1781.5 | -7.5 | -0.4% | 2508 |
| Ni | 10240 | -85 | -0.8% | 1533 |
| Zn | 2716 | -28.5 | -1.0% | 1198 |
| Pb | 2197.5 | -20.5 | -0.9% | 327 |
| Sn | 21015 | -10 | 0.0% | 8 |
| Average | -0.7% | 8,224 | ||
| Gold | 1194.98 | -1.07 | -0.1% | |
| Silver | 16.708 | -0.062 | -0.4% | |
| Platinum | 971.7 | -2.3 | -0.2% | |
| Palladium | 752.4 | -3.6 | -0.5% | |
| Average PM | -0.3% | |||
| SHFE Prices 06:29 GMT | RMB | Change | % Change |
| Cu | 47230 | 240 | 0.5% |
| AL | 13255 | 185 | 1.4% |
| Zn | 22240 | -190 | -0.8% |
| Pb | 18450 | -165 | -0.9% |
| Ni | 85230 | -1360 | -1.6% |
| Sn | 148750 | -1850 | -1.2% |
| Average change (base metals) | 0 | -0.4% | |
| Rebar | 3185 | -27 | -0.8% |
| Iron ore | 605.5 | -0.5 | -0.1% |
| Au | 270.8 | 0.1 | 0.0% |
| Ag | 4104 | -29 | -0.7% |
| Economic Agenda | |||||
| GMT | Country | Data | Actual | Expected | Previous |
| 12:00am | US |
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
|
|||
| 2:47am | China |
USD-Denominated Trade Balance
|
40.8B | 47.6B | 44.6B |
| 2:50am | China |
Trade Balance
|
275B | 345B | 298B |
| 7:00am | Germany |
German WPI m/m
|
0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 9:30am | UK |
BOE Credit Conditions Survey
|
|||
| 9:30am | UK |
MPC Member Saunders Speaks
|
|||
| 1:30pm | US |
Core Retail Sales m/m
|
0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 1:30pm | US |
PPI m/m
|
0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 1:30pm | US |
Retail Sales m/m
|
0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 1:30pm | US |
Core PPI m/m
|
0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2:30pm | US |
FOMC Member Harker Speaks
|
|||
| 3:00pm | US |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
|
98.6 | 98.2 | |
| 3:00pm | US |
Business Inventories m/m
|
0.3% | -0.2% | |
| 3:00pm | US |
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
|
2.2% | ||
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Gold lower after yesterday’s surge
By Ellie Wang
The gold price moved lower during Asia morning trading hours on Friday after reaching multi-month highs yesterday amid a weakened dollar following a disappointing press conference by US President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday.
The spot gold price was recently quoted at $1,192.50/1,192.80 per oz as of 11:47 Shanghai time, down $3.50 from the previous day’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,191.15 to $1,196.75 so far today.
Trump’s comments during his first press conference since winning the US presidential election in November did little to instil confidence in his ability as the upcoming US president, instead fuelling greater market uncertainty, which subsequently saw the dollar slide.
Gold in response surged to over the key psychological level of $1,200 on Thursday, the first time since November.
US Fed Chair Janet Yellen later on Thursday said that she was upbeat over the US’s short-term economic outlook, adding that the economy is doing well and that there were no serious obstacles ahead in the near term.
However, she did express some concern towards longer term issues such as widening income inequality and weak growth in labour productivity.
•The US dollar index stood at 101.53 as of 11:24 Shanghai time, up 0.11% against last session’s close.
•US weekly unemployment claims came in at 247,000 on Thursday, lower than expected 266,000, a bit higher than previous week’s 237,000.
Silver, PGMS down
•In other precious metals, the spot silver price was down at $16.705/16.685 per oz as of 11:50 Shanghai time.
•Platinum was down $3 at $969/974 per oz as of 11:51 Shanghai time while palladium decreased $1 to $753/758 per oz.
•On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 270.75 yuan ($39.24) per gram as of 11:30 Shangai time, up 0.02% compared with yesterday’s close.
•On the SHFE, the June silver was at 4,111 yuan per kg as of 11:30 Shanghai time, a decrease of 0.53% compared with yesterday’s close.
Currency moves and data releases
•The US dollar index stood at 101.53 as of 11:24 Shanghai time, up 0.11% against last session’s close.
•The central bank of China recently set the yuan middle rate against the US dollar at 6.8909, slightly stronger than 6.9141 on Thursday.
•In equities, the Shanghai Composite was at 3123.58 as of 11:26 Shanghai time, down 0.14% compared
(Editing by Kyle Docherty)
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Comex copper price surges higher, breaks technical rersistance
The Comex copper price hit a one-month high on Thursday January 12, having being mired in a tight range over the last week.
Copper for March delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed 4.10 cents or 1.6% to $2.6515 per lb. Earlier this morning, the contract peaked at $2.6595, its highest since December 11.
Copper benefits from supply concerns
- Throughout the week, strong US and Chinese data has prevented metals from selling off.
- Consumers are also beginning to restock, with inventories in LME-listed warehouses falling a net 2,525 tonnes to 285,700 tonnes.
- “Signs of a developing top in copper are starting to surface but sharp declines in the dollar, ongoing declines in LME copper stocks and news that China’s November scrap copper imports managed a year-over-year gain of 8% should cushion the market against a wholesale washout in prices,” The Hightower Report said in a daily note.
- And continuing contract negotiations at Chile’s Escondida mine, the world’s largest open-pit copper mine, hint at more disruptions in 2017 after a quiet 2016.
Economic data and currency moves
- US unemployment claims between December 29 and January 5 at 247,000 were below the forecast of 266,000.
- Import prices in December disappointed at a 0.4% gain, missing expectations of a 0.8% rise.
- Later today, the release of natural gas storage figures and a 30-year bond auction are scheduled.
- The central bank of China recently set the yuan middle rate against the US dollar at 6.9141 on Thursday, slightly stronger than Wednesday’s 6.9235.
LME technical issues
- LMEselect was out of service for several hours this morning due to a connectivity failure that prevented trading.
- Asia-based traders were frustrated by the inability to trade, while the exchange’s telephone helpline also crashed during the outage, which only added to the exasperation.
- “The closure could have caused an issue if you had stops in and you couldn’t do anything about them – there could be consequences but I have yet to hear of anyone being badly burnt,” an LME trader said.
(Editing by Mark Shaw)
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Gold price breaks above $1,200/oz as dollar sinks
The gold price broke above the key psychological $1,200 per oz level for the first time since November on the morning of Thursday January 12 in London amid a weakening dollar following a disappointing press conference by US president-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday.
The spot gold price was recently quoted at 1,203.65/1,203.95 per oz, up $10.15 on the previous close. Trade has ranged from $1,192.90 to $1,207.00 so far.
“Precious metals prices are stronger this morning, with spot gold prices recapturing $1,200 per oz – we have seen the run-up in gold prices as being driven by a fresh safe-haven buying ahead of the geopolitical uncertainty that the changeover of US presidents brings,” Metal Bulletin analyst William Adams said.
Trump’s comments during his first press conference since winning the US presidential election in November did little to instil confidence in his leadership abilities, instead fuelling greater market uncertainty, which subsequently saw the dollar slide. Gold and crude oil prices meanwhile edged higher.
“Gold will remain finely tuned to political comments and developments from Trump and his team,” HSBC analyst James Steel said.
“If the economic nationalists, who want to impose tariffs and increase infrastructure spending, have greater influence, we believe gold will likely trade higher. If the economic conservatives on Mr Trump’s team, who are more aligned to cutting taxes, cutting spending, and deregulation, are more influential, then gold may not do as well,” he added.
Silver, PGMs up
• In other precious metals, the spot silver price was up almost 20 cents at $16.895/16.945 per oz.
• Platinum was at $986/991 per oz, up $17, and palladium climbed $5 to $754/759 per oz.
• “Silver and platinum are following gold’s lead, while palladium prices, which have been showing independent strength, are consolidating ahead of November’s highs,” Adams said.
Currency moves and data releases
• The dollar index stood at 101.05 as of 10:00 London time, down 0.54% on the last session’s close. The dollar closed down at 101.61 yesterday.
• Despite market expectations, Trump failed to deliver much awaited details regarding his massive stimulus plan.
(Editing by Wei Jun Lau)
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Gold prices push ahead, recapture $1,200 per oz
In the absence of an LME Select price feed, we will focus on SHFE trading this morning January 12. The base metals on SHFE were trading down an average of 1.4% as of 06:25 GMT, led by a 3.7% fall in tin, with nickel off 2.2%, lead down 1.5%, zinc off 1.2%, copper off 0.1% at Rmb 46,900 per tonne, while aluminium is bucking the trend with a 0.4% gain. Spot copper in Changjiang is up 0.2% at Rmb 46,770-46,970.
In other metals in China, May iron ore prices are up 2.1% on the DCE, on SHFE steel rebar prices are up 1%, gold prices are up 0.1% and silver prices are off 0.2% as they consolidate recent gains.
Equities were firmer yesterday January 11, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.1% and the Dow went on to climb 0.5%, this despite the speech from president-elect Donald Trump that did not mention much on policy and was more about fire-fighting his own situation. Lack of meat on the policy skeleton may well disappoint markets and set the market up for increased volatility in the weeks and months ahead. Equities in Asia are generally weaker this morning with the Nikkei off 1.2%, the Hang Seng is off 0.7%, the CSI 300 is down 0.4%, the ASX 200 is down 0.1%, while the Kospi is up 0.6%.
In FX, the dollar index may also be showing disappointment as the index has fallen to fresh recent lows with the index at 101.24. Conversely the euro is edging higher at 1.0627, the yen is firmer at 114.36, the aussie is racing higher at 0.7466 and even sterling is getting a bit of a lift, it was recently quoted at 1.2237. In other markets, the yuan is slightly firmer at 6.9096, as are most of the other emerging market currencies we follow, with the exception of the Mexican peso that is in low ground at 21.9090, compared with around 18.5000 before the US election. The general strength in EM currencies seems to be based on the stronger commodities, but it also suggests little broad based fear ahead of the US inauguration.
Data out earlier today showed Japan’s economic watchers sentiment climbed to 51.4 from 48.6, later there is data on French CPI, Italian and EU industrial production, the minutes of the ECB monetary policy meeting, with US data including initial jobless claims, import prices, natural gas storage and the Federal budget balance. In addition, FOMC members Charles Evans and Patrick Harker are speaking this afternoon – see table below for more details.
LME base metals put in a mixed performance yesterday January 11, with most of the metals giving up earlier gains – indeed by the close yesterday prices were down an average of 1.1% having started European trading up an average of 0.3%. Aluminium was the only metal to end in positive territory, while nickel prices dropped 4.2%. Although the trend so far this year has been bullish, we would not be surprised to see traders lighten-up ahead of the US inauguration and with that eight days away trading may well start to get more choppy – although the weaker dollar may provide some support. That said, any weakness in the dollar may mean confidence in the new US administration is waning, which could be a negative for markets generally.
Precious metals prices are stronger this morning with spot gold prices recapturing the $1,200 per oz level – we have seen the run up in gold prices as being driven by a fresh safe-haven buying ahead of the geopolitical uncertainty that the change-over of US Presidents brings. Silver and platinum are following gold’s lead, while palladium prices that have been showing independent strength are consolidating ahead of November’s highs. We remain bullion for gold as a safe-haven.
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среда, 11 января 2017 г.
Copper upturn proves fleeting; markets await Trump speech
The Comex copper price returned to negative territory in early trading on Wednesday January 11 but remains in a tight range, with market participants standing pat ahead of Donald Trump’s press conference.
Copper for March delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange edged 0.3 cents or 0.1% lower to $2.6055 per pound.
Gold for February delivery was recently at $1,184.60 per oz, down 90 cents or 0.1%. Earlier this morning, the price touched $1,191.50 per oz, its highest since November 29.
Yesterday, the base metals broadly surged amid strong US and Chinese data. There is also optimism of future supply-side disruptions – wage negotiations at Chile’s Escondida mine are at an impasse.
“From a fundamental perspective, we think that the tightness in the concentrate market will spill over in the refined market, which should result in a drop in visible inventories,” Metal Bulletin analyst Boris Mikanikrezai said.
“But there are no tangible signs of tightness in the refined market yet and speculative positioning is already fairly bullish so we are cautiously optimistic,” he added.
Later today, US president-elect Donald Trump will hold a press conference ahead of his inauguration on January 20. A lack of clarity about his future policies has pushed market participants to the sidelines.
“A number of market participants are likely to have been positioning themselves ahead of the press conference that Donald Trump has announced for today,” Commerzbank said. “The market hopes that Trump will paint a clearer picture of his planned economic, trade and foreign policy.”
Also providing support is the London Metal Exchange’s commitment of traders report for the week ending January 6, which showed that, while money manager activity has been quiet, gross short positions generally remained low.
“Speculative financial investors on the LME began the New Year in highly optimistic mood and have left their net long positions – most of which are at a relatively high level – largely unchanged,” Commerzbank added.
In US data, crude oil inventories are scheduled for release later.
In European equities, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 were up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, while the dollar strengthened by 0.4% to 1.0514 against the euro.
In other commodities, West Texas Intermediate light sweet crude oil futures on the Nymex rose 0.6% to $52.00 per barrel and Comex silver for March delivery was 0.5% lower at $16.770 per oz.
(Editing by Mark Shaw)
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